Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – June 27, 2025

1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis

Daily Overall Trend

The data shows Bitcoin’s price moving from the mid-$80,000s in late March to over $107,000 at present. After the breakout above the $95,000 resistance (early May), we observe a persistent bullish trend, marked by clear higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action reflects consolidation above $105,000, with several rallies challenging the $110,000 region, hinting at upward momentum, albeit with some volatility-driven retracements.

Short-Term Momentum & Volatility

Over the past 24 hours, intraday ranges have largely oscillated between $106,500 and $107,600. Volume on the most recent candles is moderate to high, confirming genuine trading interest. The absence of sharp price breakdowns suggests current market participants are absorbing available supply around this level. Notably, the market has become more reactive as seen in wicks testing both ends of the range.

2. Technical Indicator Assessment

A. Moving Averages

• 50 SMA and 200 SMA (Daily):
  With the sustained bullish action since late April, the 50-day moving average is likely above the 200-day (bullish crossover, or Golden Cross), supporting ongoing macro uptrend. The price is consistently above both moving averages, reinforcing a strong buy bias.

• 21 EMA (Short-Term):
  Short-term pullbacks (especially visible mid-June) are finding support around the $105,000 region, indicating the 21-EMA is acting as dynamic support.

B. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily & 4H:
  The consolidated movement and frequent tests of $107,000 with swift recoveries imply the RSI remains in the 60-70 band. Price stays below major overbought territory, leaving room for further upside moves. Importantly, no strong bearish divergence is apparent, so current strength is sustained.

C. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily:
  With a strong uptrend and consolidative pause, the MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram, though narrowing, remains in positive territory. That setup typically precedes another potential bullish leg unless a sharp reversal occurs.

D. Bollinger Bands

The price has hugged the upper Bollinger Band over the last five sessions, with only brief mean reversions. This is a typical indicator of a trending scenario — short pullbacks, minimal mean reversion — bullish signal.

3. Chart Patterns & Price Action

A. Support & Resistance Zones

• Major Support: $104,000 (previous consolidation and EMA/SMA cluster)
• Near-Term Support: $106,500 (recent intraday lows)
• Immediate Resistance: $107,800–$108,300 (local highs over past days)
• Major Resistance: $110,000–$111,800 (monthly highs, supply concentration)

B. Candlestick Patterns (Hourly/4H)

• Recent 4H candles show long lower wicks around $106,500 (buyers stepping in). Upper shadow rejections at ~$107,600 indicate minor profit-taking, not structural reversal. Overall candlestick structure remains constructive, with no bearish engulfing patterns.

C. Volume Analysis

• Elevated volume on recovery moves from support, with lighter volume near resistance, suggests a demand-driven rally is intact. Some profit-taking near $107,800 but no panic-selling; overall, healthy volume profile supports further upside.

D. Volatility Metrics (ATR)

• ATR is rising slightly, which means volatility is elevated but manageable, often common before a breakout or expansion from a consolidation zone.

4. Advanced Techniques & Confluence Factors

A. Fibonacci Retracement

• Measuring the impulsive move from the $101k swing low (June 22) to the $108.3k recent high yields key retracement supports at $106,000 and $104,500 (38.2%/61.8%, respectively). Price has held above $106k, validating bullish control.

B. Ichimoku Cloud

• Price is trading above the Cloud, and Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is above the Kijun-sen (base line). Lagging Span is above price, confirming momentum. Cloud support lies below $106,000.

C. Order Block & Liquidity Sweep Analysis

• Liquidity sweeps below $106,500 have induced sharp reversals, indicating stop-runs are being bought up. No major liquidity vacuum above; next supply cluster is $108,000–$110,000.

D. Elliott Wave Count

• Mid-June corrective action aligns with wave 4. The rally since June 23 could be construed as wave 5 extension, targeting new highs above $108,000–$110,000 before meaningful short-term correction.

E. Wyckoff Methodology

• Recent price structure matches Accumulation/Markup phase: strong phases of demand after retests, volume confirming breakouts, and little evidence of Distribution.

5. Sentiment & External Factors

• Market Sentiment: Social and derivatives data (not present but inferred from volume + price resilience) point to moderate bullish sentiment without evidence of euphoria, which is optimum for trend continuation.
• Macro/News Flow: Absent direct catalysts in the data, but the persistent upward drift implies no significant bearish news. ETF inflows, halving afterglow, and institutional buy build-up narrative remain constructive for BTC.

6. Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Base Case: BTC continues to grind upward. Expect retests of $107,800–$108,300, with a breakout to $110,000 possible if high-timeframe buyers step in. Downside risk remains contained above $106,000 barring external shocks.
• Aggressive Target: Move towards $110,000 test, with possible wick extensions to $111,500 if short squeeze triggers above local highs.
• Downside Limit: Breach of $106,000 would open up $104,500–$105,000 test but probability is low given current structure.

7. Final Confluence and Trading Plan

• Given the strong cluster of technical supports, underlying uptrend, bullish momentum on all major technical signals, and tactical intraday price action, the setup is optimal for a calculated long entry. Risk/reward to the upside is attractive.

Combining all indicators, signals, and methodologies: The technicals favor a Buy (Long Position) on slight dip entries, with targets towards range resistance and new highs.

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Recommended Trade:

• Entry (Open a Buy/Long): $107,000 (on minor retracement/intraday dip)
• Take Profit (Close): $109,900 (next resistance, just below round number and liquidity magnets)

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Recommendation: Buy (Long Position) on minor dip near $107,000; target $109,900 within 24 hours. Risk moderation suggested with stops below $106,250 for position sizing.