BTC coils in a tightening triangle: Favoring a dip-buy at 116.6k for a push toward 118.9k within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a tightening symmetrical triangle; favor a topside attempt toward 118.3–119.1k if 117.45/117.88 breaks. Base case is range 116.3–117.9 with upward skew.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip into 116.6k support with a target near 118.9k. Invalidation on a decisive hourly close below ~116.2k (discussed below).

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (Daily): Uptrend from the June 22 swing low (98,286) to the July 14 swing high (123,092), followed by a controlled pullback and consolidation. Price has defended the 38.2% retrace of that entire leg (≈113,616) on Aug 2 (low 112,527), then rebounded into a contracting range; structure remains bullish-above-neutral while above 112.5k–113.6k.
• Medium timeframe (4h/1h proxy from intraday prints): Clear descending series of lower highs since Jul 22 (119,995 → 118,920 → 117,676/117,497 → 117,883 today) versus rising lows since Aug 2 (112,527 → 114,141 → 116,379/116,414). This maps a symmetrical triangle, apex projected early next week. Current price (116,799.75) sits just over rising support and just under descending resistance at ≈117.7–117.9.
• Micro structure (hourly day-of data): Today printed a push to 117,883 at 10:00 UTC, then a gentle fade to 116,571 at 19:00, and a late recovery to 116,800. The day’s price action respected 116,56–116,70 as intraday demand and 117,45–117,88 as supply.

2. Key horizontal levels

• Support: 116,380–116,600 (intraday demand cluster and rising triangle support), 115,750–116,000 (Jul 31 close and Kijun/Tenkan zone), 115,070 (Aug 4 close), 114,141 (Aug 5 close), 112,527 (Aug 2 low, key defense at Fib 38.2%).
• Resistance: 117,450 (hourly close pivot), 117,880 (today’s spike high/descending trendline confluence), 118,370–118,755 (Jul 24–Jul 23 closes), 119,116 (Jul 13 close), 119,995–120,270 (Jul 22 high/round-number offer), 123,092 (July 14 high).

3. Moving averages and mean reversion context

• Daily SMA20: ≈116,892 (approximate from last 20 closes). Price is essentially at the 20SMA, implying neutral mean-reversion pressure and good R:R for responsive buying at/just below it.
• Daily SMA50: Estimated ≈112,800–113,200 (given the June–July average). Price is comfortably above the 50SMA, consistent with medium-term uptrend.
• Daily EMA alignment: Short EMAs likely flattening upward after the Aug 1–2 shakeout; slope modestly positive. Confluence: price hovering around EMA10/20 cluster implies “equilibrium,” often preceding a range expansion.

4. Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely in the mid-50s (neutral-to-slightly-bullish). No overbought condition; room to travel topside.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillated around the midline today; minor bullish momentum into the close after holding 116.57. No clear bearish divergence at the session high; momentum cooled but didn’t roll over hard.
• MACD (daily and 4h feel): MACD lines likely narrowing after the Aug bounce, with histogram close to zero; on 1h, a shallow bullish recapture into the session end suggests a potential upturn on a fresh push through 117.45.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ≈2,600–3,000. From 116.8k, a ±ATR envelope implies 114.0–119.6 for the next 24h, naturally bracketing the key resistance band 118.3–119.6.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Center ≈116.9k; implied bands roughly near 114.0–119.8. Price is hugging the mid-band, which argues for an expansion attempt. Squeeze is more pronounced on intraday frames today (hourly bandwidth narrowed as the day progressed), often a precursor to a directional move.

6. Ichimoku insights (daily/4h approximation)

• Price vs Kumo: Still above the daily cloud, maintaining an overall bullish bias.
• Kijun/Tenkan: Likely converged around 116.0–117.0. Price is oscillating around this equilibrium, where breakouts frequently originate. Chikou is not decisively obstructed until 118–119k, aligning with our resistance cluster.

