Comprehensive Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of July 30, 2025

1. Trend Analysis (Price Action, Moving Averages)

Daily Trend Detection

• Macro Trend: Reviewing the daily closing prices over the last three months, BTC trended upwards from ~95,000 (early May) to ~119,000 (mid-July), but July has seen more sideways action with increased volatility.
• Recent Sessions: The price has repeatedly tested the 117,000–119,000 band since July 10, suggesting strong resistance above 119,000 (multiple rejections) and support in the 116,000–117,000 zone.
• Shorter Time Frame: The latest hourly bars show a failed attempt to break 118,600, followed by a sharp selloff to 116,500, and a partial recovery to 117,080 at the current hour. This 'lower high' and weak bounce indicate waning bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

• Short-term (7 EMA): Quick calculation puts the 7-period EMA near 117,700, above the current price, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
• Medium-term (21 EMA): Now at approximately 118,300. Price is under both short and medium EMAs.
• Long-term (50 EMA): Approximates to 117,900. Price is also under the 50 EMA.
• Conclusion: Trading below the most commonly watched moving averages signals increased risk of further downside.

2. Volume and Volatility Analysis

• Volume Spike: Notable volume surge in the hours around 18:00–20:00 UTC (July 30), with ~12–15B in an hour, coinciding with the price drop from 117,900 to 116,500; this likely marks a sell-off event, not mere profit-taking or normal chop.
• ATR (Average True Range): Visually, the daily range increased sharply in the last 48 hours, so ATR is expanding—a classic precursor to further volatility and trend acceleration.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: 117,900–118,700 • confirmed by recent highs.
• Primary Resistance: 119,500–120,000 • multiple failed breakouts mid-July.
• Immediate Support: 116,000–116,500 • the flash low in the recent sell-off.
• Crucial Support: 114,800–115,700 • June 25–29 swing lows and the July 25 drop base.

4. Chart Patterns and Price Structures

• Head and Shoulders Top (Short-Term): Classic distribution zone visible in July:
  • Left shoulder: July 9–12 highs (115.9K–117.5K)
  • Head: July 13–15 spike to 123,000
  • Right shoulder: July 21–27 (117.5K–119K)
  • Neckline: 117,000–117,500 zone, recently broken and tested, then rejected
• Bearish Flag (Intraday): The failed recovery to 117,800 after the large red hourly candle is a bear flag, suggesting room for further continuation.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Estimating visually, the last few days show RSI hugging the 50–60 band but dipping lower on today's sell-off—indicative of decreasing bull strength.
• MACD: Histogram likely to be rolling over (bearish cross), as price is under longer EMAs with downward acceleration.

6. Order Flow & Liquidity Analysis

• Large Volume at Local Lows: High volume at the 116,500 low hints at some short-term buying, but the lack of a strong bounce and repeated failures to clear 118K suggest supply overwhelms demand above 117,900.
• Absorption/Distribution: The persistent rejection above 119,000 and heavy selling volume suggest institutions or large traders distributing rather than absorbing supply.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• May Low (~94,000) to July High (123,000):
  • 38.2% retrace: ~112,820
  • 50% retrace: ~108,500
  • 61.8% retrace: ~104,200
• Price has corrected around 5% off its high, but there's ample room for a deeper retrace, especially if 116,000 breaks.

8. Sentiment/Behavioral Elements

• Repeated Attempts and Failure: Traders are likely growing frustrated with failed breakouts. The persistent supply above 119,000 is sapping bullish conviction, prime for a shakeout.
• Whipsaws: Expanding volatility, with long wicks and big hourly bars, suggest stop runs and "bull trap"/"bear trap" conditions—right now, the trap appears to be set for bulls.

9. Composite/Multifactor Conclusion

• Short-term Momentum is now with the bears, with EMAs and patterns reinforcing a likely drop.
• Range Structure suggests 116,000–115,000 is the next likely magnet for price, before possibly oversold bounces.
• Bearish Exhaustion Zone: If the 116,000–115,000 area holds, expect a pause or brief bounce, but a break below could cascade towards 112,800 (Fib 38.2%) or even 110,000 (psychological).

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Final 24-Hour Prediction: Bitcoin is primed for further short-term downside, targeting the 115,500–116,000 support band. Only a forceful reclaim of 118,600–119,000 would flip the immediate outlook back to neutral/bullish (unlikely without new catalyst). Expect volatility as stops are triggered below support levels.

Optimal Trade Setup: Enter a short (sell) position on a minor bounce to 117,450 (current resistance/flag top). Target profit at 115,600 (prior swing low/support shell). Place a tight stop above the 118,100 pivot for risk management.

This analysis combines price action, moving averages, volume/ATR, classical chart patterns, Fibonacci retracement, and sentiment for a robust prediction.