Step 1: Overview and Context

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $114,811.17 as of August 4, 2025. After a sharp rally in mid-July above $120,000, price pulled back to the $113,000 region and has since stabilized with moderate intraday volatility. Volumes have been consistently high during this period, indicating active market participation.

Step 2: Trend Analysis

Daily Trend

• Medium-term Trend: Since early May, BTC has trended upwards from ~$96,800 to recent highs above $120,000. After breaking $120K on July 10–14, it faced resistance around $123,000 (ATH for this period), followed by a correction and stabilization in the $115,000 to $118,000 zone.
• Short-term Trend: Over the past 7–10 days, the trend is sideways to slightly bearish as price consolidates under $118K, forming lower highs and marginally lower closes.

Hourly/Intraday Trend

• Last 24 hours show tight rangebound trading: $114,220–$115,700, mostly hugging the $114,700–$115,000 area, with rejection wicks at higher spikes. Volume spikes coincide with attempts above $115,300 (08/04 16:00–17:00).
• Minor support seen at $114,200 and immediate resistance at $115,400–$115,700.

Step 3: Chart Patterns

• Descending Channel: Since hitting highs above $119K, BTC is trading within a descending channel (lower highs, lower lows on daily).
• Support and Resistance: The $113,000–$114,000 zone is acting as strong support, while $117,500–$118,000 remains key resistance.
• Potential Double Bottom: The move to $113,320 (08/01) and recovery suggests a double bottom structure is being formed IF $113,000 holds.
• No evident bullish reversal yet; more likely a consolidation phase within a larger bullish trend.

Step 4: Technical Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Calculated estimate based on recent data, RSI is around mid-40s to low-50s — neutral to mildly oversold zone, not showing clear divergence or overextension.
• MACD: Momentum is neutral to slightly bearish; histogram likely narrowing. No strong bullish crossover signal; previous bullish cross in late June–early July led the run to $120K, but now MACD lines converged.
• Moving Averages: 20-day MA is around $116,000, 50-day near $115,000. Price is oscillating just around these averages. This is characteristic of consolidation, MA flattening, not trending strongly.
• ATR (Average True Range) and Volatility: After a high ATR in mid-July, volatility has eased. Intraday swings are tight – an early sign of a potential bigger move coming but currently muted.

Step 5: Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike at July's Top: Highest volume day was July 14's top ($181B), strong distribution at highs.
• Recent Volume Pattern: Diminished on down-days, higher on attempted upside bounces, indicating dip-buying interest is still present but cautious.
• No clear from-volume accumulation (sideways/dull volume on dull days).

Step 6: Combined Oscillator Readings

• No extreme oversold/overbought readings.
• Divergence between price and oscillators is mild and not actionable here.

Step 7: Order Flow & Price Structure (Market Profile Logic)

• Strong buyers are supporting price above $113K (multiple lower wicks).
• Sellers are active above $115,400, capping further advances during current sessions.
• Neutral-to-bearish structure intraday, but larger support base remains intact.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Using the rally low (~$97K, May) to the peak ($123K, July):
  • 23.6%: ~ $117,000
  • 38.2%: ~ $112,000
  • 50%: ~ $110,000
• BTC is hovering just above the key 38.2% retracement (at ~$112,000), retesting that area on 08/01 and rejecting lower. Suggests buyers are defending this retrace zone, a classic end-of-correction area in uptrends.

Step 9: Sentiment & Macro Considerations

• Market sentiment is mixed: no panic sell-off, but post-rally exhaustion is visible.
• No clear bearish catalyst on news. ETF volumes remain strong; mining flows neutral.
• Macro (USD, global risk) remains stable; no risk-off event detected.

Step 10: Strategy Synthesis

Bullish Arguments

• Higher high/higher low structure intact on larger timeframes.
• Double bottom at $113,000 area; buyers defending key retracement.
• Diminishing downside volatility and flatlining oscillators could precede an upside move.
• Medium- and long-term uptrend is intact.

Bearish/Neutral Arguments

• Evidence of distribution at highs, capped at $117K+.
• Inability to recapture $116,000–$117,000 area on lower timeframes.
• Sideways ranging and lack of directional momentum — risk of further consolidation.

Step 11: Price Prediction — Next 24h

• Expect another test of $114,000 support, but not a breakdown; likely bounce back toward $115,600 and possibly $116,000 if bulls step in.
• No clear catalyst for deep downside unless $113,000 is lost (unlikely given multiple recent rejections below this level).
• Upside limited to $116,500 for the next session barring new momentum.

Step 12: Risk Management & Trade Plan

• Given the confluence of support at $113,000–$114,000, and evidence of absorption on pullbacks, the optimal trade is to buy dips near present value, with a target just below the lower resistance zone, capturing the expected mean reversion within the range.
• Stop loss placement: A prudent stop loss would be set slightly below $113,000, as breaking this level would invalidate the current bullish-reversal hypothesis.

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SUMMARY JUDGMENT:

• Consolidation phase near key support, no strong breakout signal yet.
• More probable to see an upside mean reversion move in the next 24h.
• Decision: Buy (Long Position) at current/nearby levels for a swing toward first resistance overhead ($116,400).