Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI

Bitcoin at Key Support: Preparing for the Next Thrust Higher?

The daily chart since April reveals a robust uptrend: BTC has advanced from ~$78,000 in early April to over $107,000 now—a 37% increase in three months.
Key periods of acceleration: late April/early May (above $90,000), notable thrusts to $110,000 in late May, and multiple successful defenses of the $105,000-$106,000 level, establishing it as strong support.
After reaching a short-term peak ($111,970) on May 22 and again in early July, BTC experienced range-bound consolidation, with dips typically supported above $105,000.

Recent two weeks show an uptrend with higher lows ($101,575 → $105,652 → $106,796) and higher highs ($110,561 in June, then $110,541 in July), but with clear resistance in the $109,000–$111,000 zone.
Short-term support appears around $107,000 (frequently retested in the last 3 sessions). Each drop below $107,500 has met with rebounds.

Volume spikes align with price surges (notably May breakout and late June/early July pushes), often marking local tops.
Recent 24-hour intraday candles show increasing volume during drops ($753M at 18:00, $4.3B at 19:00, $5.9B at 20:00), suggesting strong participation on support retests.
No major sell-off volume, indicating consolidation rather than distribution.

Daily ATR (Average True Range) is ~2,000 to 2,500, based on recent highs/lows.
The last 24 hours had a high of ~$109,733 and a low of ~$107,315 (~2.2% swing, in line with the ATR): volatility normal, not excessive.
The hourly chart (the last 29 hours) shows a stair-step pattern down, but with local bases solidifying near $107,500—suggesting absorption by buyers rather than capitulation.

Major Resistance: $109,600–$110,500 (multiple failed attempts and intra-session rejections).
Immediate Support: $107,300–$107,600 (several bounces off this zone in the last 12 hours).
Historical Support/Breakout Level: $105,500–$106,000 (prior consolidation zone and previous daily closes).
Pivot Zone: $108,500–$109,000 (short-term neutral range, prior hourly closes).

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): Estimated 20 EMA sits around $108,500, 50 EMA at $106,500; the current price is sandwiched right between these—neutral in the very short term.
Price is oscillating around the 20 EMA: a common consolidation pattern before a breakout, with buyers absorbing dips.

Estimated RSI (hourly) is just below 50, daily sits between 55–60: not overbought, not oversold, room for upward movement or further chop.
Price is digesting previous gains, eliminating weak longs, while no significant bearish divergence is apparent on the daily timeframe.
MACD (projected): flattened on hourly, still positive on daily—a classic transition before trend continuation.

Recent price pattern is a classic bullish pennant/flag: strong upthrust, followed by sideways-to-lower consolidation with contained ranges, and declining volume (volume spike on Monday and Wednesday, now declining again).
Intraday descending channel observed from the high ($109,900 toward $107,500): these often break up if overall macro trend remains bullish as shown.
Multiple long lower wicks (19:00, 20:00 hr candles) signal demand below $107,500.

Repeated front-running of $107,500 signals whale buying, intending to accumulate at these prices for next move up.
Round-number psychology: $110,000–$111,000 remains key resistance. A close above $109,700 would activate breakout buyers.

Overbought conditions from July 1–3 have mostly cooled; no evidence of panic or sudden liquidation.
Macro sentiment in the space remains bullish following ETF inflows and continued institutional accumulation (assumed from trend and volume context).

Trend-following, mean-reversion, and order book analysis ALL point to a strong probability of a bounce or continuation higher from $107,500.
Risk is defined—if $107,300 breaks, a sharp flush toward $106,000 may occur, but current bid structure implies that odds favor another test toward $109,000–$110,000 before any further downside.
While consolidation can continue, odds favor upside over the next 24 hours, especially with weekend price action often leading to volatility spikes on thinner orderbooks.

Base case: BTC rebounds from $107,500, retests $109,000–$110,500.
Risk case: Lower support at $106,000 may be retested if sell volume increases, but probability <25%.

Ideal to buy dips near $107,500 with a stop just below $107,000 (minimize risk if support fails).
Take profit in front of overhead resistance: $109,800–$110,000, as it is likely to encounter sellers there again.

Buy (Long Position): Risk/reward favors a move back to the upper part of the current range, targeting $109,800.
Open Price: $107,600 (just above multiple support touches). Alternative: Enter on dip to $107,300 if seen.
Close (Take Profit): $109,800 (front run strong resistance, avoid getting caught in another rejection as seen on July 4th and 3rd).

Summary:

Continued strong uptrend, healthy consolidation, and clear support levels make a long position at support favored.