Detailed Technical Analysis: BTC/USD — July 31, 2025

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1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

🟢 Long-Term (3-Month) Perspective

• May-July: Steady uptrend from ~$95,000 to the peak region above $123,000 (mid-July), demonstrating classic bullish momentum and new all-time highs, followed by a correction.
• Mid-July Correction: Price sharply rejected at $123,000 (July 14), multiple failed attempts to reclaim that level confirmed a secondary lower high ($120,850 on July 18).
• Pattern: Large ascending channel (now broken to the downside). Increasing volatility and volume spikes at peaks indicate profit-taking and distribution above $120,000.

🟡 Medium-Term (4-Week) Context

• Last 3 Weeks: Repeated tests and failures to hold above $120k; descending highs from July 13 onward. Lower support gradually shifting from ~$119,500 down to $117,000, now breached.
• Recent Support Broken: Today's close ($116,485.04) is the lowest since mid-June, strongly suggesting a short-term trend reversal.

🔴 Short-Term (72h/24h/Hourly)

• Intraday Structure: After initial support around $117,900 failed, successive hours show lower lows and lower highs: $118,600 → $117,900 → $117,700 → $116,779 (19:00) → $116,455 (20:00) → $116,485 (final candle). Final 3 hourly candles show aggressive downside momentum with high volume (11B, 6B, 0.7B USD per hour), indicating panic sell-off or cascade liquidations.

2. Volume and Volatility Analysis

• Volume Spike: Previous local tops ($123k, $120k) and pattern breaks (today's drop below $117.9k and $117k) coincide with above-average volume, confirming conviction in new direction.
• ATR (Average True Range), Estimated: Daily ATR recently expanded from ~$1,500 to over $2,500 — high volatility regime. Volatility expansion after a failed bull rally often signals further downside.

3. Classic Technical Indicators

• RSI (14d, estimated): Transitioned from overbought (>70) above $120k, now likely in neutral-to-bearish territory (~45–50) after several red days. No classic bullish divergence; if anything, momentum remains to the downside.
• MACD (12,26,9, visual estimate): Bearish cross occurred shortly after July 14 peak. Histogram expanding negative over the past 3–5 sessions with the spread widening, confirming bearish momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Most recent leg down moved stochastics from neutral (45–55) quickly toward oversold (<25), yet major rebounds are usually preceded by a bullish catalyst; none observed in current session.
• Moving Averages:
  • EMA 21/55 (Estimated): Price below all significant short/medium EMAs (e.g., 21h, 55h slopes negative). 21-period EMA resistance observed near $117.5k (failed retest 1h ago). 55-period EMA resistance higher, at $118.5–119k.
  • 200h SMA (Estimated): Support lost last session; market now in technical lower territory.

4. Chart Patterns & Key Levels

• Double/Triple Top: Strong resistance zone established at $123k–$120.9k — clear multi-top structure signaling uptrend exhaustion.
• Rising Wedge/Channel: Confirmed break down yesterday, with retest and rejection. This pattern projects a measured move toward the base of the last major consolidation zone, i.e., $114,800–$115,500.
• Support Zones:
  • Short-Term: $116,500 (now being tested/violated), then $115,765 (July 15 low), then $114,800 (July 25 intraday low).
  • Major Structural: $112,000 (June 28-29 highs, untested as support since breakout), and even $110,000 (psychological + prior high volume node).
• Resistance Zones: $117,900–$119,000 now acts as overhead supply; $118,600 (failed hourly retest); $119,500 (mid-term swing).

5. Order Flow & Market Structure

• Orderbook Thinness Below $116k: Recent price action suggests market depth thins considerably below $116,000; combined with high volume exit candles, more downside probable before new bids appear.
• Liquidations: Strong wicks, speed of descent, and volume imply liquidations triggering additional downward momentum.

6. Sentiment & Momentum

• Momentum: Both price and oscillator momentum are strongly negative; no suggestion of mean reversion bounce yet.
• Sentiment: Market shows shift from bullish FOMO/greed in early July to quick uncertainty/panic, suggested by volume and price velocity.

7. Prediction — Next 24h Outlook

• Baseline: Downtrend likely to continue for another session as long as $117,000–$117,400 resistance caps rebounds.
• Projected Range: High probability for price to test $115,800 – $114,800 support band within the next 24 hours.
• Downside Risk: If triggered sell stops break $114,800, accelerated move toward $112,000 possible before stabilization.
• Minor Upside Possibility: Dead cat bounces to $117,000–$117,400 should be viewed as shorting opportunities unless the price closes steadily above $118,000 with volume and a reclaimed EMA 21.

8. Trade Plan & Risk Management

• Bias: Favoring a short position due to consecutive breakdowns, momentum, volume, and failed rebids.
• Stop Loss (not requested, but advisable): Should aggressively trailing above $117,700 to mitigate sudden bounces.
• Take Profit: Prefer measured move through $115,800 with a main target on $114,900 (structural support). Possible opportunity to take partial profits ahead of $112,000 if capitulation unfolds faster.

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Conclusion:

• High conviction short entry is indicated, capitalizing on persistent bearish momentum, recent volume signals, and critical technical breaks. Manage risk on bounces and reassess if $117.5k is reclaimed.