Bitcoin Breakout: Bulls Prepare for a $120,000 Surge After Key Resistance Breached

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Technical Analysis and Trading Outlook (as of August 7, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: BTC has been in a strong uptrend since mid-May, with a series of higher highs (notably in July, breaking above $120,000 and spiking to $123,000) and higher lows. After each major pullback (e.g., late June and early August), buyers have stepped in, driving the price higher -- a sign of bullish accumulation.
• Short-Term Trend: The recent price change from ~$112,000 (August 2) to ~$117,000 (August 7) shows renewed bullish momentum after downside exhaustion. Volatility has increased, as reflected in wider daily price ranges and larger hourly price bars during US trading hours.

2. Support & Resistance

• Major Resistance: $119,000–$120,000 (July highs, multiple rejections).
• Immediate Resistance: $117,500 (today’s high and repeated inflections in past 48h).
• Support: $115,500 (recent local lows through early August 7); $114,300 (intraday low 2025-08-07 20:58:00 and the previous breakdown area).
• Deeper Support: $112,500 (August 2–3 closing lows); $110,000 (psychological, round number).

3. Candlestick Patterns

• Hourly Candlesticks: Aug 7 has shown a sequence of bullish engulfing candles (e.g., 19:00), followed by short-term doji/neutral candles, reflecting consolidation near $117,000.
• Daily Candles: Strong bullish close yesterday; today’s candle gapped up and is seeking to maintain gains above the prior resistance zone ($115,800–$116,400 becomes new support).

4. Volume Analysis

• Rising Volume on Bullish Moves: Major upswings this week (notably the surge on August 7th from $116,000 to $117,500) accompanied by high volumes ($12–14 billion+ per hour), confirming strength behind the rally.
• Volume Spikes at Breakouts: Notable volume spikes during the most recent breakout over $117,000 indicate institutional participation.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20-hour EMA): Estimated around $116,250, BTC is trading above this level, indicating short-term momentum is bullish.
• Medium-Term (50-hour SMA): Around $115,600, providing further support. All price action is above key moving averages --- this is a classic bullish setup.
• Daily 50/200 EMA: With the price so far above these longer-term averages (~$112,000–$108,000 respectively), trend following systems remain in Buy alignment.

6. Technical Indicators

• RSI (14-hour, est.): RSI likely in 65–70 range, signaling strong momentum but not severely overbought. On daily lookback, RSI in the high-60s, indicative of continuation potential (not reversal warning).
• MACD: On daily and intra-day, MACD lines are diverging, histogram expanding upward --- classic bullish crossover, signaling momentum still favors buyers.
• Stochastics: Hovering near upper region, but with no crossdown yet. Short-term can imply minor pullback or consolidation, but not a full reversal.
• ATR (Average True Range): Intraday volatility is increasing, suggesting price expansion is likely to continue, favoring breakout traders.

7. Chart Patterns / Market Structure

• Ascending Triangle: From late July onward, BTC consolidated in a tightening range, making higher lows against ~$119,000 horizontal resistance; recent breakout aligns with this bullish pattern.
• Bull Flag / Pennant: The correction from $119,800 (July 14–28) and August’s basing above $112,000 suggest a classic bull flag --- continuation pattern with upside measured move targets above $120,000.

8. Order Flow and Liquidity Zones

• Order Block Absorption: Recent surges swiftly absorbed offers at $116,500–$117,200, suggesting whales were willing buyers there; low sell-side liquidity above $117,500 could trigger a sharp move higher if those offers thin.
• Stop Loss Clusters: Many short sellers likely stopped above $117,500, which could fuel a blow-off move toward old highs.

9. Sentiment and Optionality

• Momentum: All short-term signals (price above hourly supports, increasing volume, strong closes) favor continued bullish sentiment into the next 24 hours.
• Market Positioning: As the move consolidates above prior resistance, late shorts may be squeezed, while trend followers increase risk-on positions.

10. Probability-Adjusted Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

• Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Weighted 75%): BTC consolidates above $117,000, then breaks through minor resistance at $117,500, quickly testing $119,000–$120,000. High volume confirms the breakout, short squeeze accelerates the move.
• Scenario 2 – Range-Bound/Minor Pullback (Weighted 20%): Intraday profit-taking sees a shallow dip toward $116,000–$116,250, where strong bids re-emerge. New buyers step in, maintaining higher low structure.
• Scenario 3 – Bearish Reversal (Weighted 5%): Unlikely unless macro news or sudden volume drop; only expected if BTC loses $115,500 with conviction and high volume.

11. Optimal Trade Plan for Next 24 Hours

Entry (Buy): Ideally, enter on a retracement to the $116,600–$117,000 zone, as this level has shown repeated buyer support and is just above the 20h EMA. Current price ($117,240) is acceptable with tight stops, but patience for a minor dip may improve risk/reward.

Target (Take Profit): $119,000 – aligns with previous July highs and likely to act as resistance on initial tests; potential for $120,000 if momentum surges.

12. Risk Management

• Stop-Loss: Recommended stop just below $115,500 (recent hourly support).
• Rationale: Pullbacks have consistently been bought above this level; breach would suggest failed breakout and larger correction.

---

Summary

Bias: High conviction Bullish. All technical, momentum, and volume signals align for further upside. Risk:reward favors long entries above $116,600, with a tactical target at $119,000. While brief pullbacks are possible, trend strategies and flow traders are likely to keep pressure on the upside.

---