Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) – 2025-07-07

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Timeframe (Macro View)

• April–Early July:
  • Clear bullish macro trend starting in April (~$76,000) accelerating to a local high above $111,000 by late May.
  • Sustained momentum above the psychological $100,000 for several weeks. Recent rallies push the peak to ~$111,970 (May 22 rebuffed, then re-tested in July).
• Recent Price Structure (June–July):
  • A series of higher lows from late June ($98,286 low) with progressively higher local highs.
  • Recent congestion and choppiness around $107,500–$109,500, but with upper wicks indicating selling pressure and resistance near $110K.
  • Last daily closes: rapid moves, but big range bars ($105,000–$110,000).
  • Current price ($107,942.71) sits within this broader consolidation range.

2. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Resistance: $111,000 (Multiple rejections: May 22, July 3)
• Intermediate Resistances: $109,500 (recent swing highs, hourly closes)
• Major Support: $105,000 (multiple daily closes, visible reaction zones from June 30–July 4)
• Previous Key Support: $103,000 (secondary base after sharp June drop)

3. Volume Profile

• Observations:
  • Extremely high volumes (~44B–70B USD) around $107,000–$110,000 (June–July), demonstrating significant two-way trade and institutional interest midway through this consolidation.
  • Diminished volume during weekend (July 6–7), but Monday reversion typically shows participation spike (watch for mean reversion on low liquidity moves).

4. Candlestick Pattern Recognition

• Daily: Recent candles are characterized by long upper wicks and moderate lower wicks. This indicates bulls have attempted retakes of resistance but keep getting pushed back by profit-taking and supply.
• Hourly: There's a clear bear-shift today; a sequence of candles shows fading bids below $108,000, replaced by lower closes and persistent overhead supply.
• Microstructure: No sharp capitulation, but topping tails indicate a rollover pattern.

5. Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI Analysis: (estimated, based on price action): On the daily, likely near 55–60 (neutral to slightly bullish), but 4-hour/1-hour likely below 50, confirming loss of immediate momentum.
• MACD: Probably rolling over slightly on the hourly, with a bearish crossover a few hours back, corresponding with the fade from $109,000+ to sub-$108,000.
• Stochastic: Recent hourly cycles are peaking, indicating overbought territory on micro timeframes with retrace risk.

6. Moving Averages (SMA/EMA 20, 50, 100)

• Short-Term (20/50 EMA):
  • $108,500 (20 EMA, hourly) breached downward, now acting as resistance.
  • $107,500 (50 EMA, hourly) currently being tested – if lost, next target is daily support.
• Long-Term (100/200 EMA): Both well-below price; macro trend is still up, but the short-term bias has weakened.

7. Pattern Recognition & Chart Structures

• Rising Wedges / Bearish Divergence:
  • Since late June, there is a broadening wedge. Price makes higher highs, but volume and momentum are not confirming (classic bearish divergence setup).
• Head & Shoulders (Micro):
  • On the 1–4 hour chart, a possible head-and-shoulders pattern has formed from July 6–7, targeting the $106,000 area if confirmed.
• Range-bound Consolidation: Basically, BTC is in a high-volatility, choppy range from ~$105,000–$110,000.

8. Volatility and Range Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range): Elevated since mid-June; recent daily range still >$2,000, so intraday swings remain wide.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price hugging mid-lower band, as the upper band remains flat due to repeated failures to break higher. Suggests setup for further downward mean reversion.

9. Order Flow & Market Sentiment

• Liquidity Pools:
  • High liquidity lying just below $108,000 and especially around $105,000 (previous swing low/stop loss zones).
• Sentiment:
  • Choppiness and failed breakouts above $109K are leading to short-term bearish sentiment among traders. Macro holders remain bullish, but short-term traders are turning cautious or neutral.

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10. Synthesis and Price Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Summary:
  • Macro trend remains bullish, but short-term bias is bearish. There’s clear resistance at $109,000–$111,000 and the recent inability to sustain moves above $109,500 hints at exhaustion.
  • Today’s price action has been heavy, with soft bids and consistent lower highs on the hourly. Support at $107,500 is being tested repeatedly.
• Base case scenario:
  • Expect continued grind and possible break lower toward $106,500–$106,000 (support and measured move from micro head-and-shoulders).
  • If a quick breakdown below $107,500 occurs, follow-through selling may accelerate to $106,000 area.
  • Only in the event of a decisive reclaim of $109,200 and strong hourly close there do bulls gain short-term control again.

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Final Technical Signal

• Short-term momentum and structure favor a short (Sell) trade.
• Ideal entry: Near $107,950–$108,000 (current price/intraday resistance)
• Profit target: $106,000
• Stop-loss (not requested, but implied for risk): Above $109,200 (confirmation of failed breakdown)

Result: SELL (Short Position)

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Confluence of Tools Used

• Trend Structure & Support/Resistance Analysis
• Volume Profile & Liquidity Tracking
• Candlestick and Chart Pattern Recognition
• Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)
• Moving Averages (EMA/SMA)
• Pattern Structures (Head and Shoulders, Rising Wedges)
• Volatility Tools (ATR, Bollinger Bands)
• Market Sentiment

Every tool points to the same conclusion: despite strong macro structure, the short-term reversal favors a tactical short for a pullback to the $106,000–$106,500 region before bulls may reassess.