Bitcoin Breakdown Alert: Bearish Signals Mount as Key Supports Face Test

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

Daily Chart Structure & Price Action

• Primary Trend: The long-term chart shows a massive BTC uptrend since April, with a series of impulsive moves followed by shallow pullbacks.
• Recent Action: Since peaking above $111,970 on May 22, price has entered a broad, slightly descending range ($102,200-$111,000), with several attempts to test both upper and lower bounds.
• Current Candle: The current daily close at $102,879.71 forms a small-bodied candle near the session low, following a significant drop from $106,500. This suggests increased seller dominance lately.

Hourly Chart Observations

• Intraday Structure: Today, BTC was pressured down from morning highs in the $103,800s to lows near $102,264 before attempting a minor bounce to close at $102,879.
• Short-Term Weakness: The sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 17:00 UTC, especially the sharp drop at 18:00/19:00 UTC (on high volume), flags active distribution.
• Attempted Recovery: The rebound into the daily close has been relatively uninspiring and came with lighter volume—a ‘dead cat bounce’ look.

2. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 50-period SMA (Daily): Estimated at ~$105,000, price is now below, signaling a loss of immediate bullish momentum.
• 200-period SMA (Daily): Still below current price, so the broader uptrend is intact, but risk of a deeper short-term correction is rising.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: Likely near 40-45 (based on price action), indicating loss of upside momentum, but not yet in oversold territory. More room for downside before technical demand arrives.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped to ~35 on intraday sell-off, recovered somewhat to ~40. Short-term, sellers remain in control.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD: Bearish crossover last week, with momentum bars deepening. Suggests further downside.
• Hourly MACD: Just started a weak bullish cross as price bounced—but given volume pattern, this looks likely to reverse quickly.

Volume

• High selling volume at and after 19:00 UTC: Suggests further distribution, not capitulation—potential for more downside as support is tested.

Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• Price has fallen below the middle band (20-SMA) and is heading for the lower band, which currently sits near $102,000. This provides only a small area for support before a potential spike in volatility.

3. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

Recent Candles

• June 21 daily candle: Small bodied, lower-close, following a thicker bearish engulfing pattern on June 20. Indicates short-term exhaustion.
• Hourly Candles: Long lower wicks during the bounce ($102,276-$102,850) suggest weak buying attempts.

Range Breakdown Potential

• The critical horizontal support sits at $102,200-$102,300. Failure to hold this opens risk toward mid-May swing lows ($101,500).

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Support: $102,200 (Friday’s low)—if broken, next is $101,575 (June 5 low).
• Major Resistance: $103,600-$104,000 (hourly breakdown, prior bounce highs), then $106,500 (recent daily high before drop).

5. Fibonacci Retracements

• Measured from May’s swing low ($100,436) to June’s high ($111,970):
  • 38.2% Retracement: ~$107,804 (already lost)
  • 50% Retracement: ~$106,203
  • 61.8% Retracement: ~$104,601 – just broken down from here last session, signaling bears in control.

6. Momentum Oscillators & Volatility

• Several volatility spikes coincided with breakdown attempts. ATR is elevated, pointing to possible extended moves following breaks of critical levels.
• Stochastic on daily: Bearish and not oversold.

7. Orderbook & Market Structure (Sentiment)

• After days of range congestion ($104,000-$107,000), the breakdown today seems to have triggered stops. Little evidence of strong buying interest stepping in as yet.
• Weekend trading—lower liquidity, so moves can extend further than expected.

8. Elliott Wave Context

• The move up from April through May completed a clear impulse (Wave 1-5). Current structure resembles a corrective ABC pattern, potentially seeking a deeper retrace before resumption of uptrend.

9. Synthesis & Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Given the:
  • Recent technical breakdown below 61.8% Fib retracement
  • Loss of the 50-SMA (daily),
  • Rising volume on declines
  • Weak bounce attempts and no evidence of panic-selling capitulation
• Scenario: BTC likely to retest critical support at $102,200-$102,300. If this breaks, expect a probe to $101,575. Potential for an overshoot as stop-losses cluster below $102,200.
• Upside risk: Only if price can reclaim $104,000-$104,500 on strong volume does the short-term bias neutralize. Not favored currently.

10. Trade Plan

• Bias: Sell (Short Position)
• Optimal Open Price: Place short entries at minor rebound levels after failed bounce—ideally in the $102,900-$103,100 zone.
• Take Profit Target: $101,600 (just above the next significant daily support at $101,575).

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