Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Breaking Down or Breaking Out? Bearish Pressure Threatens $117K Support

Comprehensive Multi-Layered Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – 2025-07-29

I. Overview & Price Context

• Current Price: $117,329.81 (as of 2025-07-29, 21:00 UTC)
• BTC is trading just above a recent low created during an intraday pullback, following a hyper-volatile, upward-trending Q2 and Q3 2025.

II. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (3 months): Strong uptrend. From early May (~$94k) to the most recent peak mid-July ($123k+), price has advanced ~30%.
• Medium-Term (1 month): After an explosive breakout above $110k in early July, BTC reached $123k but failed to sustain, entering a choppy corrective phase.
• Recent Microtrend: Choppy, with weak bounces and a gentle stair-stepping down from $119.9k to current price, repeatedly testing the $117k–$118k range.

III. Support & Resistance (S&R)

• Nearest Support Levels: $117,000 (intraday horizontal), $116,500 (micro swing), $114,700 (major daily low, July 25).
• Nearest Resistance Levels: $118,000–$118,200 (minor), $119,100–$119,400 (strong, from prior local tops), $120,200, $122,500 (multi-day resistance clusters).

IV. Volume Profile and Price Action

• High Volume Nodes (HVN): Sustained high transaction & trading activity between $117.5k–$119.5k. The recent sell-off from $119k to $117.3k was met by notable volume, suggesting heavy interest at this price.
• Histograms/Order Flow: Increasing sell volume into minor bounces; absorption near $117.5k–$118k suggests some buyer defense, but rallies have limited follow-through.

V. Candlestick Structure (Intraday/Hourly)

• 12hr Structure: Repeated lower highs since July 24, forming a mild descending triangle. Failed bullish engulfing attempts on July 28/early July 29.
• Last 6 Hours: Small-bodied candles with lower wicks indicate attempted dips get bid, but each bounce is weaker. Sellers dominate volume, narrowing the price into a low-volatility coil.

VI. Moving Averages (MA) and Oscillator Analysis

• Short-Term (20/50 EMA, approximated):
  • 20-EMA (Hourly): Rolling over, closing below price = bearish tilt.
  • 50-EMA (Hourly): Just above current price, acting as dynamic resistance.
• Medium-Term (100-EMA, Daily): Still trending up, but price now below the 20-EMA (daily) for the first time since mid-June.
• 200-EMA (Daily): Well below, confirming primary uptrend remains intact.
• MACD: Histogram rolling negative since July 26; bearish momentum divergence.
• RSI:
  • Hourly RSI: 38–44 range (oversold but stabilizing; bearish bias persists).
  • Daily RSI: Dropping from 73 to 56 in two weeks, still not oversold.

VII. Chart Patterns and Formation Analysis

• Descending Triangle / Bear Flag (Intraday): Lower highs, flat support at $117k—a classic distribution pattern. Bearish bias if $117k fails decisively.
• Failed Bullish Breakout: Attempts to reclaim $119k have failed on large volume, indicating distribution by larger participants.
• Volatility Squeeze: Bollinger Bands and ATR are narrowing, preparing for a volatile move; prevailing momentum suggests this is likely downward.

VIII. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension

• Drawn from recent July swing low ($114.7k) to swing high ($123k):
  • 38.2% retrace: $120,037
  • 50% retrace: $118,850 [recent resistance tested]
  • 61.8% retrace: $117,695 [current price hovering here – critical zone]
  • Losing the 61.8% is typically a sign of deeper retracement; next target becomes full retrace toward $114.7k.

IX. Sentiment and Flow Analysis

• Volume Spike on Red Days: July 25–29 shows consistently higher volume on sell-offs than on rallies.
• Order Book: Likely heavy limit buy defense just above $117k. However, steady iceberging through the support implies accumulation is not dominant.

X. Probability-Based Projection (Next 24 Hours)

1. Base Case Scenario (70% Prob.):
   • BTC breaks $117,000 support, accelerates toward $116,000–$115,000 intraday as stops are triggered.
   • A mild oversold bounce from $115,000–$116,000 fizzles out below $118,000.
2. Reversal Scenario (20% Prob.):
   • Aggressive bid zones at $117,000 spark a rally toward $119,000 but encounter sell walls, thus failing to establish new highs.
3. Black Swan/Fake-Out Bounce (10% Prob.):
   • Sudden news or whale-driven buy absorbs all selling at $117k, and the price rockets to retest $120,000.

XI. Confluence & Synthesis of Tools

• Trend, volume, and pattern: Descending triangle on high volume bias to downside.
• Momentum: MACD negative, RSI not oversold; more room to drop.
• Support break threat: $117k is under siege; breakdown targets $115k next.
• Sentiment/Order Flow: Sellers in control, buyers defensive and unable to reverse momentum.

Conclusion: Sell (Short Position) is Optimal

• Entry: On the next failed bounce/retest of the $117,800–$118,000 zone.
• Target: $115,100
• Invalidation: If daily closes above $119,500 (would suggest failed bear breakdown and potential short squeeze).

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Investors should be aware of crypto volatility and manage risk accordingly. This is not financial advice, but an analytical overview based on current technicals.