BTC’s 123k Breakout: Buy the Pullback to 122.2k for a Push Toward 125.7k

Executive summary and 24h path

• Context: BTC has reclaimed and is pressing the prior local peak from 2025-07-14 (~123,091). Current 1h structure shows a clean series of higher highs/lows with rising volume into the New York afternoon, closing hour near the session high (123,003). This is a classic breakout-retest candidate with elevated momentum and expanding volatility.
• Base-case (continuation after a shallow pullback, 60% probability): Early Asia session sees a drift/pullback to the breakout shelf 122.0–122.4k (confluence: intraday structure, pivot cluster), stabilizes above the daily pivot (~121.65k) and resumes higher toward 123.6–124.4k. A strong US follow-through could extend to 125.7k (R2 / 1.272–1.382 Fib extension cluster) within 24h.
• Alt-case (deeper shakeout before resuming, 30%): A liquidity sweep to 120.9–120.3k (yesterday’s intraday lows and S1) tags stops, then buyers defend 120k and push back into the 122s, reattempting 123+ late in the window.
• Bearish failure (10%): A decisive loss of 119.3k (61.8% retrace of the Aug leg) shifts the short-term structure, opening 118.2–117.6k (50% / S2) and delays the breakout. Not the base expectation given current breadth and volume confirmation.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Higher low set on 2025-08-01 (113,320), followed by higher highs into today’s 123k print. Price is above the daily 20/50 SMAs (est. ~117.5k / ~112–114k) and well above the 200 SMA proxy (~100–105k). Structure: bullish.
• 4h inference: Clean channel from 08-01 low; pullbacks limited to mid-channel. Prior supply at 121.5–122.5k converted to demand late session.
• 1h structure (Aug 13): Ladder of HH/HL from 119.3k → 121.7k → 122.8–123.0k with increasing participation in the breakout hours (17:00–20:00 UTC). No material distribution prints yet.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily MAs: Price > 20D > 50D > 100D ≫ 200D (bullish alignment). Slopes positive, indicating trend acceleration post early-August retest.
• 1h EMAs (8/21/55): Bullish stack with widening separation in the last four hours; typical of trend initiation days. The first high-probability dip buy is usually near the 21-EMA (likely 122.1–122.4k soon), deeper pullback risk toward the 55-EMA (~121.2–121.6k) if Asia squeezes liquidity.
• 200-EMA (1h) proxy: Near ~120–121k; momentum structure remains intact above it.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Rising and likely in the 62–68 range, leaving room for continuation to modestly overbought before risk of mean reversion. No current bearish divergence versus July highs (price and RSI both trending up).
• 1h RSI: Elevated (likely 70–75) with a slight potential for micro-divergence on any shallow consolidation. In strong trends, overbought conditions tend to persist while bands expand.
• MACD (daily): Positive and widening; histogram expanding for several sessions suggests improving upside impulse after the early-August reset.
• MACD (1h): Positive; watch for a modest histogram fade on any 122k pullback—healthy if it resets without crossing down.
• Stochastics (1h): Overbought but embedded; expect only short-lived dips unless key supports break.

Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14): Elevated and expanding (approx 3.5–4.2k), consistent with a breakout environment; permits a 1–2k swing intraday without damaging structure.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Price riding the upper band with bands expanding—classic breakout condition. Center band near ~117.5k acts as trend support; upper band projected ~123.5–124.5k.
• Keltner Channels (1h): Price riding/closing outside upper channel in the last hours; mean reversion pullback to mid-channel (~122.2k) is a high-probability entry if trend remains intact.

Volume and participation

• Daily: July 14’s high-volume spike marked the initial 123k probe. After a measured pullback into early August, rising volumes on up-days through Aug 10–13 confirm accumulation.
• Intraday (Aug 13): Increasing volume from 17:00–20:00 UTC during the breakout (peaks >9–10B/h in the feed) validates the push above 122k. No blow-off prints yet.

