BTC poised for a weekend pivot: Buying the 116.5k dip for a 118.2k rotation

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis (daily + hourly)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily trend: BTC remains in a broader medium-term uptrend that began off the late-June lows (~100–103k), put in a momentum expansion to mid-July highs (~123,092 on 2025-07-14), followed by a controlled pullback into early August (low ~112,527 on 2025-08-02). Since then, price has mean-reverted and is consolidating between ~115k and ~120k. The structure is higher highs and higher lows on the daily, with the current pause occurring just below the 20-day moving average zone. This looks like a healthy pullback within a secular uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
• Hourly trend (last 24–36h): Sideways-to-slightly-bullish chop. Intraday low printed near 115,939 (a flush/liquidity sweep). Subsequent lows have been higher (~116,38x), while tops capped below 117,65x. This is a narrowing intraday range with mild higher-low formation, consistent with accumulation just above key supports.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Support cluster: • 115,940: intraday low and liquidity sweep from the last 24h; pivotal short-term level. • 116,450–116,600: intraday shelf from multiple hours (micro demand/previous VWAP re-tests). Also aligns closely with Fibonacci 38.2% retracement (see below). • 116,000–116,100: round-number support and near an estimated daily Ichimoku Kijun equilibrium zone.
• Resistance cluster: • 117,650–117,700: hourly R1 pivot confluence and recent 24h intraday cap. • 118,200–118,500: upper intraday resistance band; matches classic pivot R2 zone and 50%–61.8% Fib retracement area from the July high to Aug 2 low. • 119,000–119,100: 61.8% Fib from the July high to Aug 2 low and prior late-July supply; strong cap within 24h unless momentum expands.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approximations from the visible series): • 20-day SMA is modestly above price (approx high-117ks to ~118k). Price is slightly below the 20D mean, a typical reversion zone where bounces often originate if the larger uptrend remains intact. • 50-day SMA trends upward around ~109–112k and sits well below price, confirming the broader bullish bias. • Read: Price between 20D and 50D MAs = pullback/consolidation in an uptrend. Expectation favors reversion upward toward the 20D mean over the next sessions, with intraday bounces ahead of that.
• Hourly MAs: Price has oscillated around the 20/50-hour moving averages today, signaling balance rather than trend acceleration. Notably, we are making slightly higher intraday lows against flat MAs—a constructive tilt.

4. Bollinger Bands (volatility and mean reversion)

• Daily BB: Mid-band (20D SMA) lies just above current price (~117.8k area). Price hugged/under-cut the mid, with lower band likely ~113–114k and upper band ~122k+. Mean reversion dynamic suggests a grind back toward 117.8–118.5k if downside pressure does not accelerate.
• Hourly BB: Bands are relatively tight after a range day, indicating volatility compression. This often precedes a short directional move. With higher intraday lows, the tilt marginally favors an upside expansion to test 117.7k then 118.2–118.5k.

5. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish (roughly mid-40s to low-50s by inference), consistent with a pullback inside an uptrend. No bearish extremes; room to lift.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering near neutral with minor positive divergences versus the 115,940 low. That favors a stabilization base and bounce attempts.
• MACD Daily: After turning down during the Aug pullback, the histogram appears to be contracting (less negative), indicative of waning downside momentum and potential for a bullish cross in coming sessions if price can reclaim 118k+.
• MACD Hourly: Flat/near-zero—no strong signal, in line with consolidation.
• Stochastics Intraday: Cycling from oversold to mid-range consistent with a choppy day; supports tactical buys near support and sells near resistance.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (equilibrium and support)

• Daily: BTC remains above the Kumo in the larger context (bullish bias). Price is hovering near/just below the Tenkan, with Kijun likely around 116k area, a common ‘mean’ pullback level. Tests of Kijun often provide support if trend is intact; a hold above/around 116k frequently leads to re-rotation higher toward Tenkan then prior highs.
• Hourly: Price has oscillated around the cloud with flat Kijun/Tenkan segments—indicative of equilibrium. A clean push and hold above ~117k–117.2k would open 117.7k then 118.2k.

