Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) – June 18, 2025

1. Macro-Trend Analysis (Daily Timeframe)

a. Trend Structure

• Since late March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a persistent uptrend. Price lows around $82,000 in late March/early April established a strong demand zone, followed by a series of higher highs peaking at $111,970 (~May 22). Post this, price experienced two conspicuous corrections but continued to respect an overall upward sloping support line.
• Most recently, price retraced from $111,970 down to $104,390 (June 6) before a secondary recovery to $110,561 (June 9–10), then a pullback, with the current price at $104,882.
• The larger trend remains bullish, but with conspicuous volatility and sharp corrections.

b. Volume Profile

• Volume spikes are evident during large upswings (notably May 7–8 and late May), indicating institutional involvement and strong trend conviction. Volume has contracted slightly in the most recent sessions, typical in consolidation after volatility.

2. Short-term Price Action (Hourly Data, Last 24 Hours)

• Price action over the last 24 hours has seen a range between approximately $103,661 (intraday low) and $105,539 (intraday high), currently just shy of the upper range at $104,882.
• Short-term candlestick structure reveals higher lows forming after a morning dip below $104,000, showcasing a short-term rebound with solid buying response at lower levels ($103,700–$103,900).
• Several failed breakdowns below $104,000 and a successful reclaim confirm local support in the $103,700–$104,200 zone.

3. Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)

• 50 and 200-period moving averages (daily approximation) suggest price remains above most key MAs, despite not far from testing the 50-MA. This cockily upholds a bullish medium-term bias, especially since price repeatedly bounced from these trajectories during dips.
• On intraday timeframes, shorter EMAs are starting to flatten after a V-shaped rebound, warning of short-term indecision but not (yet) bearish.

b. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimated daily RSI is cooling off from overbought, likely near 55–60, consistent with consolidation. No strong divergence is evident on hourly closes – RSI made a slightly higher low while price touched a slightly lower low, hinting at potential bullish divergence.

c. MACD

• Daily MACD is compressing after a bullish burst, with histogram waning toward the zero line, suggesting momentum is resetting, not reversing. No strong bear cross evident intraday; instead, gentle positive momentum in the last few hours.

4. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support: $103,700–$104,200. This area has repeatedly triggered rebounds intraday and coincides with previous daily swing lows.
• Immediate Resistance: $105,500–$106,000. Multiple hourly highs capped near this level; breaking above would open runway to $108,000+ (recent daily supply zone).
• Major Resistance Above: $110,000–$112,000 (recent double-top zone).
• Major Support Below: $102,800-$103,000 (test of early June bottom).

5. Candle Pattern Recognition & Price Action Observations

• Last daily closes have printed several doji/hammer-like candles, denoting indecision but with increasingly aggressive lower wick buying—bullish contextually post-drop.
• Recent hourly closes have strong bullish candles after a period of consolidation—bulls are stepping in near session lows.

6. Volatility & Momentum Structure

• The Bollinger Bands (estimated) have narrowed locally, indicating a contraction in volatility and built-up energy. Given the repeated higher lows, this typically precedes a breakout move, more likely to the upside while in a broader bull trend.

7. Order Flow and Volume Imbalance

• Large green volume bars correspond to early sessions of US/EU trading, supporting buy activity. No abnormal sell-side spikes detected to threaten the new demand zone, suggesting sellers are not in control.

8. Fibonacci Analysis (Recent Swing Move: $110,561 → $104,390)

• 38.2% retracement: $106,707
• 23.6% retracement: $105,848
• Price is right between the 23.6–38.2% zone. Holding over $104,000 keeps bulls in advantage; breach above $105,850 could trigger trend acceleration.

9. Sentiment & Market Structure

• Recent series of shallow pullbacks and quick recoveries highlight a market in accumulation rather than distribution.
• No climactic or distributional topping pattern apparent.

10. Synthesis & Strategy Selection

• Trend following strategies favor the dominant uptrend, entering on retracement-confirmed support.
• Breakout traders would stalk a breach and close above $105,500–$106,000 for immediate follow-through.
• Swing traders find an attractive entry risk-reward near current support, with stops below $103,400 (last swing low).
• Shorting is contrarian here and only advised on a breakdown and close below $103,000, not currently in play.

Conclusion & Trade Plan

• The overall structure remains bullish after a healthy correction and energetic basing.
• With multiple bullish confluences (higher lows, demand absorption, supportive momentum, no topping signals, proximity to local support), the preponderance of evidence supports a BUY.

Actionable plan for next 24 hours:

• Enter a long at/near $104,900 (current price), watching for pullbacks closer to $104,400 for optimal fill.
• Target $106,800 (38.2% retracement and recent congestion) for profit.
• Place stops just below $103,400 (last hourly swing low).