STEP-BY-STEP BTC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (2025-08-06)

1. Trend & Pattern Analysis

A. Long-Term Trend

• Daily Chart: Since May 2025, BTC has experienced a large bullish surge from ~$100,000 to recent highs near $123,000 (mid-July), before correcting towards $112,000 and forming a wide consolidation range between $112,000 and $120,000. Over the past two weeks, price has shown lower highs ($123k → $120k → $119k) and periods of deeper dips, but support consistently emerges in the $112,000-$114,000 region.

• Chart Patterns:

  • Mid-July: Strong upper-shadowed candles >$120,000 suggest supply/distrubution. The break under $118k confirmed a local top at $123k.
  • End July - Early August: The tight range between $112,000-$118,000 resembles a descending triangle, typically bearish when at elevated prices.
  • Recent Bounce: Strong bounce off $113,395 (Aug 6 low) to $115,694 (intraday), suggests buyers defending $113,500 level.

B. Short-Term Candlestick Patterns & Order Flow

• Intraday (hourly/fine resolution):
  • Last ~24 hours are showing bullish hammer and reversal candles, especially after dipping below $114,000 and quickly being bought up.
  • Higher lows from $113,395 → $114,059 → $114,974 → $115,504 → $115,710, indicating bulls are regaining strength.
  • Evidence of absorption of supply near $115,500-115,700.

2. Volume and Momentum Analysis

• Volume Profile:
  • Heavy volume spikes during down-moves ($119k → $115k on Jul 31 - Aug 2), indicating strong bouts of selling.
  • The bounce from $112,500 to $115,106 occurred on relatively lower volume, implying some caution on the side of buyers but also suggesting sellers are exhausted below $114,000.
  • Recent sessions see moderate volume confirming the current bounce.
• Momentum Oscillators (RSI/MACD):
  • RSI (Estimated from price movement): After reaching overbought (>70) during the mid-July surge, RSI likely fell to ~40 near yesterday’s lows and is now rebounding towards the 50-55 area, suggesting a recovery from a minor oversold condition, not yet overbought.
  • MACD: Histogram most likely crossed up from negative to positive territory on the hourly, showing recovering momentum. Daily MACD line is still above zero, indicating the long-term bullish bias is intact.

3. Moving Averages & Key Levels

• Daily 20/50-SMA: Estimated 20-SMA lies near $116,000, with 50-SMA (~$114,200), serving as dynamic support and current price ($115,106) nestled right in-between these. Price, after retesting the 50-SMA, is rebounding and could target the faster MA as resistance.
• 4h 200-MA: Likely sits near $114,000, which was successfully defended intraday.

4. Support/Resistance (Supply & Demand Zones)

• Immediate Support:
  • $113,400 - $114,200 (multiple bounces, previous lows, 4H/50D MA confluence)
  • $112,000 (recent lows, July 31–Aug 2)
• Immediate Resistance:
  • $115,800 - $116,200 (local highs, 20D SMA)
  • $117,000 (post-breakdown supply, July 29/30 breakdown area)
  • $118,200+ (major overhead from July swings)

5. Fibonacci Retracement

• Swing $112,000 (recent low) to $123,000 (recent high):
  • 38.2% = ~$118,000
  • 50% = ~$117,500
  • 61.8% = ~$116,200
    • BTC is consolidating between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. The rejection of deeper retracement (below $113,000) gives a bullish tilt for a retrace to $116k+.

6. Volatility & Market Psychology

• ATR and Range: Daily price swings remain expansive ($2,000–$3,000), suggesting volatility is still very high. Market is likely to produce sharp rallies or selloffs on order imbalances.
• Sentiment/Positioning:
  • Multiple failed breakdowns below $114k, and higher hourly closes, point to negative sentiment shifting towards a short-term squeeze if $115,700 is broken.

7. On-Chain and Macro (Contextual)

• While not represented in the current chart, price structure suggests that neither large panic selling nor mass inflows/outflows are disrupting the technicals. The market is returning to technical trading after a sharp correction and medium-term bullishness is not invalidated.

8. Confluence and Synthesis (All Methods Together)

• Multiple technical tools (support from moving averages, bullish reversal candles, RSI rebound from oversold, failed breakdowns, and sweeping of 78.6% retrace and defense) point to the likelihood of a short-term bounce.
• Assuming current buyer strength persists, a move towards $116,000–$117,000 can unfold as shorts cover and momentum players step in on a confirmed move above $115,300. Stops below $114,000 are likely, so a break below would quickly negate this thesis.

9. Risk Management & Trade Structure

• The trend is up, support is holding, and strong sellers have failed to break down price on multiple attempts.
• Given overhead resistance zones, profit targets should remain ambitious but conservative inside $117,000.

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Conclusion: Technicals support a tactical long from minor retracements near $115,000 for a bounce to $116,800. Major resistance above $117,000, so exits should be staged before this wall. Invalidation on a clean break below $113,700 (tight risk).