Step-by-Step Advanced Technical Analysis for BTC - 2025-07-08

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

• Long-Term (Daily):
  • Since April 2025, BTC has experienced a robust uptrend: lows in April near $78k, with steady higher highs and higher lows through May, June, and now July, peaking at above $110k.
  • Recent consolidation visible above $105k; strong rebounds after every retracement. The structure appears as a classic bullish continuation pattern after a significant rally.

---

2. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (10/20 EMA):
  • The 10-period EMA (estimate $108,500) is flattening out but not yet rolling over, suggestive of consolidation, not reversal.
• Medium-Term (50/100 SMA):
  • 50SMA (estimate $106,000) well below price; price remains above key MAs, reflecting structural bullishness.
  • No bearish cross detected; MAs are still positively aligned.

3. Price Action & Candlestick Patterns

• Recent Daily Candles:
  • The last three days' candles (including intra-day) show smaller real bodies and multiple wicks on both ends, signifying indecision/the early stages of a squeeze.
  • Hourly candles show repeated tests of $108,200-$108,500 as short-term support, with each dip being bought relatively quickly.
  • No major bearish engulfing or distribution patterns detected; local highs near $109,200 are still being tested.

4. Support & Resistance Analysis

• Key Resistance: $109,700, $110,500 (recent highs), $111,670 (multi-day high).
• Immediate Support: $108,000-$108,300 (held repeatedly on intra-day), second-tier $107,600, and daily support $105,700 (June/July pivot).
• The structure suggests strong absorption around $108k—a region institutions are likely positioned heavily.

5. Volume Profile & Order Flow

• Daily Volume: Remains robust with $43B+ transacted, a slight dip compared to peak moves but well above average—no significant drop-off in participation.
• Intraday: Higher volume spikes coincide with upward surges, indicating that rallies are not on weak hands; distribution phase is not apparent.

6. Volatility & Momentum

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Slightly compressing in the last 48 hours, suggesting a volatility squeeze, often preceding a breakout.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Estimate: RSI hovering near 60–65 (strong but not overbought territory).
  • No sign of significant divergence; momentum favors another leg up.

7. Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions

• Retracement from Recent High ($111,670) to July Local Low ($105,698):
  • Price is currently challenging the 61.8% retracement zone (~$109,000).
  • A clear breakout above $109,700 would validate the next Fibonacci extension upside.

8. Chart Patterns

• Flag/Pennant:
  • A textbook bull flag is forming post-$111,000 high, with upward diagonal consolidation.
  • Breakout triggers above $109,700, with volume confirmation, would imply a target near previous highs and measured move: $112,500–$114,000.

9. Sentiment & Market Positioning

• Price Structure: Higher lows, repeated rejections at higher resistance, quick absorption downswings—bullish bid under every dip.
• Psychology: $110k round number acts as psychological magnet. No euphoria or panic; controlled, mature price action.

10. Risk Assessment

• Downside Risk:
  • $108k support is pivotal. A clean break below could see tests of $107,600/$105,700—the tail risk scenario for next 24h is mild, as no panic selling is observed.
• Reward/Risk Ratio:
  • Potential move from $108,800 to $111,500+ gives 2.5:1 or better reward vs. recent volatility—favorable for upside trades.

11. Synthesis & 24h Prediction

• Trends remain strongly positive.
• Price is consolidating near highs, undergoing volatility compression/flagging.
• Volumes, momentum, and structural supports speak in favor of a bullish breakout in the next 24h, likely retesting or surpassing $110k, with upside targets near $111,500–$112,500.

---

Final Technical Decision

• Trade Direction: Buy (Long Position).
• Optimal Entry: $108,700–$108,750 (current price or slight retrace dip).
• Profit Target: $111,300—strategically just below the recent $111,670 high to capture likely breakout runoff before predictable resistance or profit-taking.

Stop placement (not requested, but for completeness): $107,700 (below consolidation lows and intraday swing lows) for tight risk management.

---

Summary Table

Decision	Open Price	Target Price	Timeframe
BUY/LONG	$108,700	$111,300	Next 24 hours

Bullish consolidation continues—BTC poised for the next breakout toward $111k+. Buy the squeeze, target pre-highs!