Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) - July 24, 2025

1. Price Trend & Structure

Macro Trend (3 Months):

• Price trend: Uptrend from mid-June to present, breaking to new all-time highs in July.
• Current all-time high: $123,091 (July 14).
• Current pullback: Trading around $118,800 after failing to push above $120,000 multiple times over the last week.
• Price has consistently closed above $105,000 since June 23, showing strong higher lows and higher highs formation.

Micro Trend (Last 24 Hours):

• Range-bound between $117,400 (support) and $119,500 (resistance).
• Last 10 hours: Several attempts to break $119,200–$119,500 met with selling pressure; however, dips below $118,200 have been aggressively bought.
• Hourly structure shows several wicks below $118,000 being bought.
• Short-term consolidation after rapid run from $110K → $119K over ~10 days suggests pause before next directional move.

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2. Volume Analysis

• Significant volume spike on July 14 ($181B; new ATH day), indicating climax buying.
• High sustained volume since, with July 23 at $66B and July 24 so far ~ $74B (likely increased by end of day), indicating continued strong interest.
• Intraday: Higher volumes during US trading hours (15:00–20:00 UTC), fueling brief rallies, especially attempts over $119,400.
• Volume declining slightly off highs, but remains above June averages, supportive of continuation.

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3. Moving Averages

Simple Moving Averages (Estimated)

• 50-day SMA: ~ $112,000 (rapidly trending up)
• 20-day SMA: ~ $117,000 (tracking recent price surge)
• Price is above both 20 and 50 SMA. Typically bullish.
• 200-day SMA: Far below, ~ $100,000 (not challenged since May). Long-term trend intact.
• The short-term moving average upward cross in late June confirmed the bull trend re-acceleration.

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4. Momentum Oscillators

RSI

• Daily RSI (estimated): At 68–72 since July 10 (approaching overbought but not extreme).
• 4-hour & 1-hour RSI: Oscillating between 62–68 (bullish but not yet exhausted).
• No confirmed bearish divergence—RSI highs tracking price highs, supportive of sustained momentum.

MACD

• MACD line above signal line since June 23; histogram remains positive though visually losing some slope since July 18. Mild slowing but no clear reversal.

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5. Price Action & Candlestick Patterns

• Multiple daily candles with long lower wicks below $118,000 since July 21 suggest strong dip-buying.
• Upper wicks above $119,400–$119,700 (July 22, 23, 24) indicating supply zone, but not followed by aggressive selloffs—rather shallow retracements.
• No topping candle patterns (no shooting stars, bearish engulfing, or doji at resistance).

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6. Support & Resistance

• Immediate resistance: $119,500–$120,000 (multiple recent hourly peaks)
• Major resistance: $123,000–$123,100 (ATH from July 14)
• Short-term support: $117,400 (hourly lows July 24), then $116,200 (intraday support, July 22).
• Major support: $115,000 (prior breakout zone; July 11–12 consolidation).

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7. Volatility & Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands (estimated, 20 period):
  • Upper Band: ~$120,200
  • Middle Band (SMA): ~$118,000
  • Lower Band: ~$115,800
• Price hugging upper band since July 20.
• Bands are expanding: suggests continuation of high volatility and likelihood of trend expansion, rather than mean reversion.

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8. Fibonacci Extensions & Retracements

• Measure swing low (June 22, $98,000) to July 14 ATH ($123,000):
  • 23.6% Retracement: $116,938
  • 38.2% Retracement: $113,697
• Recent pullbacks have held above 23.6% retracement—strong bullish sign.
• Fib extension targets from micro-swing ($115,245→$123,091):
  • 1.618 extension: ~$128,600
  • Aggressive bulls may target this on breakout.

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9. Order Book & Market Sentiment (Contextual)

• Sentiment on social/trading forums remains bullish; most traders are looking for $120,000 breakout.
• Funding rates (market context, not directly in data) reportedly mildly positive—not yet extreme, so no imminent overcrowding risk.

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10. Comparative Market Analysis

• Many altcoins also rallying, indicating broad crypto risk-on sentiment.
• Absence of major negative macro or regulatory headlines.

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11. Final Synthesis & Probability-Based Outlook

• Aggregate signals: Prices are consolidating just below a key psychological/computational resistance ($120K) after a parabolic run.
• Volume, support structure, and absence of reversal signals favor a bullish resolution.
• Momentum is intact, though the market may probe support ($117.4K) again before breaking higher.
• The prudent long entry is on a modest dip, maximizing reward/risk.
• Probability for $120,000+ breakout in next 24 hours: 65–75%.

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Conclusion:

Given the powerful and persistent uptrend, robust dip-buying at $118K, and lack of reversal signals, a Buy (Long Position) is favored with a slight pullback entry to minimize risk. Use $118,500 as optimal limit buy entry (prior support, mid-range), with target profit at $121,800 (approaching next psychological and Fibonacci extension resistance). Set a tight stop-loss below $117,200 for disciplined risk management.

Final Recommendation:

• Buy (Long Position) on dip to $118,500
• Take profit $121,800
• Stop loss $117,200

If breakout above $120,000 occurs earlier, consider pyramiding into strength with trailing stop.

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