7. Fibonacci mapping (July top to Aug 2 low)

• Swing high 2025-07-14: ~123,091
• Swing low 2025-08-02: ~112,527
• Range: ~10,564 • 38.2%: ~116,562 (exactly in today’s defended zone; strong confluence) • 50.0%: ~117,809 (first major upside objective over 24h) • 61.8%: ~119,056 (secondary objective if momentum expands) This places current price (116,844) between 38.2% and 50%, suggesting near-term tendency to test the 50% level (~117.8k) if 116.5–116.6k holds.

8. Classical pivots (using the last 24h H/L/C)

• H ≈ 117,652; L ≈ 115,940; C ≈ 116,845
• Pivot P ≈ 116,813
• R1 ≈ 117,685; S1 ≈ 115,973; R2 ≈ 118,525; S2 ≈ 115,100 Price is currently right near P; when price sits on P after holding S1, the next rotation commonly tests R1. If R1 breaks, an extension to R2 (118.5k) is typical.

9. Volume and market profile insights

• Daily volume: Elevated during mid-July rally, then tapered into the consolidation—typical post-trend digestion. No climactic distribution noted lately.
• Intraday: Heavier volumes around the drop to 115,940 and subsequent recoveries suggest dip-buying interest. Value seems to be forming in the mid-116ks to mid-117ks; acceptance here often precedes an attempt to probe the upper value edge (117.7–118.2k).

10. Candlestick/price action

• Daily: Recent candles largely small-bodied with wicks—balance behavior after the early-August flush. That’s consistent with absorption rather than aggressive selling.
• Hourly: Multiple rejections below ~116.5–116.6 quickly reclaiming—bullish microstructure. Upper shadows near 117.6 indicate supply overhead but not increasing in intensity.

11. Wyckoff lens

• Phase B/C within a trading range (approx 115–120k), with a spring-like dip to 115,94k and quick recovery. That pattern typically transitions to a test and then a markup attempt toward the top of the range if demand continues absorbing supply.

12. Elliott perspective (heuristic)

• July leg looks like an impulsive wave; the early-August dip resembles a wave-4 style correction. Intraday consolidation could be a minor subwave base within an emergent wave attempting to retest 118–119k first. Over 24 hours, expect a modest advance rather than full trend acceleration.

13. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• Trend strength on intraday frames is modest; daily remains constructive. This favors range-trading tactics: buy near support, take profits into nearby resistance.

14. VWAP / mean reversion (intraday)

• Price has oscillated around session VWAP (~mid-116.8s). Buying modest dips below VWAP and targeting the upper band (R1/R2) aligns with current tape. If price holds above VWAP into the US close/early Asia, a push to R1/R2 is probable.

15. Risk factors and invalidations (within 24 hours)

• Bearish break: A decisive and sustained break below 115,940 would negate the higher-low pattern and open 115,10x (S2) quickly. That would invalidate the long bias intraday.
• Choppy risk: Friday-to-weekend liquidity can be patchy. Expect whipsaws near P/R1/S1. Execute with disciplined entries.

16. Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Confluence of supports around 116,0–116,6 (Fib 38.2% ~116,562; Pivot S1 ~115,973; Kijun-equilibrium) has held. Momentum is neutral but improving, and the pattern of higher intraday lows suggests accumulation. Probabilities favor a rotation up to test 117,7 (R1 / Fib 50% ~117,809). If that breaks, extension to 118,2–118,5 is feasible within 24h.
• Strategy: Prefer Buy-the-dip near 116,4–116,6 with take-profit staged into 118,2 (first target). A more aggressive target is 118,45–118,52 (R2), but given weekend liquidity, 118,2 is the higher-probability print.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy (Long position).
• Optimal entry: Limit near 116,520 (confluence of intraday shelf and Fib 38.2%).
• Primary take-profit: 118,200 (below R2 and within the 24h expected move; also prior supply ledge).
• Risk/invalid: A firm hourly close below 115,900 would weaken the setup; a protective stop in the 115,700–115,800 zone would keep R:R around 2:1 toward 118,2.

Bottom line

• Expect a mild bullish rotation over the next 24 hours, with BTC likely to probe 117,7 then 118,2 if 116,0–116,6 support continues to hold. The higher-probability, capital-efficient play is a buy on a small pullback with an exit into the 118,2k supply band.