1. Detailed Multi-Layered Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) as of June 13, 2025

Step 1: Overall Trend Assessment (Price Action, Structure, Market Context)

• Current Price: $105,477.27
• 3-Month Trend: Strong uptrend from ~$82,000 in March to multiple ATHs above $110,000 in May/early June, despite periodic significant drawdowns.
  • Notable pullbacks are absorbed quickly by strong buying; consistent higher lows and higher highs.
• Recent Behavior: After the mid-May peak ($111,970), BTC pulled back sharply to ~$103,000 on June 5, bounced near $110,000 (June 10), then fell back towards $105,500.
• Current Volatility: Substantial, with intraday swings exceeding $2,000–$3,000, and consistently high trading volumes.

Step 2: Candlestick and Short-Term Price Action Analysis

• Daily candles: Last 3 days form a sequence of lower highs and lower closes (bearish engulfing on June 11, strong downside follow-through June 12).
• Intraday analysis (hourly bars):
  • After steep drop June 13, BTC stabilized between $104,700–$105,900 for >10 hours with a mild bullish drift and tight range.
  • No impulsive reversal yet; short-term upside effort meets selling near $105,900.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Strong Support: $104,000–$104,700 zone (multiple reactions).
  • Immediate Resistance: $105,900–$106,000 (cap on rebound attempts).
  • Major Resistance: $110,000–$112,000 (recent highs, supply zone).

Step 3: Key Technical Indicators

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
  • 20-day SMA (approx): $107,300 (price below—short-term bearish).
  • 50-day SMA (approx): $106,500 (price below—bearish signal).
  • 200-day SMA: ~$95,000 (strong, underlying bull structure).
• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • Daily RSI (est.): ~45–50. Neutral/leaning slightly oversold after sharp drop. Potential for relief bounce, but not deeply oversold (no strong mean-reversion impulse yet).
• MACD (Daily): Negative divergence as price made higher highs in late May/early June, but MACD failed to confirm (classic warning of exhaustion). Recent downside cross confirms short-term bearish bias.
• ATR (Average True Range): Elevated. Daily ATR of $2,500+ over recent days reflects increased volatility; risk of further whipsaws.

Step 4: Volume Profile & Market Sentiment

• Volume:
  • Pullbacks accompanied by surging volume—aggressive profit-taking near highs and increased panic/stop-hunting on breakdowns.
  • Recent consolidative sessions see declining volume—signaling indecision after major drop.
• Sentiment:
  • Macro still bullish (broader uptrend, institutional interest), but short-term traders have turned more cautious post-failed highs.

Step 5: Chart Patterns/Market Structure

• Formation: Possible topping pattern (double/triple top) near $111,000.
• Recent Move: Failed upside breakout above $110,000; sellers have absorbed all aggressive bulls, initiating correction to $104,000s.
• Current Zone: Possible bear-flag/pennant forming, with downside momentum pausing.

Step 6: Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Analysis

• Elliott Wave:
  • Likely in wave 4 corrective phase of larger uptrend; fifth wave higher possible—but only after further consolidation or deeper retracement.
• Fibonacci Retracement:
  • From $95,000 swing low to $112,000 top: 38.2% retracement = $105,575 (current price!). Key level; if this breaks, next levels in $103,000–$104,000.
  • 61.8% retracement = $101,340 (if support fails, next big target).

Step 7: Statistical/Quantitative Approaches

• Mean Reversion:
  • Price currently in lower quartile of recent 1-month range, but not at maximum oversold extremes. Previous bounces set up only after larger drops.
• Moving Average Envelope: Price hugging lower envelope—pressure persists with risk of breakdown.
• Seasonality: Historically, Q2-Q3 sees volatility spikes for BTC, with both sharp rallies and corrections.

Step 8: Market Risk Evaluation

• Event Risk: Macroeconomic/policy risk, ETF flows, crypto regulation, or liquidation cascades can spark sharp moves in either direction.

Conclusions & 24H Outlook

• Bias: Short-term momentum is to the downside; failed rally attempts and negative momentum indicate strong sellers above $106,000. Bulls have not regained control yet.
• Critical Level: If $104,700–$105,000 is lost decisively, expect acceleration to $103,000 or even $101,500 (next major support). Upside limited to $106,000–$106,200 unless a high-volume reversal appears.
• Optimal Strategy: Short (Sell) at or just below market, targeting the lower edge of current range, with stops above recent resistance.

Prediction:

• Expect BTC to test and possibly break toward $103,000–$104,000 over next 24 hours, barring a large bullish catalyst. Watch for false breakouts and sharp intraday reversals due to volatility.

Trade Plan:

• Sell (Short) at $105,450 (Optimum Entry): This places entry just below current price and below minor support. (Alternatively, use limit entry if brief push to $105,700–$105,900.)
• Take Profit: $103,100: At/near next major support/fib retracement/previous lows. Consider scaling out partial profits at $104,200 if high volatility spikes.
• If stopped, re-evaluate at $106,200+ with possible reversal setups.

Summary Table:

Factor	Bias
Short-Term Trend	Bearish
Volume Pattern	Bearish
Indicators	Bearish
Candle Structure	Bearish
Pattern Context	Bearish
Macro Structure	Bullish

Conclusion: Sell/Short BTC for next 24 hours targeting a move toward $103,000–$104,000.