BTC rejects 122k: tactical short into 117k support before the next attempt higher

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Current price: 118,873.96. After a strong early-session squeeze to 122,321, BTC was rejected at the 122–123k supply, rolling over into a steady sequence of lower highs/lows intraday. My 24h base case is: continuation lower toward 118.2k → 117.3k support zone before any meaningful bounce. Tactical plan favors fading strength (short-on-rallies) rather than buying dips until 117.3k tests, where buyers may reassert.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since late June’s 98.3k pivot low (Jun 22), trend stair-stepped higher. A large impulsive leg into mid-July topped near 123.1k (Jul 14). Since then: a 112.5–123k range with several failed breakouts and demand building on dips near 116–117k. This is a consolidation (re-accumulation) within a broader uptrend.
• Intermediate (daily/4h): Price is still above the rising 50-day MA and roughly around the 20-day MA, indicating medium-term bullish bias but short-term neutrality. Repeated failures near 122–123k confirm a strong overhead supply. Today produced a tall upper wick from 122.3k down, turning the day into a potential shooting-star type candle if it closes near current levels—bearish short-term implication within the range.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear lower-highs sequence after the 06:00 high at 122.32k. Successive lower lows down to 118.59k at 20:00. Structure is a descending channel from 06:00 to now; rallies have been sold near prior minor pivot highs (120.76k at 16:00, then sub-120k afterward). That favors selling bounces rather than chasing shorts at lows.

Key levels and order flow context

• Resistance: 122.0–123.1k (multi-touch supply, July peak), 121.2–121.8k (intraday broken support turned resistance), 120.6–120.8k (late-session LH shelf), daily VWAP region today (approx 120.5–120.8k) overhead.
• Support: 118.6–118.8k (20:00 low and current price region), 117.2–117.8k (Fib 23.6% from 98.3k→123.1k projects ~117.24k, plus July/early-Aug demand band), 116.0–116.7k (prior range floor and 20-DMA neighborhood), 114.1–115.1k (secondary cushion if range floor breaches).
• Liquidity map: Likely resting sell liquidity above 120.0–120.3k (recent breakdown zone) and larger stops above 121.2k. On the downside, stop liquidity likely pools under 118.6k and then more significant beneath 117.8k/117.3k.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA: ~116.7k (approx from last 19 closes). Price currently modestly above it; intraday pullback is retesting the upper half of the 20-D band.
• 50-day SMA: rising, estimated ~111–112k. Price well above, signaling intact medium-term uptrend.
• Hourly 20/50-EMAs: Price has slipped below both as trend rolled over intraday. The slope on the 20-EMA turned down post 08:00, and the 50-EMA is flattening to slightly down. That combination supports near-term bearish momentum.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid-50s. Momentum neutral-positive on higher TF, not overbought. Leaves room for either direction within the range.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Likely shifted from overbought during the squeeze to mid/low readings as price trended down. The sequence of LH/LL suggests bearish momentum remains until a bullish divergence emerges near support (watch 117.8–117.3k for that).
• MACD (daily, est.): Above zero but histogram likely contracting. Indicates uptrend intact but momentum waning short-term. A minor bearish cross on 4h/hourly would fit today’s rejection.
• Stochastics (hourly, qualitative): Likely cycling lower; any oversold cross near 117.3–117.8k could trigger a tradable bounce, but not yet a reversal signal.

Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~3.0–3.2k. Today’s intraday high-low span (~3.7k) sits slightly above recent average—consistent with expansion from the rejection.
• 24h expected range: From 118.9k, a ±2.0–3.0k move is probable. Bear case objective fits 117.3k (≈ -1.6k) with tails possibly to 116.7k. Bull squeeze scenario could retest 120.5–121.2k (≈ +1.6–2.3k) but faces stacked resistance.

Bollinger and Keltner structure

• Daily Bollinger Bands: Center ~20-SMA near 116.7k; upper band likely ~121.5–122.5k; lower ~111–112k. Today tagged the upper neighborhood and mean-reverted lower—classic behavior in range conditions.
• BB squeeze/expansion: Bands not in squeeze; volatility normalizing after mid-July breakout. Mean reversion dominant near band extremes.
• Keltner (hourly, qualitative): Price spent the day walking the lower KC after the morning spike; rallies fading at midline—consistent with short-the-rip intraday regime.

VWAPs and intraday positioning

• Today’s session VWAP: Approx 120.5–120.8k early, with price closing the US day below VWAP. VWAP overhead is an “overhang,” often capping bounces in a downtrending intraday tape. Expect first test of VWAP/anchored VWAP from the 02:00 impulsive bar to attract sellers.

