Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) — 2025-06-14

1. Macro Trend Examination

Bitcoin has experienced a robust bull run in the past three months, rising from a low near $75,000 (April lows) to test new historical highs above $111,900 (May 22nd). A retracement ensued to the $101,500 region, followed by attempts to reclaim the $110k+ zone. The current print is $104,888, suggesting BTC is in a consolidation phase after a euphoric up-move.

• Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows from late March through early June validate the dominant uptrend.
• Support and Resistance: Key resistance recently formed around $111,800–$112,000; supports at $104,000, $101,500, and $97,000 stand out.

2. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

• Candlesticks (Daily/Hourly): The past 24 hours have seen a sequence of lower highs and wicks in the $105,000 area, with tails dipping toward $104,400. This suggests buyer absorption of downward pressure but with waning momentum.
• Pattern: Emerging symmetrical triangle/sideways channel between $105,800–$104,400, a classic consolidation before trend continuation or reversal.

3. Volume Analysis

• Context: Volume has declined since the recent local top near $110,000. Yesterday’s moderate spike on the drop to $104,400 followed by swift recovery hints at dip-buying interest, but absence of follow-through suggests hesitancy among bulls.

4. Moving Averages

• Short-term (20 EMA, 50 EMA): BTC is trading at or just below short-term moving averages, suggesting indecision; an hourly cross down is present, indicating possible intraday weakness.
• Long-term (100/200 SMA): Still trending well above the longer-term moving averages, confirming macro bullishness. Pullbacks to these zones ($100k / $97k) are attractive for longer-term positioning.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Daily/Hourly): Hourly RSI oscillates near 40–45 (mild oversold territory), while daily RSI hovers around mid-50s. No extreme readings; room for both downside test or upside resumption.
• MACD: The hourly MACD line is below the signal line, confirming short-term bearish/mixed pressure, with a possible bullish crossover building in the next 2–3 candles if support holds.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Bands: Bollinger Bands (hourly) are narrow (squeeze), underlying the current consolidation. A sharp move is likely within 24–36 hours as volatility reverts to mean.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

Plotting from the $111,900 high to the $101,575 low:

• 61.8%: $107,694
• 50%: $106,738
• 38.2%: $105,782 Currently, BTC is below the 38.2% retracement and struggling to reclaim the 50%, suggesting the local bias leans bearish unless price can close above $106,700.

8. Order Book Flows / Market Depth (Implied)

Based on wicks and repeated rejections at $105,000+, supply seems active above $105,800; dip absorption seen near $104,400–104,500. Whales appear to be defending $104,400, but not aggressively chasing higher.

9. Elliott Wave Principle

Given the 3-month impulsive rally and recent churn, this consolidation could be the 4th wave, with a final 5th impulse pending. However, loss of $104,000 would invalidate this wave structure in the short term and favor a deeper correction.

10. Price Action — Trade Framing

• Breakdown attempts below $104,400 have been bought up swiftly, suggesting strong hands below.
• However, every rebound into $105,000–$105,400 has been sold, indicating resistance and short-term exhaustion.

11. Correlation & Sentiment

• Alternative digital assets are also showing mixed performance. Potential ETF flows and macro data drops are due early next week, which could add volatility.

12. Synthesis and 24-Hour Outlook

• Probability: With consolidation range tightening, odds favor a volatility expansion event soon. The dominant trend is up, but near-term the inability to reclaim $106,000 and repeated failures at $105,800 warrant caution.
• Bias for Next 24h: Short-term weakness with likely test of lower support ($104,400), perhaps brief wick into $104,000. If this level breaks decisively, risk of fast drop into $102,800–$103,200. Otherwise, a hold and reversal above $105,000 could fuel retest toward $106,000, but upside appears capped barring a strong catalyst.

13. Risk Management and Setup

• Trade Opportunity: Given unfavorable risk/reward for chasing longs here, probability suggests taking a tactical short (sell) position on loss of intraday support, targeting a move to $102,800–$103,400. Stop loss should be above $105,800 (recent range highs) to minimize drawdown if the move reverses.

Summary: Short-term consolidation is likely to resolve to the downside over the next 12–24 hours, with a test of $104,000 zone; below $104,000, selling pressure may accelerate to the $103,000 area. Caution warranted above $105,800; the bullish macro context limits deeper drawdowns, but tactical short favorable for next session.

Final Recommendation: Sell (Short Position)

• Open Price: $104,800 (current price, allow for marginal slippage)
• Close Price/Take Profit: $103,200 (prior local support, first oversold pocket on reaction)

Tight stops and active monitoring advised due to potential for rapid reversals from the buy-the-dip crowd.