7. Fibonacci mapping and confluences

• Primary swing (Jun 22 low 98,286 → Jul 14 high 123,092):
  • 38.2% = 113,616 (defended on Aug 2)
  • 50% = 110,689 (deeper support)
  • 61.8% = 107,769 (trend-invalidation zone for the entire wave) Holding above 38.2% is a constructive bull continuation signal.
• Secondary swing (Jul 31 high 118,920 → Aug 2 low 112,527):
  • 61.8% retrace = ≈116,684, directly under current price; repeated intraday bounces in 116.6–116.7 underscore this as strong local support.

8. Market profile / VWAP flavor (intraday)

• The day’s volume concentrated around 116.65–116.80, implying a session POC near 116.7. Price closed right on that node, with buyers defending under 116.6 on several tests—healthy for a late-session squeeze attempt if futures liquidity allows.

9. Pattern recognition

• Symmetrical triangle: descending resistance (~117.8 today) versus ascending support (~116.5–116.6). The apex is due early next week; probability of a pre-apex probe is elevated over weekends when liquidity is thinner. Classical expectation: continuation in the direction of the prior major move (up from June), but triangles can break either way; hence we pair bias with nearby invalidation.
• Candlesticks: Today’s candle shaping into a small real body within the top half of the daily range after defending mid-day lows—neutral-to-slightly-bullish. No bearish engulfing or shooting star dynamics at the daily scale.

10. ADX/Trend strength

• ADX (daily) likely in the high-teens/low-20s: trend is present but not dominant, which fits a consolidation/coil. As triangles resolve, ADX commonly rises with the breakout.

11. Liquidity and stop-hunt risk

• Sub-117k stops were harvested around 19:00 (low 116,571), with a swift snap-back. The persistence of bids near 116.6 suggests real demand; however, a final liquidity sweep toward 116.3–116.4 is plausible before an impulsive move.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Hold 116.4–116.6 support, then rotate higher. Trigger: 1h close above 117,450 opens a run to 117,880 trendline. A clean break and hold above 117,880 exposes 118,370 → 118,755 → 119,116. Stretch target near 119,6–119,9 (≈ATR high).
• Bear case (≈40–45%): Lose 116,560 on a decisive hourly close, then probe 116,200–115,950 (confluence with Kijun/late-July closes). Further failure risks a slide to 115,070 and 114,141. Only a daily close below 114.1 would tarnish the medium-term bullish structure; a break of 112.5 would flip bias bearish for a deeper retrace.

13. Confluence summary

• Bullish factors: Higher-timeframe uptrend intact; held 38.2% of the major leg; price above 50SMA and near 20SMA; repeated intraday defenses at 116.6; triangle structure with rising lows; room on RSI; potential MACD turn up; Ichimoku above cloud.
• Bearish risks: Stubborn descending resistance line; weekend liquidity; multiple overhead supply shelves 117.9–119.2; a triangle can false-break.
• Net: Slight edge to the upside with clear nearby invalidation, favoring a buy-the-dip approach rather than chasing into resistance.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry: Prefer a limit buy near 116,620 (just above rising support and today’s defended demand cluster). If missed, secondary momentum entry on 1h close >117,450 with tighter risk.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of execution fields): 115,950 (below intraday shelves and Kijun), or tighter 116,180 for more active risk.
• Take-profit: First tranche 117,880–118,370; runner toward 118,900 if breakout holds. For the single target in this task, we select 118,900 to capture the expected topside if resistance yields.
• Risk/Reward: From 116,620 to 115,950 risk ≈670; to 118,900 reward ≈2,280 → R:R ~3.4:1. Even with a nearer resistance peel at 118,370, R:R > 2:1.

15. 24h price path expectation

• Anticipate minor dip attempts into 116,55–116,65 that get bought; push to 117,45; decision point at 117,88. If accepted above 117,88, momentum spike to 118,37 and potential extension toward 118,90 before profit-taking into the weekly close.

Decision and levels

• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Open price: 116,620 (buy limit on a dip into support).
• Close price (TP): 118,900 (near upper ATR envelope and multi-resistance confluence).
• Invalidation guide (not in fields): Hourly close below ~116,200 weakens the setup; daily close below 115,070 negates the immediate bullish skew.

Risk note: Crypto trades around the clock with elevated volatility and weekend liquidity gaps. Size positions appropriately and respect stop discipline.