Ichimoku (daily and hourly read)

• Daily: Price above cloud; Tenkan (est. ~117.8k) above Kijun (est. ~115.8k). Bullish higher timeframe structure, but a long upper wick (if daily closes here) signals short-term supply dominance. Chikou still supportive.
• Hourly: Price below Tenkan/Kijun after the roll. Cloud ahead likely flat-to-slightly descending; first resistance cluster near 120.0–120.6k into the cloud underside.

Fibonacci and confluence

• Major swing: Jun 22 low 98.3k → Jul 14 high 123.1k.
  • 23.6%: ~117.24k (strong confluence with historical demand). This is my primary downside magnet for the next 24h.
  • 38.2%: ~113.6k (deeper correction, less likely in 24h barring a shock).
• Intraday leg: Today’s 119.2k → 122.3k thrust fully retraced and failed, shifting bias to a measured move toward 117s.

Candlestick/price action signals

• Daily: Potential shooting star/upper shadow near resistance; bearish short-term implication within a broader range.
• Hourly: Series of lower highs/lows post-06:00; no reversal candle cluster yet near lows.

Classical chart patterns

• Range-bound market: 116–123k. Today’s push to the upper boundary and fade resembles a bull trap. Mean reversion suggests probing the range mid/low (117–118k) next.
• Short-term descending channel since 06:00: Channel resistance ~119.9–120.3k on next test; support drifts toward 118.2k then 117.6k.

Volume and OBV read

• Volume spikes: 02:00 had heavy upside volume; late US session also saw large prints on down bars—suggesting distribution into weakness, not capitulation yet. OBV intraday likely rolled over with price; daily OBV trend remains up since late June but flat in the recent two weeks—consistent with consolidation.

Pivot points (reference from Aug 9 session)

• Prior-day classic pivots (from Aug 9 OHLC): P ≈ 116,924; R1 ≈ 117,483; R2 ≈ 118,466; S1 ≈ 115,941; S2 ≈ 115,381. Current price sits just above that R2 region; the earlier extension to 122k was beyond R3 for that day, explaining the strong mean reversion impulse.

Elliott wave (contextual)

• Count idea: Impulse off 98.3k into 123.1k resembles Wave 3; sideways chop since mid-July could be an expanded flat/triangle Wave 4. Today’s spike may have been a B-wave fake-out, with a C-leg targeting 117.2–116.7k before Wave 5 attempts a fresh breakout later. This mapping aligns with the tactical short bias for the next 24h.

Statistical/mean-reversion framing

• Z-score vs 20-D SMA: Price is modestly above the 20-D mean; upper tail test rejected. Odds favor reversion toward the mean (116.7k) with first sticky zone at 117.2–117.8k, which often halts first attempts.

Risk management, scenarios, and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Drift lower to 118.2k, then extension into 117.3k; bounce attempts capped sub-120.3k.
• Bear extension (20%): Quick flush below 117.3k into 116.7k, then sharp rebound toward 118.8–119.2k by end of window.
• Squeeze risk (25%): Strong risk-on open in Asia/Europe pushes to 119.9–120.6k (VWAP/cloud), possibly 121.2k. I expect sellers to fade that area unless a decisive reclaim and hold above 121.2k flips momentum.

Trade thesis and execution plan

• Edge source: Confluence of intraday downtrend, VWAP overhead, rejection at multi-touch 122–123k supply, and magnet support at 117.2–117.8k.
• Tactics: Place a patient limit sell in the 119.9–120.2k pocket (prior breakdown, channel resistance, VWAP proximity). Target the 117.3k confluence. If price instead flushes first to 117.3k, consider taking profits there; re-evaluate for potential countertrend long only if a bullish divergence forms.
• Timeframe alignment: Short-term (hours to 1 day) trade against a still-bullish higher timeframe; hence, be nimble and respect invalidation (a clean reclaim/hold above 121.2k would neutralize the short idea).

24h price path projection

• Likely path: 119.2–120.0k test on any early-session bounce → failure near 120.0–120.6k → slide through 118.6k toward 117.6–117.3k → reactive bounce to ~118.8–119.2k late in window.

Conclusion

• Within a broader uptrend, today’s upper-wick rejection and intraday downtrend skew the next 24h toward additional downside. Best risk-reward is to Sell rallies into 120k with a take-profit into the 117s. Not financial advice; short-term tactical view only.