Step 1: Market Structure and Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (3-Month Chart):
  • Uptrend: BTC has progressed from ~$82K (early April) to ~$107.6K (end of June), showing a strong upward channel. The steep and relatively consistent rise, punctuated by sharp corrections and recoveries, marks a healthy bullish structure typical of extended crypto bull cycles.
  • Recent Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Notable junctures (e.g., 5/21: $109,678; 6/9–6/11: $110,294–$110,257), indicating continuation.
  • Consolidation Breakouts: Following consolidations (ex. late May and late June), BTC broke upwards, respecting dynamic support zones.

Step 2: Short-Term Trend, Momentum and Retracement

• June Analysis:
  • After a brief retracement to ~$100,987 on June 22, BTC rebounded aggressively to the $106K–$108K level, with high volume on bounces, particularly on 6/23 and 6/25.
  • Recent RSI/Momentum Behavior (inferred): Rapid pullbacks followed by quick recoveries suggest shallow overbought signals — classic for strong uptrends as corrections are bought quickly.
• June 29–30 (Hourly Analysis):
  • Range: 106,800–108,700; price oscillating, but not breaking lower supports — a sign of accumulation.
  • Recent pullback: Dip to $106,958 on 6/30/14h, rejected quickly and bought up to $107,750 within 5 hours. Buyers are defending dips.
  • Volatility tightening: Lower hourly ranges suggest coiling — usually a precursor to a breakout, direction typically following the prevailing trend (up).

Step 3: Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance:
  • $108,700–$108,900 (local highs and supply zone).
  • $110,000+ (May/June double-tap and recent highs — psychological and historical resistance).
• Key Support:
  • $106,800–$107,000 (multi-hour dip zone; reliable bounce area).
  • $105,600 (mid-range consolidation baseline eliminated on 6/25–28 — would mark trend break if lost).

Step 4: Volume Profile & Order Flow

• Volume Surge on Significant Swings:
  • Notable spikes on dips and breakouts (6/22, 6/24, 6/29). High volume at higher prices denotes acceptance, not rejection. This supports further upside.
  • Lower volume on sideways moves (eg. last 24h, especially 6/30 00:00–14:00), suggesting reduction in active sellers and possible base formation for an upward move.

Step 5: Technical Indicators (Inferred)

• RSI:
  • As the price is pushing highs but retracing frequently, RSI likely oscillates between 61–70. This is healthy bullish, not overheated, offering further room to grow before overbought conditions.
• MACD:
  • MACD lines likely remain above zero, with shorter corrections. A cross-over may have occurred on the 6/22 dip but was reversed; implying momentum is returning positive.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Recent range-bound action would be tightening the bands. Price is nestled just below upper band, suggesting next volatility expansion will break towards the upside.

Step 6: Candlestick & Price Action Patterns

• Hammer/Long lower wicks:
  • Seen on major dips (esp. 6/30 14:00, 6/29 21:00), signaling buyers absorbing supply.
• Small-bodied candles in last 24h:
  • Market indecision — typical before major moves.
• No Bearish Engulfing or Trap Patterns:
  • Very limited top reversal formations; bears have failed to push price below key supports.

Step 7: Statistical & Quantitative Techniques

• Moving Averages (Inferred):
  • 20-period and 50-period MAs likely rising, providing dynamic support at $106,500–$107,000.
  • Substantial distance from longer-term MAs, but angle and price position suggest strong trend.
• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Tightening ATR in the last 12 hours suggests imminent volatility.
• Fibonacci Extension:
  • Measured from June 22 low ($100,987) to June 25 high ($108,168); extension projects $110,500–$112,000 as next upside target range.

Step 8: Sentiment & Risk Factors

• Buyer Dominance:
  • Quick absorption of selling pressure underscores accumulation.
  • Volume and price structure imply institutions or large players.
• Macro/News Sensitivity:
  • No abrupt, news-driven wicks/spikes. Action seems technical- and momentum-driven.

Step 9: Trading Decision & Execution

• Bullish Bias Confirmed:
  • Consolidation above $107,000 in a strong uptrend with little supply overhead.
  • Volatility squeeze likely resolves upward; risk/reward for long biased entries is optimal near support.
• Entry Strategy:
  • Optimal to open long between $107,000–$107,650 on any pullbacks or during low-volatility periods.
• Target:
  • Immediate: $109,700 (recent highs)
  • Extended: $110,500–$112,000 (next Fibonacci/psychological targets)
• Risk Management:
  • Cut loss below $106,000 (breach would invalidate uptrend on short term)

Conclusion: BTC is coiling for an upside breakout from a multi-day consolidation above $107k. All momentum and volatility signals align with bullish trend continuation. Ideal play is aggressive long on current price dips with tight stop, riding towards $110k+ in next 24h.

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