Step-by-Step Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis for June 22, 2025

1. Chart Structure & High Timeframe Trend Analysis

Examining the daily candle chart, BTC has been extremely volatile in recent weeks:

• From late March to late April, there was a strong uptrend lifting price from ~$82k to over $110k with significant volume surges visible on positive days (April 21, May 1, May 8, May 21).
• After peaking at $111k (May 22-23), price action transitioned into a broad, choppy range between $102k and $111k, with pronounced price rejections both at tops and bottoms, forming a large consolidation pattern.
• Notably, daily highs have been forming lower highs since the major $111.9k wick on May 22.

2. Recent Price Action and Volatility

• Over the past week, BTC failed several times to break and hold above $106k (June 16, 18, 20), and each rally was aggressively sold, with a swift move down to $99.7k on June 22.
• On June 21 and 22, intraday action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, with strong downward momentum culminating in today’s close below $100k for the first time in over a month.
• The short-term direction is decisively bearish, driven by sustained volume on red days and an absence of buying strength near historical supports (no significant bounce at $100k, the psychological anchor).
• Intraday volume from June 22 suggests forced liquidations and panic selling (high sell volume per hour, especially 16:00, 19:00 UTC).

3. Trend Indicators

• 50-EMA & 200-EMA (estimated, visualization only): Given the strong uptrend-to-consolidation, the 50-EMA is likely rolling over, possibly around $105k, while the 200-EMA lags below around $97k-$98k. The price is now below the 50-EMA and testing or under the 200-EMA on the hourly/daily, signaling potential for breakdown continuation.
• MACD: Would likely be negative and widening, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): On the daily, RSI would be approaching oversold but not deeply so, given the swift correction—probably in the 35-40 range. This favors further downside before triggering a robust reversal.

4. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • Key support at $99,000 is lost intraday.
  • Next key support zones: $97,000 (historical), $94,000 (April swing high), $92,400 (May retest zone).
• Resistance:
  • $100,500–$101,000 (previous support, now resistance).
  • $102,400 (June 21 swing low).
  • $104,000 (recent breakdown level).

5. Momentum and Order Flow Analysis

• Volume Analysis: Recent sell-offs have been matched with strong volume. The last 24 hours show persistent distribution and signs of capitulation, yet absent is a classically climactic reversal wick.
• Orderbook/Order Flow: Likely thin bids below $99k, as price fell rapidly through recent supports, implying increased likelihood of stop-loss cascades toward next levels.

6. Chart Patterns

• Descending Triangle/Range Breakdown: The multi-week consolidation pattern was topped at ~$111k, flat-bottomed near ~$102k, and today’s price action marks an aggressive breakdown from this base, classically bearish.
• Failed Double Bottom at $102k: Multiple attempts to rally off ~$102k failed in mid-June, now confirming it as new resistance.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Using the entire swing move from the April lows ($82k) to the May highs ($111.9k):
  • 0.382 retracement: ~$100.3k (recently lost)
  • 0.5 retracement: ~$97k (next probable target)
  • 0.618 retracement: ~$93.4k The 0.5 fib aligns with the aforementioned horizontal support zone.

8. Sentiment Analysis

• Rapid breakdown on elevated volume suggests capitulation. However, the psychological round number ($100k) failing to hold suggests a shift in sentiment — from bullish dip-buying to risk-off, with traders seeking to protect profits on the year.
• Lack of significant bounce attempts on the hourly chart underscores weak buyer conviction.

9. Market Correlation & Macro Context

• BTC’s drop coincides with broader risk-off sentiment in global markets (not shown here but contextually present in June 2025 headlines). Any ongoing macro pressure amplifies this bearish technical picture.

10. Summary/Decision Matrix

All major technical signals point to further downside in the near term:

• Breakdown from multi-week consolidation and loss of psychological/theoretical, moving-averages, and Fibonacci support.
• Dominance of sell-side volume and poor intraday bounce responses.
• Key levels below ($97k, $94k) are the next magnets.

11. Execution Plan

• Short Setup: Enter short on any bounce to $99,800–$100,200 for optimal entry with stop above $101,000 (prior support-turned-resistance zone). Target $97,000 as next major support and primary profit-taking zone.

Conclusion: Initiate Short Position

The path of least resistance is down. Open a short on retracement toward $99,800, set take profit at $97,000 for a high-probability move. If $97k fails, price could accelerate to $94k or below.

Risk Management: Maintain strict stop above $101,000 as reclaiming this prior support would negate immediate bearish thesis. Reassess rapidly if reversal signs emerge (large bullish engulfing candle on volume or failed breakdown with persistent buying).