Bitcoin Poised for Breakout: Analysis Points to Fresh Upside Toward $120,500 Zone

Step 1: Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Timeframe)

Examining the daily chart from late April 2025 to now, BTC has demonstrated a strong, persistent uptrend. From lows near $94,000 in late April, price action has continued upward, culminating in a new all-time high around $123,000 on July 14th. Following this, a noticeable retracement and consolidation have occurred. However, the structure of higher highs and higher lows remains mostly intact, confirming the prevailing bullish bias. The last two weeks show a new range—lower highs near $120,000-121,000 and steady support near $117,000.

Step 2: Medium-Term (Weekly/4H) Consolidation & Volatility

Looking closely at the period from July 10th onwards:

• Price spiked to an ATH of $123,091 on July 14th with unusually high volume ($181B), likely marking strong distribution.
• Post ATH, the price retraced sharply, finding support in the $117,000-118,000 zone multiple times (July 16th to July 26th), producing a tightening trading range.
• For the last week, candles show small bodies with wicks both up and down—classic indicators of volatility compression and an impending breakout.
• Volume over recent sessions has remained moderate to high, showing persistent market interest without full capitulation.

Step 3: Short-Term Intraday Pattern & Order Flow (Hourly)

• The past 24 hours reveal repeated tests of $117,800-$118,300 with intraday swings but no decisive move outside this narrow range.
• Each dip below $117,800 finds rapid buying interest, evidenced by swift recoveries.
• No significant breakdown below $117,000, despite multiple attempts, confirming a strong support base.
• The $118,200-$118,300 area repeatedly acts as resistance; an hourly close above $118,300 may indicate breakout momentum.

Step 4: Moving Averages (MA)

• The daily 20-period EMA (approximate, visually) now sits right below price—bullish support.
• The hourly 50- and 200-period MAs are tightly clustered near $117,900-$118,000, signaling an area of confluence and critical support.
• Price consistently tests and bounces off these averages, confirming their relevance as dynamic support.

Step 5: RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI (estimated) is in the 50-55 range. This is a healthy reset from overbought levels above 70 at the recent high. It suggests no major bearish divergence and plenty of room for a renewed upward move.
• On the hourly chart, RSI oscillated between 48-57 throughout the past 24 hours, signaling balanced sentiment with a slight bullish tilt.

Step 6: MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• The MACD daily histogram has begun to flatten after a post-ATH retracement—bullish momentum is pausing but not reversed.
• Hourly MACD lines are converging, with a very recent weak bullish crossover, creating the potential for upside acceleration if price breaks resistance.

Step 7: Volume Analysis

• Highest volume areas on the recent top were associated with selling, yet subsequent pullbacks were met with above-average absorption and no follow-through.
• Last few days see declining volume, indicating the market is gearing up for an expansion move (volatility expansion imminent).

Step 8: Market Structure & Chart Patterns

• Formation: Ascending triangle on intraday frames (multiple higher lows converging under horizontal resistance of $118,300). Such patterns statistically favor upward breakouts in well-established uptrends.
• Long upper wicks in past hours were not followed by cascading sell volume — suggesting sellers lack conviction for a breakdown.

Step 9: Fibonacci Retracement

• The post-ATH retracement went as deep as the 38.2%-50% retracement zone ($117,000-$118,000), repeatedly finding demand. This aligns with classic re-accumulation after strong uptrends.

Step 10: Order Book/Flow (Hypothetical as no direct access)

• Given repeated support holds and low wick rejections, there are likely resting bids building just below the $118,000 mark.
• Absence of panic-selling below $118,000—likely whales/large players defending positions.

Step 11: Sentiment & Context

• Sentiment remains constructive: pullbacks are shallow, and each new high is not immediately sharply rejected. While some markets saw profit taking, there’s no sign of broad reversal or top distribution.
• Market has shown resilience to downside probes and is consolidating at historically high levels.

Step 12: Synthesis & Forecast

• The current compression and higher-lows pattern into a hard resistance suggest the market is coiling for another leg up. All technical signals: trend, structure, oscillators, and volume, lean bullish, with only minor warnings of possible shakeouts if support ($117,000) fails. However, with so many failed breakdowns, the probability of an upside breakout is elevated.
• Expect a decisive move in the coming 24 hours. With respect to the risk/reward profile, a long (Buy) position near the bottom of the range ($118,000) offers the best potential.

Trade Plan & Risk Management

• Entry: Open a long position on a minor dip to $118,000 (current price), or on a confirmed hourly candle close above $118,300 for confirmation.
• Target: Initial target is previous local highs near $120,500 (just below psychological and chart resistance). If momentum is strong, extension to $121,000 possible.
• Stop (not asked, but for completeness): Place a stop below recent support at $117,000 if managing risk tightly.

Conclusion: All major technicals point to a bullish bias in the short term. Expect BTC to break upwards out of its current consolidation and push toward $120,500 in the next 24 hours. A Buy is advised at or near current price levels for optimal risk/reward.