Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – 2025-06-19

1. Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday)

Medium-Term Trend (Last 3 Months)

• BTC surged from ~$84,000 in late March to recent highs above $110,000. Major uptrends occurred after late-May, with repeated thrusts into new all-time highs, followed by sharp retracements.
• The last significant impulse occurred between 2025-05-21 and 2025-05-22, where BTC broke above $110,000 but faced immediate and sustained selling.
• Since early June, BTC has struggled to sustain levels above $110k, making multiple lower highs and showing increased volatility around this area.

Short-Term Trend

• Over the past 7 days, BTC failed to retest $110k, forming a modest descending trend with key local highs: $108,915 (06-16), $107,750 (06-17), $105,581 (06-18).
• The most recent daily closes show lower highs and lower lows, reflecting a corrective, potentially bearish structure.
• The last 24 hours show tight consolidation between $104,200 and $105,200, with slight downward drift.

2. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Immediate resistance: $104,800 – $105,200 (multiple intraday rejections in last 24 hours; 06-18 high at $105,581)
• Next resistance above: $106,000 – $106,800 (confluence zone from earlier this week)
• Immediate support: $103,950 (06-19 16:00 low, prior multi-hour support area)
• Key support below: $103,400 (multi-touch on strong downswings), then $102,800 (06-12 close)
• Major longer-term support: $101,500 (key pivot, 06-05 and 06-06 rebound)

3. Volume & Volatility Analysis

• Volume analysis: The last two days showed above-average sell volumes, especially during breakdowns from $110k and $106k. Intraday, volume spikes align with downward price impulses.
• ATR (Average True Range): Weekly ATR has expanded. Daily swings of $2,000+ are common, suggesting increased volatility and risk of forced liquidations and whipsaw moves in both directions.
• Volatility clustering: Price surges have rapidly reverted; volatility is not trending but appears in bursts up (failed breakouts) and down (breakdowns to support).

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Daily candles: Several daily candles in June have long upper wicks around $106k–$110k, signaling strong supply on price advances.
• Intraday: Last 12 hourly closes are consolidative, forming multiple doji-like bars near $104,300–$104,800—this is indecisive, commonly seen ahead of further volatility.

5. Moving Average Analysis

• SMA/EMA (Approximated):
  • 21-day EMA is estimated near $106,000 (recently lost as support and now acting as resistance).
  • 50-day SMA is near $104,800 (price struggling to reclaim).
• BTC now trades below short-term moving averages—a negative short-term trend signal.

6. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD)

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Daily RSI likely sits around 45–50, dropping from overbought ($110k) to neutral/slightly bearish.
  • No clear bullish divergence on hourly or daily frames; bears have short-term momentum.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD histogram turned negative at $106k break.
  • MACD lines may be crossing below zero—classic short-term downtrend confirmation.

7. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension

• [Swing Low: ~$94,315 (05-04), High: ~$111,970 (05-22)]
• 38.2% retrace: ~$105,752
• 50% retrace: ~$103,143
• 61.8% retrace: ~$100,533
• BTC is consolidating between major fib levels. Loss of $104,000–$103,000 exposes $101.5k area.

8. Elliott Wave and Pattern Recognition

• Wave count:
  • Post March: Five-wave impulsive move seems complete (ending $111k), followed by current three-wave (ABC) corrective move. Strong likelihood we are in the C leg targeting $103k–$101.5k.
• Chart Patterns:
  • Formation of a descending triangle (lower highs, flat base at $104k) on 12/24 hour. Breakdown of $104k portends further downside.

9. Market Sentiment/Order Flow

• Order book liquidity (not given) – but the pattern of frequent upper wicks and persistent resistance at $105k–$106k signals institutions selling rallies.
• Funding rates (not given) – likely neutral to mildly negative due to range contraction.
• No clear bullish reversal signs present.

10. Risk Management and Potential Triggers

• The area below $104,200 has shallow recent support, and heavy sell volumes suggest stop clusters below.
• If price rebounds to $105,200 but fails to close above, further selling expected.
• If $103,950 fails, rapid drop to $103,400 and then $101,500 is probable.

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Synthesis and 24-Hour Forecast

• Overall picture:
  • BTC is in a corrective period following a failed breakout to all-time highs. All tested recovery rallies have been sold. Intraday and daily structure point to lower highs and a compression toward critical support.
  • Intraday consolidation (in a tight range) just atop multi-touch support is a weak stance, often preceding significant breakdowns in trending markets.
• Expected:
  • Base case: High probability of a break below $104,000, with downside to $103,000–$101,500 within 24 hours as volatility expands and support clusters are liquidated.
  • Risk to call: A brief pop to $105,200–$105,500 remains possible, but unless reclaimed and confirmed on hourly closes, rallies are expected to be sold.

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Position Recommendation (Short-Term)

• Bias: Bearish – Sell/Short BTC near $104,300–$104,600.
• Entry: If price rebounds toward $104,600–$104,900, optimal entry for a short. If price stalls at current $104,300 levels, execute a partial position as breakdown risk is high.
• Profit Target: $102,800 – major Fibonacci, prior rebound. (Ambitious target: $101,500, but manage risk.)
• Stop-loss: Above $105,500 to avoid short squeeze from breakout reclaim. (Not shown in request but recommended.)

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Summary: BTC is consolidating at support after a decisive sell-off from all-time highs. Technical structure, momentum, and pattern recognition all support a near-term move lower. The risk-reward ratio is favorable for a short/trade. Sell strength or breakdowns, aiming for a test of $103,000–$102,800 area within the next 24 hours.