Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of BTC on 2025-06-29

1. Trend and High Time-Frame Structure

Examining the daily OHLC chart data shows a powerful, persistent bull trend since April 2025. Notable key breakouts occurred around 97,500 and then again at the psychological threshold of 100,000, both of which later served as strong support (May 22, June 22). Throughout May and June, price has largely respected a rising channel, with increasing higher highs (e.g., 110,744, 111,970) and higher lows (notably around 100,000 and 105,000).

2. Volume Analysis

Bullish price expansions have been supported by consistent volume surges (notably June 22-24 and June 25-26, and again on minor dips with rebounds). Very high volume on recent upward candles signals continued participation from institutional traders and trend followers. Flat-to-moderately increased volume on minor pullbacks near support suggests absorption rather than distribution.

3. Short-Term Action (24h and Intra-Day context)

The recent hourly chart shows a tight range between 107,250 and 108,500 for the past 24h, following a quick rally from a low near 106,900. The range is becoming compressed with higher hourly opens/lows and consistent closes near the top of hourly candles — a sign of strong intraday bidders. Dips to 107,250-107,300 are quickly bought. Volatility is declining but remains higher than average, indicating the next range expansion could be imminent.

4. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate and Strong Support: 107,000-107,200 (multiple touches, strong bounces)
• Secondary Support: 106,450 (prior day low)
• Topside Resistance: 108,500 (yesterday's hourly peak/high liquidity), 109,000 (short-term swing)
• Major Resistance: 110,700 (June high)

5. Indicators and Tools

a. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages for both the 1H and 4H are below the current market price and sloping upwards, evidence of strong momentum and support for dip buying. Crossovers in late June signaled another bullish expansion move after consolidation.

b. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• 1H RSI: Oscillating between 58 and 65 — bull zone, but not overbought. Quick pullbacks are staying above 50.
• 4H RSI: Around 60, with recent momentum spikes to 70 on rallies, confirming a trend but not signaling exhaustion.
• Daily RSI: Stable around 60-65, indicating potential for further continuation without excessive risk of mean reversion.

c. MACD

Both 4H and daily MACD show a bullish bias with expanding histogram bars and a bullish crossover during the recent rally. No evidence yet of negative divergence. The hourly MACD shows consolidation but still above the signal line suggesting upward momentum could resume.

d. Bollinger Bands

The price is hugging the upper half of the Bollinger Bands on the 4H and daily, indicating persistent strength. On the 1H, bands are narrowing, signaling potential volatility expansion is near.

e. Fibonacci Retracement (Last Swing Low to Swing High)

• Fib 0.382/0.5 retraces are at 107,000 and 106,550 — matching perfectly with short-term support zones. Thus, any dip to these levels attracts buyers.

f. Candle Pattern & Price Action

No major bearish engulfing or reversal patterns present. Consistent closes near candle highs across the past 24 hours, and bullish pinbars on 107,300-107,450 region, suggest strong demand.

g. Order Flow & Book Structure (Inference)

Given the quickness of rebounds from the 107,300-107,400 region and consistent volume during small pulls, there is likely resting institutional demand just below current price.

6. Volatility Regimes and Breakout Probability

Current volatility has compressed compared to previous sessions, as visible in the tight hourly range but volume remains robust. Such volatility compression in an uptrend often precedes a volatility expansion — statistically, these expand with the trend unless clear exhaustion markers are present (which are absent).

7. Psychological & Market Context

• The next round-number barrier is 110,000 — markets tend to probe these psych levels after consolidation.
• Recent history shows sharp momentum through each 5,000 increment (e.g., 105,000 to 110,000)
• There’s no sign of distribution or reversal — the bull market structure is intact and accumulating.

8. Quantitative Edge & Risk/Reward

• If buying near 107,400 (current):
  • Targeting a run to 109,500–110,000 zone (+1.7% to +2.4%)
  • Downside risk to 106,400 (-0.9%)
  • 2:1 or better risk/reward favoring the bull side with higher probability given trend, order flow, compression breakout setup, and lack of exhaustion signals.

9. Conclusion/Signal Synthesis

All technical, momentum, and price structure factors suggest a trend continuation. The best trade is to buy on minor dips at/just below 107,400 (ideally around 107,300), targeting an expansion move into the 109,500–110,000 level within the next 24 hours as the compressed range resolves upwards. No strong reversal or fade signal present. A sell/short setup is NOT justified under current conditions.

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Summary

Decision: Strong Buy.

• Open Price: 107,300 (buy-the-dip recommendation; just below current price and near key support/pinbar zone)
• Close Price (Take Profit): 109,700 (prior to major round-resistance and likely liquidity sweep)

Tight stop below 106,400 recommended if managing risk actively (not formal part of this output).

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Trend, momentum, orderflow, and volatility signals all align for further bullish price expansion in the near term.