Comprehensive Technical Analysis: BTC/USD, June 20, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Medium-Term (Daily)

Analyzing the daily chart from March to June 2025, Bitcoin has experienced two pronounced trends:

• March–April Correction: After peaking near $88k in late March, multiple red daily candles appeared, pushing BTC down to ~$78k by April 8. This was accompanied by elevated trading volume (notably, April 7's 91B) signifying capitulation.
• Subsequent Rally & New Highs: From late April onward, a sustained uptrend emerges, with higher highs and higher lows, peaking at $111,970 (May 22). That bullish advance sustains for roughly a month, with volatile up-swings often following healthy pullbacks, and with volume supporting the advances/fake-breakdowns.
• Recent Consolidation and Range Trading: Since late May, BTC has moved mostly sideways between $104k and $111k. Most closes fall into the $104k–$106k range, with multiple failed breakouts above $107k and sharp rejections near $110k (notably on June 21).

Short-Term (Hourly & Intraday)

• The past 24 hours show a loss of momentum above $106k, with rejection at $106,521 at 8:00 UTC. Several attempts to reclaim $106k failed, and a rolling-over pattern sees price cascading lower to $103,700 (-2.1% drop from the daily high).
• Volumes rise on breakdowns (see the 18:00–20:00 hourly bars), indicating institutional selling pressure at lower levels; this increases the probability of further near-term downside unless a forcing bounce occurs.

2. Support & Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $104,800 (prior support, now resistance on re-entry attempts), then $106,000–$106,500 (upper consolidation band), $108,000 (major breakdown level), $110,200–$111,900 (cycle highs).
• Immediate Support: $103,200 and $102,400 (hourly lows from 17:00–20:00Z), then $101,575 (daily close June 5), and psychological $100,000 (major round number support).

3. Chart Patterns

• Rising Wedge Breakdown: The daily price structure from May 16 onward forms a rising wedge—typically bearish. The breakdown in late June (into today) confirms supply overtaking demand at the wedge apex.
• Head-and-Shoulders Formation: On the hourly, a head-and-shoulders topping pattern is visible with the left shoulder ($105,800), head ($106,500), and right shoulder ($105,700), with neckline at ~$104,000; recent price action confirms the breakdown below this neckline.

4. Volume Profile

• Noteworthy: Spikes in volume on red candles (selling), particularly during breakdowns, suggests distribution by strong hands; lack of large green volume on bounce attempts makes rallies suspect and susceptible to traps.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (not shown, but inferred): After peaking into overbought ($105,000–$111,000), repeated failures at higher highs, and declining closes, RSI is likely turning down toward neutral or even approaching oversold on lower timeframes, indicating weakness but not yet extreme pessimism.
• MACD (estimated): Likely crossing bearish on 4hr and daily, with expanding negative histograms confirming new downward momentum.

6. Moving Averages (Estimate Based on Price Action)

• Short-Term (20/50 EMA): Price has fallen below likely 20- and 50-hour EMAs (~$104,500–$105,000), which are now acting as resistance. In general, a cascade below key moving averages is a reversal signal.
• Daily MA-200: Still bullish on a macro level since price remains above long-term supports (~$90,000–$95,000), but short-term overextension and mean-reversion risks are elevated.

7. Volatility Analysis (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR: Elevated past two months, confirming high volatility cycles. The ATR remains wide, suggesting sizable intraday swings.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has just moved below the median band, and is not yet at the lower band, leaving room for a further dip toward $102,000–$100,000. During range contraction phases, this could also mean a sharp one-day move is imminent.

8. Order Book & Psychological Factors

• $100,000: Key psychological round number likely to attract significant interest. Below, expect stop hunts/liquidations.
• Profit-taking: Extended rally since March and failure to make new highs in June likely prompts further profit-taking by large holders.

9. On-Chain (if available; here, we infer)

• Rapid price advances tend to draw in late buyers/FOMO at cycle highs; current pullback likely to flush them towards $100,000 or lower, before real support is found.

10. Market Sentiment

• Neutral to slightly wary: Late buyers are underwater, and the absence of a sharp bullish reaction at $104k-$106k warns that sentiment has turned more cautious in the short-run.

11. Elliott Wave (Projection)

• May have completed a 5-wave rally from $80k to ~$112k. The current drop can be seen as an A-wave of an ABC corrective pattern, with potential for a B-wave bounce followed by a further C-leg down—likely targeting $101,500–$100,000.

12. Fibonacci Levels

• Retracement from $80,000 (late April) to $112,000 (May high):
  • 23.6% Fib: ~$104,440 (breached)
  • 38.2% Fib: ~$100,930
  • 50% Fib: ~$96,000

13. Synthesis: Prediction & Tactical Trade Plan

• While the macro trend remains bullish (above MA-200, large institutional flows), the immediate setup is bearish. Volume and price structure favors more downside volatility before stabilizing near $101,500–$100,000. A decisive break below $103,000 could accelerate a stop-run toward those lower supports.
• In the next 24 hours, BTC is likely to retest the $102,400–$101,575 area and may see a spike below $102,000 to shake out weak longs before stabilizing or rebounding. Short-term bounces toward $104,200–$104,800 are possible, but they are likely to be sold into unless accompanied by a visible volume surge and reclaim of $106k.

Conclusion: Trade Recommendation

Given technical weakness, topping patterns, support break, and rising selling interest, the risk/reward favors a short (Sell) position on relief bounces. The optimal short entry is on a bounce toward $104,000–$104,200, with a profit target near $101,600.

If you are risk-averse, wait for another failed bounce attempt at $104,200; for aggressive entries, open immediately near $103,700 (current price). Place a stop-loss above $105,000 to protect against a sucker rally.

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Summary Table:

• Trade: Sell (Short)
• Optimal Entry: $104,000 (bounce into resistance)
• Profit Target: $101,600
• Stop-Loss: $105,000 (not a take-profit, but critical for risk management)

The trade expects a 2.3% move in the next 24 hours. Monitor volume at supports and reactions near $101,600 for possible reversal signals.