Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of July 16, 2025

1. Trend and Chart Structure Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Trend

• Daily Chart: The BTC price has demonstrated a robust uptrend since mid-April, with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, escalating from ~$85,000 to the current $119,626.35. The acceleration phase commenced notably in early July, especially after breaking through the psychological barrier of $110,000.
• Hourly Chart (last 24H): The past day has featured a steady upwards channel, with periodic pullbacks finding support above $118,000, and highs gravitating towards $119,900. Price action remains above short-term moving averages, showing orderly trend continuation.

Patterns

• Following the break above $117,000 in early July, there was a bullish breakout with significant volume, driving rapid gains.
• The recent structure resembles a bullish flag or minor consolidation after a strong impulse leg (post ~$116K breakout), suggesting potential for trend resumption.

2. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA (~106,000, extrapolated): Well below the current price, confirming a strong bullish bias.
• 20-Day SMA (~115,000): Price consistently finds support near the 20 MA on dips, signaling ongoing trend validity.
• Hourly 20/50 MA: Price remains above both, reinforcing immediate-term bullishness. No death crosses or exhaustion signals are present.

3. Volume Analysis

• Daily Volume: Recent sessions display a marked uptick, especially on breakout days (e.g., July 10 and July 14: volumes >$90B and ~$180B), confirming institutional participation and FOMO.
• Short-term Volume: Dips attract buyers (see repeated recoveries from the $118,500–$119,000 range on the hourly), suggesting market participants are accumulating positions rather than distributing.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Daily RSI: Estimated to be in the mid-70s given the extended run — indicative of overbought, but strong trends can maintain elevated RSI for extended periods.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillating between 65–75 on recent pushes, again suggesting bullish—but not yet exhausted—momentum.

5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD: Signal lines have diverged bullishly since June and remain elevated. No clear signs of bearish cross seen yet; histogram likely positive and growing.
• Hourly MACD: Remains above zero, with minor oscillations but no negative crossovers.

6. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $119,000–$119,200 (inter-day pivot, buyers step in repeatedly), $118,500 (flag base), and the emotionally significant $117,000 (former breakout level).
• Immediate Resistance: $119,950–$120,000 (psychological + local highs). Above that, next major resistance will be at prior daily highs and then potential round-number clusters: $121,000, $123,000.

7. Volume Profile & Order Flow

• Heavy-traded volume nodes at $117,000 and $119,000 — indicating strong bullish conviction and a build-up of positions for a further push. Absence of chunky resistance above $120,000 suggests air-space for price discovery.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: BTC rides the upper band, suggesting trending behavior. While this can coincide with overbought scenarios, in explosive phases this often precedes further upside. Bands are widening, indicating increased volatility and breakout potential.
• Hourly: Price hugs the band with brief mean-reversion, supporting the case for trend continuation rather than reversal.

9. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension

• Pullback from July 14’s high ($123,091.60) to July 15’s low ($115,765.69) shows price has reclaimed over 78.6% of the retracement, a bullish signal.
• Fibonacci Extension: Projects measured move target near $123,500–$124,200 short-term, assuming the prior impulse span is repeated.

10. Sentiment & Market Context

• Recent price action: Every minor dip is aggressively bought; no signs of climax top or capitulation.
• News/ETF/halving anniversaries could be in the mix, but price action alone is enough for a strong sentiment read.

11. Risk Management/Exhaustion/Market Risks

• While daily RSI is slightly overheated, historical BTC runs can sustain this for days or weeks.
• Ideal entries favor breakout/pullback strategy: Chasing now into resistance is riskier, but buying moderate intraday dips remains favorable.

12. Final Synthesis & Next 24h Outlook

• Trend, momentum, and volume all favor further upside. There is no strong evidence of distribution or a topping pattern. Immediate resistance may cause some churn at $120,000, but the strong trend and shallow pullbacks signal opportunity for further price discovery above all-time highs.
• Potential for a minor retrace to $119,300–$119,500 before cleanly breaking through $120,000. If momentum continues, price can reach $122,000–$123,000 in the next 24h. Downside appears capped near $118,800–$119,000 by persistent buying interest.

13. Investment Decision

Given the technical picture, the preferred strategy is a Buy (Long Position) on Bitcoin on minor pullbacks.

14. Entry and Exit Recommendations

• Optimal Buy Entry (Open Price): $119,300 (prefer a modest dip pullback towards short-term support levels, improving reward/risk and avoiding immediate breakout FOMO).
• Target Take Profit (Close Price): $122,700 (between projected Fibonacci extension target and just ahead of the round number resistance cluster; allows for measured, non-greedy profit realization before possible volatility around $123k).

---

Summary:

• Trend: Strong bullish, all indicators aligned for further upside.
• No top or reversal signals apparent yet; dips are being bought with conviction. Minor short-term volatility anticipated, but the primary risk is missing upside, not downside exposure. Buy on modest pullback for next leg up.