Step-by-Step Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Technical Outlook, July 28, 2025

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis

• Macro Uptrend: BTC has been in a significant uptrend from May to July. The price in early May was in the $94,000–$97,000 range, and now price has crossed $118,000. There were periods of strong bullish enthusiasm toward $120,000 and even spikes toward $123,000.
• Medium-Term Correction and Recovery: After peaking at $123,091 (July 14), BTC retraced to the $115,000–$118,000 zone and has since stabilized and consolidated, forming a higher base between $117,000 and $120,000. This consolidation represents digestion of the earlier gains, typically bullish if support holds.

2. Chart Patterns – Price Structure

• Ascending Triangle/Flat Top: The range-bound consolidation between $117,000 (support) and $120,000 (resistance) forms the upper edge of an ascending formation. Price has attempted to break the $120k level multiple times since July 10 but has been met with supply.
• Support Bounces: Multiple intraday wicks show repeated rejection below $117,500, illustrating strong buy-side defense here.
• Fibonacci Retracement (May Low to July High): The move from the May low ($94,000) to July high ($123,000) gives key retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$116,000
  • 38.2%: ~$111,200
  • 50%: ~$108,500 Price is holding above the 23.6% retracement – an initial bullish sign.

3. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20-EMA): Estimated around $118,500–$119,000 (from recent closes). Price currently floats slightly below this dynamic average.
• Medium-Term (50-EMA): Likely between $117,000–$117,500, in line with recent support zones.
  • Interpretation: The 20-EMA is flattening but not declining, while the 50-EMA is still rising. This supports a short-term consolidation within a longer-term uptrend.

4. Volume Profile

• Volume Surge at Peaks: Massive volume on July 14 ($181B) during the spike to $123,000, indicating heavy activity (likely profit-taking and bullish euphoria).
• Recent Decline in Volume: Volume through the second half of July has trended down, except for July 25 ($104.8B, on a failed breakdown below $115,000), indicating potential seller exhaustion.
  • Volume analysis suggests both buy- and sell-side activity has cooled, typical pre-breakout behavior.

5. Short-Term Price Action (Hourly Data)

• Micro Downtrend in Last 24 Hours: The recent hourly closes show a minor cascade from $119,700 down to the $118,000–$117,500 area.
• Rebound Attempts: Every drop below $117,600 is quickly bought up with subsequent hourly closes above $118,000, confirming support.
• Absence of Panic Selling: No capitulatory drops, suggesting patient accumulation.

6. Oscillator Analysis (Extrapolated)

• RSI (Estimated): With a sustained rally, some cooling, and recent consolidation, RSI is likely in neutral to slightly overbought territory (55–60)—not extremely overheated.
• MACD (Estimated): MACD lines likely narrowing after earlier bullish divergence, which suggests short-term indecision but no clear bearish reversal.

7. Key Orderbook/Psychological Levels

• Major Resistance: $120,000 (round number, previous rejection point)
• Major Support: $117,000–$117,500 (multiple hourly and daily rejections)
• Breakout Targets: Sustained move above $120,000 could trigger momentum toward new all-time highs ($123,000+)
• Breakdown Risk: Losing $117,000 could lead to quick slides toward $115,600, then $111,600 (Fibonacci levels, former resistance)

8. Volatility and Risk Metrics

• ATR (est.): Daily price range averages about $1,000–$2,000.
• Recent Intraday Swings: Most hourly candles vary by $200–$400, showing contracting volatility consistent with a breakout setup.

9. Sentiment, Context, and Liquidity Considerations

• Context: After a short-term pullback from $123,000, BTC stabilized on high volume and is now ranging at the higher end of its recent band—a classic structure before either continuation higher or a downside reversal.
• Risk/Reward: The risk of deeper correction exists if $117,000 is lost, but overall structural support and institutional buying activity (as inferred from high-volume rejections at support) favor the bull case.

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Synthesis & Prediction: Next 24 Hours

• Primary Bias: Bitcoin is in a high-probability consolidation zone following a markup phase. Price is forming a tight consolidation on strong support, typical of setups preceding upward continuation, especially given lack of sell-side follow-through.
• Predicted Move: Expect a challenge of $119,400 (immediate resistance), with a strong likelihood for an upside breakout attempt toward $120,000. If $120,000 is breached with good volume, rapid acceleration toward prior highs ($122,500–$123,000) is possible.
• Contingency: If the $117,000–$117,500 level is lost, a correction toward $115,600 may follow, but as of writing, buyers remain active here.
• Strategy Summary: Favor a Buy (Long) position near current price with a tight stop under key support.

Trading Plan

• Buy Zone (Optimal Entry): $118,000–$117,700 (current market to support zone)
• Take Profit/Target: $120,000 as an initial resistance, with high potential toward $122,800 if breakout occurs.

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Conclusion: Technical and volume structure favors a breakout probability over breakdown. With risk tightly defined at $117,000, a long entry offers favorable R/R. Expect price to test and potentially break $120,000 within the next 24 hours.

Trade: BUY BTC at $118,000, target $120,000 (TP1), $122,800 (stretch target). Risk management dictates a stop below $117,000.