Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – July 25, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term (Daily Time Frame)

• Uptrend (April–July): The daily chart data confirms a robust and persistent uptrend, with BTC moving from $93,754 (late April) to highs above $123,000 (mid-July), followed by consolidation and partial retracement.
• Recent Weakness: After peaking at $123,091 (July 14), BTC corrected to the $117,000–$120,000 range. The pullback has been contained above $115,000, showing resilience at this key psychological and technical level.

Short-Term (Hourly Time Frame)

• Volatility and Intraday Patterns: Today's intraday session saw a large dip to $114,798 (around 07:00), but buyers stepped in, pushing BTC back above $117,000. The most recent hours show a squeeze in volatility with price oscillations between $116,000-$117,300, followed by a modest recovery.
• Pattern: The formation could be interpreted as a classic flash crash recovery or a short-term bottoming pattern (potential double bottom around $115,000 area).

2. Volume Analysis

• Heavy Volume on Moves: Significant upticks in trading volume accompany both sharp advances and corrections. The latest major volume spike (July 14/15: over $181B and $98B respectively) coincided with the local peak and subsequent reversal — marking possible distribution.
• Intraday: Today's volatility spike (over $105B) during the quick dump and recovery is a bullish signal, indicating strong demand absorption and a bullish reversal attempt.

3. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA (~$112,000 Est.): Remains decisively upward sloping, with price staying above for extended periods.
• 20-Day SMA (~$117,000-$118,000 Est.): Price has recently dipped to test/practically match the 20-day moving average before rebounding – classical bullish re-test behavior in an ongoing uptrend.
• 200-Day SMA (Below $100,000): Firmly below price action, solidifying the macro uptrend.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Daily, Estimated): After peaking (likely above the 70-75 overbought mark mid-July), RSI has cooled off, probably back to the neutral-strong zone (55-60 range), indicating consolidation rather than reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Earlier dipped significantly (following the $114,798 move), but rapidly reversed upwards, suggesting buyers aggressively entered at support.

5. Chart Patterns and Price Action

• Double Bottom (Intraday): Two sharp lows at $114,798 and $114,983 (07:00 & 14:00) with subsequent higher closes point towards a double bottom, a bullish reversal pattern.
• Symmetrical Triangle / Coiling: Following the dump and spike, price has coiled between $116,000–$117,500, setting the stage for a breakout.
• False Breakdown: The break below $115,000 was quickly bought up and reversed, trapping late sellers and potentially fueling a short squeeze.

6. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support:
  • Strong: $115,000 (intraday pivot and psychological support, site of major buy absorption)
  • Next: $114,800
• Immediate Resistance:
  • Minor: $117,500 (today's recovery high and hourly resistance)
  • Major: $118,800–$120,000 (recent swing highs)
• Breakout Potential:
  • If $117,500 is cleared intraday, BTC is likely to target $118,400–$119,600 over the next 24h.

7. Fibonacci Retracements (from mid-July high to latest low)

• High: $123,091 – Low: $114,798
  • 38.2%: ~$117,842
  • 50%: ~$118,944
  • 61.8%: ~$120,047
• Current price ($117,091) is around the 38.2% area, implying a springboard for further retracement recovery.

8. Order Book / Liquidity Considerations

• Sharp absorption below $115,000 and quick reversion provide evidence of institutional buyer support at these levels.
• Liquidity voids above $117,500 (gap from flash crash) increase the likelihood of a "vacuum" rally to $118-119k if resistance is cleared.

9. Statistical Mean Reversion & Volatility

• ATR (Average True Range), Est.: Remains high after the flash move, indicating ripe conditions for a breakout.
• Bollinger Bands: Bands likely squeezed post-recovery, suggesting an imminent volatility expansion upwards.

10. Elliott Wave Theory

• Primary impulsive move up from April to July, recent drop appears corrective (Wave 4), with move above $117,500-$118,000 confirming start of new impulsive Wave 5 to new highs.

11. Sentiment/Behavioral Analysis

• Crowd likely whipsawed by the flash correction. Panic sellers absorbed by strong hands, usually precursors to sharp rallies. Social sentiment (not shown) would likely be at fear-greed equilibrium or flipping bullish post-danger averted.

12. Confluence/Conclusion for 24H ahead

• All major methodologies (trend, momentum, support/resistance, patterns, volume, mean-reversion) point toward the flash crash as a springboard rather than the start of a downtrend.
• Probability favors upward price movement, with retests of $118,500–$119,500, possibly higher, if $117,500 is convincingly breached.
• **Downside risk looks limited to sub-$115,000, with strong absorption likely.

13. Trade Management & Entry Points

• Buy (Long position) at $117,150 or better (slightly above current price to confirm strength and momentum), with stop-loss just below $115,000 (to manage risk from a secondary flush).
• Profit target: $118,950 (near 50% Fib retracement and just below key resistance), potentially trailing up if momentum is strong.

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Summary Table:

Technique	Signal	Impact
Trend (Multi-TF)	Bullish	Uptrend resuming post-correction
Volume	Bullish	Buyers absorbed sell-off
RSI	Neutral/Bullish	Room to run, not overbought
Chart patterns	Bullish	Double bottom, false breakdown
Support/Resistance	Bullish	Holding $115k, aiming $119k
Fib Retracement	Bullish	Reclaiming key retracement levels
ATR/Volatility	Bullish	Awaiting breakout
Elliott Wave	Bullish	End of correction, start of new impulse

Final Call:

• BUY BTC near $117,150
• Profit target: $118,950
• Stop-loss: $114,800 (not required here, but part of risk plan)

Justification:

• Strong recovery, supportive volume, supportive technicals and multi-method confluence for a bullish 24h swing. Downside risk is moderate and clearly defined; upside potential outweighs risk.

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Trade carefully. Use stops. Monitor for reversal signals above $119,500.