Exhaustive Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) – June 26, 2025

Step 1: Trend Analysis (Daily & Intraday)

a. Long-Term Trend (3-Month View):

• BTC displayed an impressive rally, rising from ~$82,000 at end-March to over $107,000 currently.
• The uptrend had acceleration points (notable jumps) around April 21 and May 21, both tied to surges in volume, followed by sustained higher trading ranges.
• Corrections have been sharp, but V-shaped recoveries prevail.

b. Medium-Term (30-Day):

• May 22–June 10 rally drove price from $105,000 to highs near $112,000.
• June 11–22 had consolidation and volatility, correcting from $110,000 to as low as $99,000, before bouncing hard to current levels.

c. Short-Term (Past Week):

• June 23 breakout from $101,000 area; aggressive buying pushed to $107,000+.
• Intraday candles (past 24 hours) show trading between $106,700 and $108,200 with repeated tests of both highs and lows, indicating consolidation with bullish bias.

Step 2: Support & Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support Levels: $106,900 (minor), $105,500 (major), $104,700 (intermediate), $101,000 (long-term pivot).
• Immediate Resistance Levels: $108,200, $109,000, $110,000, and ultimate spike highs at $112,000.
• Current Price Zone: $107,767.5 sits just below resistance. Prior 24-hour candles show repeated failures to break above $108,200.

Step 3: Volume Profile Analysis

• High volumes during breakouts: e.g., on June 23 ($65B), June 25 ($51B), and sporadically during corrections.
• Intraday volume on rebounds (per hourly chart) is higher on rallies, suggesting strength behind buyers.
• Recent volumes are high enough to validate current upmove, but tapering in the last few hours denotes some hesitation around $108,000.

Step 4: Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages (Hypothetical 10/20/50 SMA):

• 10-period SMA likely above 20 and 50, supporting bullish short-term momentum; price holds above probable 50SMA support at ~$106,000.
• Golden cross pattern (short-term MA > long-term MA) recently reaffirmed by recent rally.

b. Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• Based on price action, RSI is estimated near 68–72 (approaching overbought, but not fully extended).
• Minor bearish divergence possible, as price is testing highs but momentum is flattening.

c. MACD Indicator:

• MACD line (short-term EMA minus long-term EMA) turned positive at June low, with persistent positive histogram.
• However, signal line is catching up, with narrowing gap, which warrants caution for bullish momentum.

Step 5: Chart Patterns and Price Action

• Ascending Consolidation: Higher lows and relatively flat highs at $108,200 suggests ascending triangle formation intraday, a common bullish continuation pattern.
• Volume on Breakout Attempts: Strong, but not extreme. Breakouts above $108,200 were swiftly rejected multiple times, indicating a battle at this supply zone.
• Candle Wicks: Long lower wicks at $106,800–$107,100 hint strong buying on dips.

Step 6: Volatility and ATR (Average True Range)

• Recent moves are 2–3% intraday swings (~$2,000–$3,000), confirming high volatility. ATR is expanding, a bull market signature.
• However, volatility is slightly decreasing in the last day, hinting at consolidation before another trend move.

Step 7: Market Sentiment & Momentum

• Macro: No sign of capitulation; every sharp selloff is quickly bought.
• Micro: Buyers control trend, but gravity at $108,200 is significant.
• No sign of distribution (no high-volume sell candles near current highs).

Step 8: Fib Retracement Analysis

• From $99,000 (recent swing low) to $108,200 (recent swing high), 38.2% fib is ~ $104,800, 61.8% at $102,600.
• Price rebounded at these zones during June 22–24, reinforcing their importance as support.
• Current price is near the “golden pocket” for further upside extension.

Step 9: Risk Assessment, Reward/Risk, and Trade Plan

• Bullish arguments:
  • Higher highs and higher lows
  • Tight consolidation just below resistance usually resolves higher
  • No major selling despite repeated tests of resistance
• Bearish counterpoints:
  • Overextension from June bottom (nearly 8% up in under three days)
  • Small bearish divergences on momentum
  • Resistance at $108,200 and psychological $110,000 could trigger profit-taking
• Probability-Weighted Move: Bullish bias, but ideal entry is on a dip given current minor exhaustion.

Synthesis & Forecast

Prediction: BTC is likely to break above $108,200, testing $109,500–$110,000 within the next 24 hours, supported by sustained demand and high participation on dips. The optimal long entry is slightly below the median price of the recent range for risk minimization ($107,200 area). Tight stop (<$106,700) is warranted should triangle fail.

Target: Take profit near next major resistance at $109,800, slightly below the $110,000 psychological and order flow threshold.

Stop loss (not asked, but strategic): Consider $106,700 or below for exit if move fails.

Conclusion

• Comprehensive multi-factor technical analysis strongly favors a cautious Buy on a retrace, targeting upside breakout continuation.

This conclusion is based purely on technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Monitor for major news, on-chain, and ETF flow events which can override technical signals.