BTC at the 50% Line: Bear-Flag Under 118.2k Points to a Slide Toward 116.7k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish continuation after a key-reversal down day and a 1h bear-flag under 118.2k. Expect a retest of 118.1–118.4k to fade, with room toward 116.7k if 117.5k breaks.
• Plan: Short a pop into 118.15k, target 116.70k within 24h. Invalidation for the thesis is an hourly close back above ~119.2k.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Uptrend from the Aug 1–2 pivot lows (~113.3k/112.5k) into the Aug 13 high/close (123.68k/123.34k). Today (Aug 14) produced a classic key-reversal down: made a higher high (124.21k) versus yesterday then sold off hard to ~118k, now below yesterday’s close. That pattern often invites 1–3 sessions of follow-through lower or chop.
• 4h/1h structure: Sharp impulsive leg down from 124.21k to 117.48k, followed by a shallow consolidation under 118.3k. Price has failed to reclaim even the 23.6% intraday retrace (≈119.07k), signaling weak bounce quality and a likely bear-flag continuation.
• Micro levels: Intraday lower highs around 118.25–118.30k and marginally lower lows from 117.54k to 117.42k suggest supply active above 118.2k and liquidity magnet below 117.5k.

2. Key levels and confluence

• Daily Fib of the swing 112,526.9 (Aug 2 close) → 123,344.1 (Aug 13 close):
  • 38.2%: 119,211.9
  • 50%: 117,935.5 (current price sits almost exactly here)
  • 61.8%: 116,659.1 (major confluence support with Aug 8 close 116,688.7)
• Intraday Fib of Aug 14 high 124,210.6 → low 117,477.8:
  • 23.6%: 119,067.2 (not reclaimed)
  • 38.2%: 120,049.8
  • 50%: 120,844.2
  • 61.8%: 121,638.7 The failure to reclaim 119,067 reinforces a weak bounce and favors another push lower.
• Horizontal S/R clusters:
  • Resistance: 118,150–118,400 (hourly supply, lower-high shelf), 119,200 (daily 38.2% fib), 120,200–120,850 (intraday 38.2–50% retrace supply), 123,300–123,700 (recent top).
  • Support: 117,500 (intraday shelf and liquidity pocket), 116,650–116,700 (61.8% daily fib + prior closes), 115,750 (Jul 31 close and HVN), 114,200–115,100 (Aug 3–6 closes).

3. Moving averages and bands

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~117,070 based on last 20 closes. Price has mean-reverted back to just above the 20SMA after riding the upper band yesterday; this is typical post-band-walk behavior. A brief undercut toward 116.7k would not break the broader uptrend and would still sit above the 50SMA.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Low 111–113k region given June-July price base; well below spot, confirming medium-term uptrend intact.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): After tagging or nearing the upper band on Aug 13, price snapped back toward the mid-band (the 20SMA). When the first bounce off the mid-band fails, a probe toward the lower half of the band is common, supporting a 116.7k test.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-to-high 50s before today; pullback should bring it toward neutral (45–50). No bearish daily divergence preceding the top, but today’s key-reversal and momentum shift suggest a pause or mild pullback is probable.
• 1h RSI(14): Spent time in the low 30s on the drop; the grind under 118.3k with weak bounces shows bear-control despite oversold prints. Oversold can persist in trends; prefer to sell into a feeble bounce rather than chase lows.
• MACD daily: Positive but with a falling histogram after the spike; momentum rolling over from an extended condition.
• MACD 1h: Below signal and zero or curling near zero; no strong bullish cross yet.
• Stochastics 1h: Likely cycling from oversold but capped under resistance; expect bull attempts to fade sub 118.4k while structure remains lower-highs.

5. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price above cloud; medium-term bullish context intact. However, Tenkan likely well above current after the sharp pop; price moving toward Kijun mean could be consistent with a 116.7k test.
• 1h: Price below cloud with a bearish TK cross and a red forward Kumo. Until price reclaims the cloud base near 119–120k, rallies are suspect.

6. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volume: Aug 13 saw a surge in volume on the breakout; today’s selloff proceeded with heavy intraday prints at 19:00–20:00 UTC while price could not reclaim 118.3k, implying distribution.
• Anchored VWAP from today’s high (~124.21k) should sit well above current (roughly 121–122k), leaving sellers in control intraday. From yesterday’s NY session open, AVWAPs also sit above price.
• Volume profile last 3 weeks: Dense activity around 117.5–118.5k and again 115.7–116.9k. Losing 117.5k often slides to the next HVN around 116.7k.

7. Volatility/ATR and expected move

• Daily ATR(14) approx 2.6–3.0k. A 24h move from 118k to 116.7k (≈1.3k) is comfortably within one-half ATR and realistic without extraordinary catalysts.
• Intraday realized range today already ~6.7k high-to-low; after a large impulse, a measured continuation of 1–1.5k lower following a weak bounce is common.

8. Candles and patterns

• Key reversal down at a short-term extreme: Higher high then close well below prior close.
• 1h bear flag: Sideways-to-slightly-up consolidation under 118.3k after a steep drop. Measured move from flag pole implies risk to break 117.5k toward 116.7k.

9. Elliott and harmonics (lightweight)

• Count possibility: Wave 3 into Aug 13, now an ABC corrective wave 4. Common retraces for wave 4 cluster at 38.2–50–61.8 of wave 3; price is hovering at 50% and could complete toward 61.8% near 116.7k before wave 5 attempts.

10. Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Base case 55%: Retest 118.15–118.40k fails, break 117.5k, tag 116.7k, then bounce to close near 117.1–117.6k.
• Alternate 30%: Stronger mean-reversion squeeze to 119.1k (daily 38.2%) or 120.05k (intraday 38.2%), then fade back under 118.5k by end of window.
• Risk case 15%: Momentum reclaims 119.2k on an hourly close, squeeze toward 120.8k–121.6k. This would invalidate the short-term short idea and favor a neutral or long setup on dips.

11. Trade plan and risk framing

• Thesis: Weak bounce quality, sub-23.6% retrace of the intraday dump, bear-flag under 118.3k, and a daily key-reversal suggest a continuation probe lower to the 61.8% daily fib confluence at 116.7k.
• Entry: Preference is a patient sell-the-rip. Optimal short zone 118.1–118.3k. Use a limit to enter around 118.15k.
• Target: 116.70k initial take-profit aligns with daily 61.8% retracement and a prior HVN. Secondary extension, if momentum accelerates, sits near 115.75k, but 24h horizon favors 116.7k.
• Invalidation: Hourly close above 119.2k (daily 38.2% fib reclaimed) negates the immediate continuation and risks a squeeze toward 120.0–120.8k. A prudent stop would live slightly above 119.3–119.5k.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to a 1.1–1.4k adverse excursion risk for a 1.4–1.6k reward, targeting roughly 1:1.2–1:1.4 within 24h given reduced bounce quality.

12. Why not long here

• Although price sits on the 50% daily fib and near the 20SMA, the absence of a constructive reclaim of 119.1k and the intraday failure to even hold 118.3k argues for patience. A long is better once 119.2k is retaken on an hourly close or after a flush into 116.7k with bullish divergence.

Bottom line

• Short the 118.15k retest, looking for 116.70k within 24 hours, unless an hourly close above 119.2k forces an exit and flips the bias to neutral-to-bullish for a move toward 120.0–120.8k.