Support, resistance, and liquidity map

• Key resistance overhead:
  • 123.09k: July 14 swing high—now effectively a breakout trigger.
  • 124.35k: Daily R1 pivot (calculated below) and upper-band neighborhood—first extension target.
  • 125.7k: Daily R2 and 1.272–1.382 Fib extension cluster—stretch target within 24h on strong momentum.
• Key supports below:
  • 122.8–123.0k: Immediate breakout area; first micro-support if momentum persists.
  • 122.0–122.4k: Intraday shelf; likely first buy zone on a dip (confluence with 1h 21-EMA).
  • 121.65k: Daily pivot (P)—high-confidence level for trend continuation if tested and held.
  • 120.95–120.30k: Intraday lows/S1; deeper flush zone within a bullish context.
  • 119.30k: 61.8% retrace of the Aug leg; loss would weaken the immediate bull case.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: 2025-08-01 low 113,320 → 2025-08-13 high ~123,010 (Δ ≈ 9,690):
  • Retracements from high: 61.8% ≈ 119,308 (acted as support Aug 10–11), 50% ≈ 118,165, 38.2% ≈ 117,023.
  • Extensions: 1.272 ≈ 125,330; 1.382 ≈ 126,680; 1.618 ≈ 128,840. Cluster with pivot R2 near 125.7k adds confluence.
• Larger swing: 2025-06-22 low 100,987 → 2025-07-14 high 123,092 (Δ ≈ 22,105):
  • Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 114,655; 50% ≈ 112,039; 61.8% ≈ 109,424. Early-Aug lows (113,320 and 112,527) respected 38–50% zone, validating the higher-timeframe uptrend.

Pivot points (derived from the latest session H/L/C)

• Using H ≈ 123,010; L ≈ 118,947; C ≈ 122,987:
  • Pivot P ≈ 121,648
  • R1 ≈ 124,349
  • R2 ≈ 125,711
  • S1 ≈ 120,286
  • S2 ≈ 117,585 These levels align with observed intraday structure and Fibonacci extensions.

Ichimoku cloud (contextual inference)

• Daily: Price above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun with a positive span A; Kijun baseline around ~117–118k. Bullish regime.
• 1h: Price well above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou span above price—fully bullish. A Tenkan/Kijun pullback toward ~122–122.5k would be textbook continuation.

VWAP and anchored metrics

• Session VWAP (Aug 13) likely below spot after the late-day surge; first VWAP retest could appear around ~121.9–122.3k depending on post-close prints—coincides with our preferred entry zone.
• Anchored VWAP from Aug 1 low would be rising in the mid/high 119s—structural support if volatility expands.

Pattern analysis

• Cup-and-handle variant: July 14 peak (~123k), handle into early Aug (~113–114k), breakout reattempt now underway; measured move suggests medium-term 130–133k, but near-term 124.3–125.7k is the practical 24h target band.
• Channel/Regression: Price hugging the upper channel on 1h; pullbacks to midline historically bought quickly in this cycle.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 100,987 → 123,092
• Wave 2: 123,092 → 113,320 (sharp zigzag)
• Ongoing: Wave 3 of higher degree since Aug 1, with subwave iii breaking prior highs. Typical targets: 1.272–1.618 extensions (125.3–128.8k). Intraday we may be in subwave v of iii, often followed by a shallow iv (dip) then a marginal new high—consistent with our dip-to-122.2k then push to 124–126k plan.

Order flow and liquidity considerations

• Stop clusters likely above 123.1k (prior swing high), creating a vacuum to 123.6–124.0k once breached. Late-session momentum and expanding hourly volume imply resting offers were thinned near 122.8–123.0k.
• Below, liquidity pools around 122.2k and 121.65k should attract price if momentum needs to reload; responsive buyers expected.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Momentum failure signs: A sustained break below 121k followed by a lower high under 121.6k would warn of a transition to range (120.3–122.0k) or deeper test of 119.3k.
• Volatility whipsaw risk in Asia hours; plan entries around well-defined shelves (122.2k) instead of chasing strength into resistance.

Confluence summary leading to the trade plan

• Bullish factors: Multi-timeframe uptrend, MAs/EMAs bullishly aligned, breakout above prior 123k supply, expanding bands and ATR, rising volume on breakout, strong intraday structure, pivot/Fib/extension confluence pointing to 124.3–125.7k.
• Cautionary factors: 1h overbought oscillators; potential need for a liquidity dip to recharge. Nearby resistance just overhead requires a tactical entry.
• Net: Favor buying the dip into 122.2k with targets toward 125.7k within 24h. Alternative momentum add is a break-and-hold above 123.1k, but risk/reward is better on the pullback.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Expected path: Brief pullback to 122.2k ± 0.3k → impulse through 123.1k → 123.8–124.4k → potential extension to 125.7k if US session participation persists tomorrow. Range expectation: 121.6k–125.7k.

Trade parameters (core idea)

• Position: Buy (Long)
• Entry (limit): 122,200
• Target (take profit): 125,700
• Invalidation concept (not executed here but for planning): A close below 120,950 or a clean break of 119,300 would invalidate the immediate momentum thesis and suggest standing aside.

Note: All levels derived from the supplied chart data; no external data used. This is a technical trading plan—manage size and slippage, and adapt if volatility regimes change.