Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of July 18, 2025

1. Price Action & Trend Structure

• Long-Term Trend: The daily chart shows a relentless and parabolic uptrend since April, rising from ~$85,000 to a peak near $123,000. Despite several pullbacks, every correction has been aggressively bought, establishing higher highs and higher lows—key ingredients of a healthy bullish trend.
• Recent Action: The last five sessions highlight increased volatility: on July 14 BTC spiked to 123,091 before falling back, subsequently consolidating in a tightening range. Last-hour candles exhibit a notable uptick in selling volume and a clear break beneath $118,000.
• Intraday Structure: The past 24-36 hours show lower highs, and the price has struggled to retake the $120,000 psychological level. The market has transitioned from impulsive upward moves to a more corrective, rangebound environment between $117,000 and $120,000.

2. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Major Support:
  • $116,900–$117,500: Local swing lows and previous congestion.
  • $115,000: Key round number and prior resistance-turned-support zone.
  • $111,300–$111,900: July 9-10 breakout area.
• Major Resistance:
  • $119,300–$120,000: Intraday supply area, clear resistance across all timeframes.
  • $123,000: All-time high, whipsaw top from July 14.
• Current Price Context: BTC last traded at $117,538.25, having failed repeated attempts to retake $119,300 and suffering from a cascade of lower highs and lower lows. The price is at the lower end of the current intraday range, hinting at possible breakdown continuation.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: The largest hourly volumes on July 18 occurred during downswings—especially the 18:00, 19:00, and 20:00 UTC candles—with volume exceeding 90,000 BTC contracts per hour. This is indicative of distribution at these levels, further confirming seller dominance in the short term.

4. Momentum Indicators (Daily & Hourly)

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • On the daily timeframe, RSI topped out near 80 on July 14 and has since slipped to ~60, still positive but showing definite bearish divergence (lower RSI peaks despite price making new highs).
  • 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are hovering just above 40, supporting near-term selling pressure but not signaling oversold yet.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
  • The MACD on both the 4H and 1H charts shows a negative crossover and a widening histogram to the downside. Momentum favors sellers for at least the next few sessions.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-term (21 EMA, 50 SMA):
  • Price is currently below the 21-period EMA and testing the 50-period SMA on the hourly and 4H charts, signaling a short-term shift toward bearishness.
• Long-term (200 SMA):
  • Still far below the current price, indicative of long-term bullish favor, but shorter-term MAs are flattening/rolling over.

6. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Triple Top Formation: The $120,000–$121,000 zone has acted as a clear resistance ceiling, tested three times but never convincingly broken. This pattern often presages a corrective move if not followed by immediate bullish continuation.
• Bearish Engulfing (Hourly): The 20:00 UTC candle on July 18 shows a large, bearish engulfing bar with one of the day's highest volumes.
• Micro Descending Triangle: Within the intraday chart (since July 17th), price is compressing into a descending triangle along the $117,500 support shelf—a classic precursor to breakdown if support fails.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• From July swing low $104,601 (June 17th) to July high $123,091 (July 14th):
  • 23.6% retrace: $118,722 (already breached)
  • 38.2% retrace: $116,776 (potential near-term support)
  • 50% retrace: $113,846 (stronger support)
  • 61.8% retrace: $110,916 (confluence with previous breakout)
• BTC has just broken beneath the 23.6% retracement, likely targeting the 38.2% at $116,776 if downward momentum continues.

8. Order Flow and Market Sentiment

• Market Structure: Derivatives open interest increased during the recent sell-off—a sign that new shorts are opening, adding pressure.
• Sentiment: Social and funding rate data imply increasing fear and short-term bearishness among retail, but no evidence of capitulation or panic-selling, meaning further downside may be in store before a contrarian bounce.

9. Volatility Analysis (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range): Spiking over the last week, reflecting large daily ranges—expect moves of $2,500-$3,500 per day.
• Bollinger Bands: Price now hugging the lower band on the hourly chart, with the bands expanding, indicating the onset of a new volatile leg—likely to the downside given pattern and momentum.

10. Elliott Wave Count

• Evidence suggests recent push to $123,000 was a fifth wave top; BTC now in a corrective A-B-C wave, currently in a sharp 'A' leg down. The measured target of this move aligns near the $113,800-$116,800 region.

11. Corroborating Factors

• Persistent rejection at $120,000, failed retests, lower highs, and an increase in bearish volume all suggest a short-term reversal rather than continuation higher.
• There is a notable absence of V-shaped recoveries so frequently seen in prior corrections, pointing to grindy, attritional downside action rather than sharp, buy-the-dip rallies.

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Strategic Recommendation and Prediction

• Expected Path: Over the next 24 hours, Bitcoin is likely to break decisively below the $117,500 support, aiming for the next confluence support at $116,800–$116,900. If momentum persists, an extension to $115,000–$115,800 is probable before dip-buying interest returns.
• Trade Outlook: A short (Sell) position is favored for active traders. Short-term, trying to catch a falling knife is ill-advised; risk is to the downside.

Conclusion: Sell (Short Position)

Order Recommendations

• Optimal Open Price: Enter at the next minor recovery at $117,700 (potential minor pullback before breakdown) OR at current price $117,538.25 for immediate momentum trades.
• Target Close Price: Place take-profit near $115,850 (above round $115,000 and before heavier support/probable bounce).

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Summary: The technical outlook overwhelmingly favors a short-term bearish scenario for BTC, with momentum, structure, and order flow pointing to further downside. Look to open short positions near $117,700 (optimal for risk/reward) and cover near $115,850.