BTC Set for Explosive Continuation: Technical Patterns Signal $113,700+ Target

Step-by-Step Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis — 2025-07-09

1. Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday)

• Macro Trend (3-Month View):

  • Bitcoin has shown a robust uptrend since April 2025. Starting from ~$79,600 in early April, price has now reached over $110,700—a gain of nearly 40% in three months.
  • Trend accelerations: Significant upward momentum accelerated mid-May and again in late June, with brief consolidations followed by strong pushes higher.
  • Recent Weeks: After testing the $100–107k region in late June, BTC broke resistance and is now trading near all-time highs for the period.

• Short-Term (Past 7 Days):

  • Price held above $108,000 for most of the week. Two strong rallies attempted to push through resistance at $110,000.
  • Intraday price action (last 24h) saw a sharp rally from $109,563 → $111,907 (19:00h), followed by a modest retrace to $110,732 (current). The rally was accompanied by a volume spike, suggesting strong buying interest.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume exploded during upward price movements (e.g., past three rallies and the most recent breakout hour).
• This confirms moves are supported by genuine market participation, not just thin liquidity spikes.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Support: $108,000–$108,400 (multiple daily and hourly bounce zones).
• Secondary Support: $107,000 (previous resistance zone, now converted).
• Major Resistance: $111,900–$112,000 (intraday high formed today—could act as near-term ceiling).
• Fib Retracement (From 07/02 Swing Low $105,157 → Swing High $111,907):
  • 38.2% Retrace: ~$109,600 (recent bounce zone after the breakout)
  • 50%: ~$108,500 (matches multiple hourly lows)

4. Candlestick, Chart Patterns, and Price Action

• No Clear Reversal Candles: Recent candles lack long upper wicks and sell-off. The brief retracement to $110,700 after hitting $111,900 was shallow and on lower volume compared to the breakout candle.
• Bull Flag Formation (Intraday): Small consolidation between $108,700–$109,500 resolved upward, confirming bullish intent. Post-breakout consolidation above the previous resistance is a sign of strength.
• Momentum "Runaway" Pattern: When price breaks a key level ($110,000), surges, then holds above the new floor, it indicates buyers absorbing supply.

5. Oscillators and Indicators

• RSI (14h, estimate from action):
  • During rallies, likely RSI > 70 (overbought), but the small retracements reset this, enabling further upside without exhaustion.
• MACD (Estimate):
  • Histogram likely positive and trending higher. Signal line crossover happened during the $108k to $111k move.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Currently price is riding or slightly above the upper band—classic signal for continued uptrend, with risk of volatility spikes.

6. Moving Averages

• 21-hour & 50-hour EMA:
  • Both sloping upward, with price consistently closing above these short-term moving averages.
• 200-hour EMA:
  • Lags below at ~ $108k zone, a solid support if market sharply retraces.

7. Order Book and Market Structure

• Clear evidence of aggressive buyers soaking up supply on dips ~ $108,700–$109,500.
• "Ladders" of limit orders appear to be stacked ($111k–$112k), but these may be swept if momentum continues.

8. Volatility Measurement

• Last 24h, range expanded rapidly from $108,600 → $111,900 (3%), followed by tight consolidation. This volatility clustering typically precedes continuation.

9. Sentiment and Momentum

• The inability for sellers to push below $110,500 after the breakout, plus previous failed breakdown attempts, suggests ongoing bullish sentiment and momentum.
• Funding rates and perpetuals (not shown) likely slightly long-biased, but not extreme to warn of a top.

10. Advanced Pattern Recognition & Elliott Wave

• The pattern appears to match an Elliott Wave 3 or 5, typically strongest portions of the move. Corrections have been shallow, further supporting this.
• Impulse wave likely still in progress given the lack of strong reversal candles or volume blow-off.

11. Price Projection (Next 24h)

• Expect a test or breakout of $112,000 ($111,900 previous high), with potential extension toward $113,500–$114,000 if high momentum persists.
• Downside risk limited to $109,200–$109,500. Strong support at $108,400 for deeper pullbacks.

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Conclusion and Decision

Given near-term breakout, strong supply absorption above $110,000, and technical evidence of a continued uptrend with shallow retracements, probabilities favor further upside for at least the next 24 hours. Risk is managed with stops just below $109,500 (recent structure), with targets at and above new all-time highs.

Trade Plan

• Position: Buy (Long)
• Optimal Entry: On minor retracement to prior breakout zone near $110,500–$110,600, for best risk/reward.
• Target: Take profit in the $113,700–$114,000 region, just above projected breakout extensions.
• Stops: Consider stops on a daily close below $109,200 (~1.5% downside), invalidating the breakout structure.

Summary:

• Buy pullback to $110,600, target $113,700 within 24h, stop under $109,200. Remain flexible on exits in case of parabolic acceleration.