Detailed Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – Post-June 24, 2025

1. Overview and Recent Price Context

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $106,125.11 as of June 24, 2025. Over the past three months, BTC surged from the $84,000-$87,000 range to recent all-time highs above $111,000 before consolidating in the $104,000-$106,000 zone. The price action reflects typical post-rally volatility amidst robust trading volumes and a highly active spot and derivatives market, as evidenced by persistent high daily volumes (often exceeding $50B).

2. Timeframe Selection and Chart Pattern Recognition

• Daily Chart: Reveals a robust uptrend since early April, punctuated by medium-term corrections (~8-10%) before resuming upward moves. Notable is the strong recovery from the $99,000 area on June 22 with two powerful bullish candles, negating the short-lived dip below $101,000.
• Hourly Chart (last 24h): The price fluctuated from a low near $104,800 to a recent high at $106,279, with a generally bullish structure characterized by tight consolidation after the prior two-day surge.
• Patterns Identified:
  • A sustained higher-high, higher-low pattern from June 22 onward (bullish structure).
  • Short ascending channel visible on the hourly, suggesting continuation until a break occurs.
  • Minor resistance observed at $106,300–$106,295 (intraday high), minor support at $104,800–$105,000 (recent hourly lows).

3. Technical Indicators Analysis

Trend Indicators

• 50 & 200 SMA (Daily): 50SMA is above the 200SMA; the upward slope signals strong medium/long-term bullish momentum. No imminent death/golden cross risks.
• MACD (Daily): Remains above the zero line with expanding histogram, indicating positive momentum post-pullback.
• ADX: Readings likely above 30, consistent with a trending, non-rangebound environment.

Oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Estimated around 65–72 — slightly overbought but not at extremes, suggesting room for further upside before risk of major correction.
• Stoch RSI (Hourly): Showed a bullish cross on June 23 as the price rebounded, though is now approaching the upper bound, hinting at modest short-term consolidation or a shallow pullback.

Volume Analysis

• Granular hourly and daily volumes surged during the upmove (especially on June 22–23), confirming rally legitimacy. Recent hours show lower but steady volumes — indicative of healthy consolidation, not distribution.

Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Daily): Expanded, moving from ~$2,000 to nearly $3,500 per day, reflecting an environment where sharp swings are the norm.

Support/Resistance

• Current intraday resistance: $106,250–$106,300 (multiple taps, minor rejection)
• Major nearby resistance: $107,800, $109,700, $111,600 (previous swing highs)
• Immediate support: $105,000, then $104,000 and $103,300 (prior consolidation floor)

4. Market Structure, Order Flow, and Liquidity

• The strong rally from $99k-$105k swept considerable liquidity while stop-loss hunts below $101k purged weak longs, providing fuel for new upside.
• Current tight range ($105,000–$106,200) suggests institutional-sized position building, confirmed by muted price reaction to modest volume spikes.
• Little sign of aggressive selling; more likely profit-taking from short-term traders rather than dedicated bear activity.

5. Intermarket and Macro Factors

• Macro sentiment: Bitcoin remains buoyed by optimism surrounding ETF inflows, global monetary easing expectations, and rising demand from both retail and institutional players.
• Risk factors: Overextended US equities, potential macro shocks, but so far, Bitcoin decouples and retraces shallowly on equity hiccups.

6. Composite Forecast (24 hours)

Taking all technical and market factors into account:

• BTC is in a bullish continuation phase but near-term resistance ($106,300) may cause a minor rejection or sideways action before the next leg above $107,800.
• Downside is protected by strong buying around $104,800-$105,000; only a decisive hourly close below $104,000 would invalidate the setup and suggest deeper pullback.

7. Trade Strategy and Execution

Optimal trade is to buy a slight pullback, anticipating a breakout of $106,300 and an extension toward $107,800–$108,000 over the next 24 hours. However, risk management is crucial considering recent volatility.

• Entry should be as close to $105,700 (recent mid-pivot support, just above $105,000 swing lows) as possible, but not chasing highs above $106,200.
• Exit/Take profit at $107,800, which coincides with the next historically significant resistance and likely profit-taking zone.
• Place a stop-loss below $104,000.

8. Synthesis and Decision

The probability-weighted outcome (65-70%) is a bullish push toward $108,000 following the current consolidation. Buy dips, don’t chase spikes!

9. Scenario Management

• If BTC spikes above $106,300 in the next two hours, wait for a small pullback before entry.
• If BTC reverts to $104,000, re-evaluate for breakdown risk.

— In summary:

• Trend: Strong bullish with healthy consolidation.
• Ideal Entry: Dip near $105,700.
• Target: First test of $107,800 within 24 hours.
• Risk: Medium, but technicals and flows favor bulls.

BUY on dips, set clear targets and stops.