Comprehensive Technical Analysis of BTC Price Action (as of August 1, 2025)

1. Trend Identification (Multi-Timeframe)

Daily Chart:

• The daily chart shows a rapid rally from $94,000 to a peak around $123,000 (July 14), followed by a broad consolidation in the $117,000–$120,000 region.
• The last week of July saw a breakdown, with lower highs forming and the price dropping consistently, reaching current levels around $113,850.
• This signifies a reversal from a strong uptrend into a correction or the early phase of a downtrend.

4-Hour/Hourly Chart:

• Short-term, price action has remained below previous support (now resistance) of ~$115,000–$117,000.
• Intraday, BTC repeatedly tried to reclaim $115,000 and failed, forming a bear flag below that level.
• Price fell sharply in the hours preceding the current candle (~$117,900 to $113,200), then consolidated just above $113,800.
• The narrative is of lower highs, lower lows, and failed recovery attempts—textbook early downtrend behavior.

2. Chart Patterns and Price Structure

Double Top Formation:

• Strong evidence of a double top pattern between July 13 ($119,116) and July 23/24 ($119,995), followed by a breakdown and failure to hold $117,000–$118,000 support.
• The double top’s neckline sits around $117,000—recent price action decisively broke below, retested, and was rejected.

Bear Flag on Lower Timeframes:

• The consolidation from $113,200–$115,000 is a classic bear flag after a vertical drop, suggesting a probable continuation lower.

3. Moving Averages (MA and EMA)

• 50-day SMA: Using recent price progression, the 50d SMA has started turning down around $117,000, likely now acting as resistance.
• 20-day EMA: Sloping downward, currently near $115,500 (approximate based on recent closes), also failed to provide support.
• 200-day SMA: Remains in an uptrend but is significantly below current price (around $105,000–$108,000), suggesting room for further mean reversion.
• Short-Term (20/50-hour EMAs): Price is well below these, and even failed to reclaim them on the last bounce attempt, strengthening the short-term bearish signal.

4. Volume Analysis

• Significant volume spikes on down days (especially July 25, July 30, and August 1) indicate heavy distribution, confirming selling strength.
• Upward relief rallies were comparatively low-volume, which is not encouraging for bulls.
• Latest drop from $117k to $113k came on above-average volume.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Momentum

• Daily RSI: Likely in the 38–45 range after the sharp drop—heading to oversold but not yet at a reversal threshold.
• Hourly/4-Hour RSI: Brief dips to oversold territory (low 30s), but given the overall downtrend, these bounces are likely to be short-lived.
• Overall Momentum: Negative; momentum indicators across timeframes are bearish, with MACD showing strong red bars and negative crossovers on daily and 4h.

6. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Resistance: $115,000–$115,500 (prior support, now resistance); $117,000 (major breakdown level); $120,000 (trend high).
• Immediate Support: $113,200 (local low just made); below that, $112,000–$110,600 are significant volume profile and previous congestion zones.
• Major Support: $107,000–$108,000 (200-day MA area, previous basing zone); psychological: $110,000.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• Recent swing low ($94,000) to swing high ($123,000):
  • 23.6% retrace: ~$116,000 (broken)
  • 38.2% retrace: ~$112,000–$113,000 (key next support)
  • 50% retrace: ~$108,500
  • 61.8% retrace: ~$105,000
  • BTC just dropped through 23.6%, targeting 38.2% next; if broken, extra downside opens.

8. Volatility and ATR

• 14-day ATR (average true range) is elevated after recent moves (>$3,000 per day), indicating increased volatility and further opportunity for big moves in either direction.
• Such volatility often presages sustained trend moves rather than quick reversals.

9. Market Sentiment and Liquidity Structure

• Based on volume clusters and failed recoveries, the market is in a risk-off mode.
• Bulls failed to defend several key support levels; late longs likely trapped above $117,000 and $115,000, creating further forced selling risk.

10. Candlestick Patterns

• Recent daily candles: large bearish engulfing, followed by lower closes with long upper wicks (failed recovery attempts)—all bearish signals.
• Latest intraday candles: small-bodied, indecisive, but always closing below open, suggesting persistent sell pressure.

11. Order Flow and Liquidity Traps

• Massive breakdown through $117,000 induced cascading liquidations; little evidence of a strong bid emerging at current support.
• If $113,200 fails, next major liquidity likely at $112k and then $110k.

12. Macro and Fundamental Overlay

• No reversal catalyst visible; market appears driven by technical signals.
• Halving/inflation narratives exhausted for the moment; the recent rally faded on low momentum and broad market risk-off behavior.

13. Synthesis and Historical Analogues

• The post-parabolic drawdown structure now resembles earlier BTC cycles, where the first support break triggers a further 8–12% downside before genuine buyers step in (e.g., 1H/2Q 2024).
• Lacking bullish divergences; historical mean reversion targets not yet reached.

Conclusion & 24h Forecast

• All short/medium-term technicals agree on further downside unless a dramatic recovery occurs.
• Expect continuation lower toward $112,000 and possibly $110,000 in the next 24 hours, barring an immediate reclaim of $115,500.

Actionable Decision

The technical evidence strongly favors Sell (Short Position) at any meaningful bounce to $114,500–$115,000, targeting a move down to the next visible support band at $112,000.

• Entry (Sell): $114,500 (optimizing risk/reward; use limit order or on next relief bounce)
• Take Profit (Buy to Close): $112,000
• Stop Loss: Not requested, but prudent to place above $115,500 (prior failed recovery).

If unable to chase a bounce, aggressive short entry at current price ($113,836) is still viable with slightly higher risk.

Recommendation: SELL (SHORT POSITION) on bounce toward $114,500, targeting $112,000 within 24 hours.

This strategy leverages confirmation from multi-timeframe trends, moving averages, chart patterns, breakdown momentum, volume, and volatility measures. Remain vigilant for any sudden reversal above $116,000, as it would invalidate the signal.