Bitcoin on the Brink: Bearish Momentum Signals Looming Drop—Time to Sell Short?

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)

Analysis Date: 2025-06-15 21:00 UTC
Current Price: $104,706.13

---

1. Trend Analysis: Medium to Long-Term

• Macro Trend (3 months):
  • BTC exhibited a significant uptrend from mid-March, rallying from $81,000 to a peak above $111,000 on 2025-05-22.
  • Since the peak, strong volatility took over with whipsawing price action — notable corrections to ~$101,000, but subsequent recoveries failed to break new all-time highs.
• Short-Term Trend (30 days):
  • Prices have found strong resistance around $111,000, and support around $101,000.
  • Price action in June displays lower highs ($110,294 → $110,257 → $108,686 → $106,090) and slightly lower lows ($105,929 → $105,472 → $104,731 → $101,575), indicating a shift into a consolidation or minor downtrend.
• Recent 48 Hours:
  • Sideways-to-bearish movement: Failing bounces toward $105,700 are followed by swift sell-offs to sub-$105,000 and a close near session lows.
  • High selling pressure when testing above $105,500, with sellers dominating the past five 4-hour candlesticks.

2. Chart Pattern Recognition

• Double/Triple Tops:
  • Multiple attempts above $111,000 have failed (2025-05-21/22, 2025-06-10/11), showing a clear resistance zone and exhaustion from bulls.
• Descending Channel Formation:
  • On the 1H and 4H, price action is tracking inside a shallow descending channel, capping rallies and quickening selloffs.
• Support/Resistance Flip:
  • The zone around $105,400–$105,800, previously support in June, now acts as intra-day resistance.
• No reversal patterns:
  • No clean double-bottom or bullish reversal structure detected on the 1H or 4H chart.

3. Volume Profile / Order Flow

• Climax Selling Volume:
  • Sustained high volume ($35B–$59B/day) accompanies the recent declines, particularly during 6/12 and 6/13 selloffs.
• Distribution Characteristics:
  • Larger volume on red candles versus green since $110,000 was lost, suggesting long-term holders are distributing positions into strength.
• Real-time Intraday:
  • The last two 1-hour candles saw near-peak hourly volume near $10B combined, as prices were pressured lower.

4. Key Technical Indicators

A. Moving Averages

• 50 EMA (Estimate):
  • Daily 50 EMA ≈ $106,000 (recent price is below, indicating bearish short-term momentum)
• 200 EMA (Estimate):
  • Daily 200 EMA ≈ $99,000 (remains major long-term support)

B. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• 1D & 4H:
  • Recent estimated RSI on 4H has sharply dropped from 55–60 (neutral) to near 40 (modestly oversold but not a reversal signal yet)
  • Daily RSI ~47–50, showing loss of momentum but not yet deeply oversold — more room for downside.

C. MACD

• Daily & 4H:
  • Both signal lines trending downward; histogram steeper negative, confirming bearish crossover and a momentum shift lower post $110k rejection.

D. Bollinger Bands

• 4H:
  • Price hugging lower Bollinger Band and closing below its median. Bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility and a trend acceleration to the downside.

5. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (From 2025-03-18 swing low to 2025-05-22 high)

• Key Levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$100,800
  • 38.2%: ~$97,350
  • 50%: ~$96,000
• Recent price action is testing above the 23.6% Fib (~$101,000), but failing to establish a rally, which is usually considered a weak bounce in bull markets — indicating possibility for another leg lower toward the 38.2% level.

6. Price Action & Candlestick Analysis

• Intraday:
  • Last several hourly candles: lower highs, lower lows, closing at or near session lows, confirming persistent seller control.
  • 1D candle (6/15) prints a solid red body, engulfing prior day range.

7. Market Sentiment & Positioning

• Sentiment:
  • Market now appears risk-off after repeated failures to reclaim $109–$110k level.
  • Leverage flush and lack of spot buying suggest aggressive buyers have exited and sellers dominate short-term.

8. Volatility Tools

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Elevated and rising on both 4H and 1D charts, consistent with sharp directional moves and less mean reversion — increases probability of trend continuation downward, at least to next major support.

9. Synthesis & Next 24-Hour Prediction

After combining:

• Rejection at key resistance ($105,400–$105,800, $110,000+)
• Lower highs/lows and strong sell volume
• Bearish momentum on all major indicators (EMA, RSI, MACD, Bollinger)
• Loss of short-term support and risk of breakdown toward 23.6–38.2% Fibonacci

Probability is elevated for further downside over the next 24 hours before buyers attempt to reclaim momentum. Barring sudden macro news, a retest of $104,000 (next strong support) and potential wick lower into the $102,800–103,500 zone is likely. A relief bounce is possible there, but bias remains short until proven otherwise.

---

10. Professional Trade Management

• Entry: Optimal open price is as close to $104,700–104,800 as possible (waiting for a minor uptick to avoid illiquid entry).
• Exit/Profit: Target close/TP at $102,900, just above prior major supports and the 23.6% Fib — also aligns with high-confluence volume profile zone from late May. This ensures capturing the likely leg down while avoiding the risk of a snap reversal from aggressive dip buyers.
• Invalidation/Stop: If price pushes above $105,800 and holds ($105,800 = prior support now resistance), the short thesis may be invalid.

---

Final Call

Based on the convergence of these multiple technical factors, the optimal strategy is to open a short (Sell) position.

This analysis is for information purposes only and not financial advice.