Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of July 1, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Macro Trend (Daily/4H/1H)

• Daily: The broader trend for BTC since April 2025 has been bullish, with price moving from $83,000 levels to new all-time highs above $111,000 by late May. After peaking, BTC consolidated in a broad range ($101k-$111k), before experiencing a sharp pullback to $100,900 in late June, and then recovering back above $107,000 in the last 48 hours. The recovery from the local bottom of $100,987 on June 22nd to $107,000+ confirms buyers are still active along trend support.
• Short-Term (Hourly): The most recent intraday action (last 24H) shows volatility, with lower highs and lower lows, but also evidence of a rounded short-term bottom near $105,400. Price has rebounded from oversold conditions, but upward momentum is less aggressive than prior rallies, indicating market indecision or possible distribution.

2. Volume Analysis

• Declining Volume on Rallies: Notably, as price moved from sub-$101k to the $106k range, volumes have generally declined, especially on advances. The heaviest volume (late June) coincided with the local bottom and short squeeze; since then, volume has not confirmed the rise.
• Volume Spikes with Local Resistance: Large hourly volume bars near $105,400-$106,000 zone suggest liquidity pools and algorithmic trading at these levels, with short-term traders quickly taking profits.

3. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Triangle Broken: The broad pattern between May and June was an ascending triangle with resistance above $111k and rising support. Breakdown occurred on June 21-23.
• V-Shaped Recovery + Bearish Retest: From June 22-23, a sharp V-bottom formed near $101k, which saw a direct bounce back to $107k by June 24-26. However, the latest price behaviors near $108k suggest a bearish retest of previous support-turned-resistance.
• Bearish Hourly Flags: The micro structure (hourly) over the last 24 hours has formed bearish flags—sharp drops followed by weak upward retracements—signaling further downside pressure is likely.

4. Support and Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance:
  • $107,300 – Last breakdown and retest zone, tested repeatedly in past 48 hours.
  • $108,400 – High set June 29, acts as resistance before main $111,000 zone.
  • $110,000–111,000 – Multi-week range high and psychological barrier.
• Key Supports:
  • $105,400 – Local micro support, hit during today’s session and defended multiple times.
  • $104,000 – Minor support from hourly closes, last significant reaction area.
  • $101,000 – Last week’s macro low and major demand zone (bullish invalidation below).

5. Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

• 50-Hour MA: Now flattening around $106,000, price fluctuating around this, indicating short-term neutrality and potential inflection.
• 200-Hour MA: Still trending up, now near $107,000; price underneath, signaling lost momentum.
• RSI (14, Hourly): Most recent readings ranging between 38-45—short-term oversold, but failure to breach past 55 on bounces reveals continuing bearish momentum.
• MACD (1H): Negative, with histogram showing weak attempts to cross over into positive territory, but rollovers at every attempt. This supports the idea of selling pressure dominating.

6. Volatility Indicators

• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bands widened significantly during last drop ($107k->$105.4k) but have tightened in subsequent hours, suggesting imminent large move (resolution). Current action hugging the lower band supports likelihood of a further move down.
• ATR (Average True Range): Hourly ATR remains elevated, supporting active volatility and potential for further quick swings in either direction.

7. Order Flow/Market Profile

• Implied Liquidity Pools: The dense cluster around $105,400-$105,900 matches recent volume spikes—market makers appear to be absorbing aggressive sellers. However, failed upside follow-through suggests they are also offloading inventory at resistance.
• Stop Zones: Aggressive traders likely placed stops below $105,400 (to force local lows), while others are likely to set stops right below macro support at $101,000.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (Recent Swing)

• From June 23 ($100,987) to June 29 ($108,526):
  • 23.6%: $106,732 (recent resistance, now flipped)
  • 38.2%: $106,029 (right where price now hovers)
  • 50%: $104,756 (matches next support)
  • 61.8%: $103,354 (structural support from late June)

9. Sentiment & Context

• Funding Rate/Derivatives Data (Extrapolated): Rapid swings combined with high volume suggest elevated leverage, potentially increasing the risk of further liquidations both up and down. Current slow momentum on rebounds warns of derivative longs being trapped.
• Macro News/Other Markets: BTC has been disconnected from equity indices over the past two weeks; absence of new bullish catalysts could stall upside.

10. Composite Signal and Synthesis

Bearish Bias for Short-Term (24 Hours):

• The combination of failed bullish retest of $107,300-$108,400, declining volume on bounces, bearish micro flags, lagging momentum (RSI/MACD), and repeated failure to reclaim fast-moving averages suggests a further test of lower support ahead.
• $105,400 represents a short-term pivot; a sustained break below triggers fast moves to $104,000 and then $101,000, where heavier demand waits. Probability of seeing deep wick below $105k is significant.
• Upside appears capped at $107,300 for now; only a decisive hourly close above there, with volume, would nullify the short-term bearish scenario.

Trade Plan:

• Look for shorts (sell) on a retest of $106,200-$106,300 resistance (confluent with minor MAs and previous sell zones). Target a move toward $104,000 as primary support, possibly deeper if selling intensifies. Stop-loss above $107,350 to manage risk.

Summary Table

Factor	Observation	Signal
Macro Trend (Daily)	Uptrend, but stalling	Neutral/Bearish
Short-term Trend (1H)	Weak, lower highs/lows	Bearish
Volume	Weak on rallies	Bearish
Patterns	Bear flags, failed retests	Bearish
Moving Averages	Price below 200h, failing 50h	Bearish
Momentum (RSI/MACD)	Weak, struggling to rise	Bearish
Support/Resistance	Resistance holding, support fragile	Bearish
Volatility	Elevated, band squeeze	High/move due

Net Result: Short-term bearish, with high probability of testing $104k support in next 24 hours.

Recommendation: Sell (Short Position)

• Open Short: $106,200 (on a weak bounce)
• Target: $104,000 (primary support, take profit)
• Stop Loss: $107,350 (above failed bullish retest/highest local swing)

Rationale: Confluence of technical signals warns of further downside pressure, with immediate rejection at resistance, inert momentum indicators, weak rebound volume, and active volatility indicating potential for quick selloff to next demand zone.