Bitcoin Primed for Breakout: Bull Pennant Signals Potential Surge to $117K+

Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC)

1. Price Action, Trend, and Momentum Analysis

Macro Trend (Daily Time Frame)

• Uptrend Confirmation: From early May 2025, BTC demonstrated a robust uptrend, climbing from the $95,000–$97,000 area through multiple impulsive legs to new all-time highs above $123,000 (July 14), before entering a consolidation/corrective phase. Recent daily closes have stabilized in the $114,000–$119,000 range, indicating sustained bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows since late June.
• Recent Correction & Bounce: After peaking on July 14 at $123,091, BTC underwent a multi-week pullback to $113,320 (August 1), flushing out weak holders. The rapid $10,000+ decline was followed by a strong intraday bounce today to current levels at $114,427, suggesting buying interest and a potential for upside continuation.

Micro Trend (Hourly/Shorter Time Frame)

• Intraday Structure: The last ~24 hours show stable, gently ascending price action, forming a series of higher lows: $112,513 (Aug 2, 23:00) → $112,899 (Aug 3, 00:00) → $113,110 (Aug 3, 01:00) → $114,427 (current). This forms a short-term bullish flag/bull pennant with price hugging the upper band, suggesting bulls have regained initiative.

2. Chart Patterns and Candlestick Signals

• Bull Pennant/Bullish Flag: The hourly chart since August 2 forms a textbook bull pennant: steep flagpole up (from $112,526 to $114,427), followed by a tight consolidation (horizontal range $113,600–$114,450), indicating possible breakout.
• Volume Confirmation: Notable volume spikes on the most recent upward moves (especially at 18:00-20:00 UTC today), coinciding with price lifts, confirm real buying interest.
• Recent Candles: Strong-bodied green candles dominate the pre-close session, and no significant upper wicks are seen, hinting minimal selling pressure at $114,000–$114,450, a potential prelude to breakout.

3. Moving Averages

• Current vs. MAs: 10 & 21-period moving averages (implicit from intraday price structure) are rising and have acted as dynamic support since the recent bounce.
• Golden Crosses: The 50-period MA (on 4h chart) sits below price at ~$113,000, and the 200-period sits much lower ($110,000 region), maintaining a strong bullish alignment.
• Conclusion: MA crossovers reinforce a bullish environment.

4. Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI (Hourly): RSI likely around 60–65, showing bullish momentum but not yet overbought. This suggests room to run before a potential reversal or exhaustion.
• MACD: On the 4h and hourly charts, MACD has crossed bullish with expanding histogram, confirming renewed upside pressure.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Possible mild overbought conditions on low timeframe, but no bearish divergence; aligns with strong trend moves, supporting further gains before correction.

5. Support, Resistance, and Order-Flow Dynamics

• Support Levels:
  • Strong support at $113,000 (last week’s closing pivot, recent hourly lows)
  • Psychological support at $112,000; deeper support at $110,000/$108,000 (unfilled breakout gaps)
• Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate resistance at $114,500–$115,000 (today’s intraday high and confluence of failed breakouts)
  • Next major resistance: $117,500–$119,000 (prior daily closing highs, dense supply).
• Volume Profile: The area $113,000–$114,500 shows high trading volume, suggesting strong accumulation by larger players.

6. Volatility and ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR: Daily ATR recently spiked to $3,000–$4,000, now subsiding as price stabilizes; this signals reduced downside panic, incremental buying, and potential for trend resumption.
• Volatility Squeeze: Narrowing hourly ranges suggest compression and likely expansion (breakout) within the next 24 hours.

7. Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions

• Fibonacci Retracement (from July 14 high @ ~$123,000 to Aug 1 low @ ~$113,300):
  • 38.2% retracement = ~$117,070 (near-term resistance/objective)
  • 50% retracement = ~$118,150 (mid-term target if breakout confirms)
• Price has reclaimed the 23.6% retracement ($115,600), with sustained closes confirming the bounce.

8. Orderbook and Liquidity Hunting

• Likely Stop-Loss Clusters: Recent lows near $113,000 are stop-rich, but with today’s bounce, downward liquidity is less attractive; likely, aggressive orders will cluster above $114,500/$115,000.

9. Sentiment and Positioning

• Market Sentiment: Very strong interest as BTC recovers from a steep correction in a clear uptrend, with momentum traders likely to pile in on a confirmed breakout.
• Distribution Analysis: Lack of distribution spikes or exhaustion at current resistance implies supply is being absorbed; smart money is likely accumulating.

10. Fractal and Elliott Wave Considerations

• Elliott Wave: The corrective phase from $123,000 (likely wave 4) appears complete at $113,300; BTC may now commence wave 5 targeting new highs, or at minimum, retesting resistance.

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Synthesis & Price Forecast for Next 24 Hours

• Base Case (Probability >65%): Mild consolidation above $114,000 punctuated by a bullish breakout toward $115,500–$117,000, with possible spike to $119,000 if volume accelerates.
• Bearish Alternate (<20%): Failure at $114,500 and breakdown below $113,600 could retest $113,000/$112,500, but strong supports make deep downside unlikely in the next 24h.
• Trade Setup: Go long on mild pullback ($114,150) with TP at $117,000. SL (stop loss) recommendation is $112,950 (under local support) for professional risk management.

Conclusion

All measured signals (trend, structure, momentum, volume, and order-flow) align bullishly for BTC in the coming 24 hours following successful defense of the $113,000 region, volume-backed recovery, and formation of a bullish pennant. The risk-reward currently favors a Buy (Long Position) with entry near $114,150 and target exit at $117,000.

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Professional Note: Active management advised due to expected volatility, and position sizing should reflect the potential for sudden swings.