BTC poised for a relief bounce: Buy the 117k dip, aim for the 119k supply

Timeframes used: Daily (primary), Hourly (execution), Weekly (context)

1. Market structure and trend

• Weekly context: Uptrend intact since June’s 100k base, with successive higher highs culminating in the 124.5k print on Aug 14. Bigger picture momentum still bullish but maturing; rallies increasingly sold into at round numbers (120k, 123–124k).
• Daily structure: Higher-high at 124.46k on Aug 14 followed by a wide-range bearish candle and a continuation day lower on Aug 15. This marks a momentum shift from persistent grind-up to corrective phase. Current 2-day pullback sits above the late-July value area (116–120k), so this is a correction within an uptrend, not a full reversal yet.
• Hourly structure: Since the Aug 14 selloff, intraday price has been carving a descending channel with repeated tests and defenses around 116.94–117.10k. Bounces have been capped at 118.8–119.2k. Developing range: 116.95k support to 118.9–119.2k resistance.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Fibonacci retrace of Aug 1 low (112.72k) to Aug 14 high (124.46k): 38.2% ≈ 120.0k; 50% ≈ 118.1k; 61.8% ≈ 116.2k. Price closed below 50% (118.1k) and is hovering between 50% and 61.8%. A test of the 61.8% (116.2k) is a common path in a first corrective leg.
• Classical pivots (calculated from Aug 14 H/L/C): PP ≈ 120.0k, R1 ≈ 122.8k, S1 ≈ 115.6k. Current price is below PP, above S1: mean-reversion magnet at 120.0k, while S1 aligns with deeper support near 115.6k.
• Visible support/resistance from price memory:
  • 116.9–117.1k: intraday shelf defended multiple times on Aug 15 (hourly wicks, absorption).
  • 116.2k: 61.8% Fib; likely buyers hiding here for a classic golden-pocket reaction.
  • 118.1k: 50% retrace and intraday pivot.
  • 118.8–119.2k: supply zone from repeated hourly failures; top of current micro-range.
  • 120.0k: major round number and 38.2% retrace / daily pivot.

3. Momentum and mean-reversion indicators

• RSI (daily, est.): Fell from ~60s to mid-to-high 40s after the break; not oversold, but in corrective territory. Plenty of room for a relief bounce before any further trend decision.
• RSI (hourly): Prints near 35–40 during 116.9k tests, with marginally higher RSI lows against flat price lows → positive divergence building, a classic precursor to a bounce toward 118.8–119.2k.
• MACD (daily, est.): Bullish phase rolled over; histogram turned negative post-Aug 14. Momentum has shifted bearish on the daily, but the initial impulse is extended enough to favor a 1–2 day mean-reversion pop before the next decision point.
• MACD (hourly): Negative but flattening; potential for a crossover if price can reclaim 118.1k.

4. Trend/volatility bands and averages

• Bollinger Bands (daily, est.): Mid-band ~20SMA ≈ 118.8–119.2k; lower band likely ~115.5–116.0k. Aug 14 expansion widened bands. Current price is below the mid-band and above the lower band → short-term bounce toward the mid-band is statistically favored.
• ATR (daily, est.): Expanded materially after Aug 14; daily ATR ~3.5–4.5k. Expect 2–4k swings intraday. Range-trading edges improve near extremes (116.2–116.9k support; 118.8–120.0k resistance).
• Moving averages (estimates):
  • 20-DMA ≈ 118.8–119.2k (now overhead resistance/mid-band).
  • 50-DMA ≈ 115.5–116.5k (rising) — confluence with 61.8% Fib supports the 116.2–116.5k demand zone.
  • 200-DMA is far below; not in play near-term.

5. Ichimoku perspective (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan likely near 119–120k; Kijun near 118k. Price under Tenkan and probing Kijun area indicates a corrective phase. If 116.2–116.5k (top of potential cloud or Kijun extension) holds, a snapback toward Tenkan (119–120k) is typical.

6. Market profile / volume cues (from intraday feed)

• Notable hourly volumes clustered at 15:00, 17:00, 19:00, and especially 20:00 UTC on Aug 15. The 20:00 hour had high volume and closed higher than it opened, indicating responsive buying near the lows (absorption) around 117.0k. This supports the idea of a short-term base building at 116.9–117.1k.

7. Candlestick diagnostics

• Daily (Aug 14): Wide-range bearish candle from 124.46k to 118.36k — strong momentum shift.
• Daily (Aug 15 so far): Small-bodied day near the prior day’s lows — potential stalling/indecision at support.
• Hourly: Multiple long lower shadows near 116.94–117.05k showing demand absorption.

8. Elliott wave / corrective anatomy (heuristic)

• The surge into 124.5k resembles a terminal push; current decline appears to be an A-wave impulse lower. Typical path: A down → B bounce to 118.8–120.0k → C down probing 116.2k or even 115.6k. We are likely late in A or transitioning to B. Hence, a 24-hour tactical long into resistance has positive expectancy, even if a larger C leg follows later.

9. Probability-weighted near-term scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold 116.9–117.1k, bounce toward 118.8–119.2k. Possible overshoot to 119.8–120.0k if momentum accelerates into low-liquidity hours.
• Bear extension (25%): Brief flush into 116.2–116.5k (61.8% + 50-DMA), then quick reversal back above 117.2k. This still favors dip-buys with tight risk.
• Bear break (10%): Clean loss of 116.2k on expanding volume, trend day to 115.6k S1 and maybe 114.8–115.0k gap-fill zone. Less likely within 24h unless macro news hits.
• Low-vol chop (10%): Ping-pong 117.0–118.2k without decisive break; scalpers’ market.

10. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Tactical long for a relief bounce into the 118.8–119.2k supply and possibly 120.0k pivot. The confluence of 1h RSI divergence, intraday absorption at 117k, daily support above 61.8% (116.2k), and Bollinger mid-band magnet favors a buy-the-dip approach.
• Entry tactics: Use a patient limit near the defended shelf to optimize R:R and account for potential stop-runs.
  • Primary entry: 117,050 (limit buy) — inside the defended 116.9–117.1k pocket.
  • If a liquidity sweep occurs: Be prepared (contingency) to add near 116,300–116,500 only if price quickly reclaims 116.9k; otherwise stand down.
• Targets: First target at 118,950 (below the 118.8–119.2k supply to ensure fills). Extension target (not in core plan) at 119,950–120,000 if momentum is strong.
• Risk management (for context): A logical protective stop sits under 116,200 (61.8% Fib/50-DMA confluence). For a 117,050 entry and 118,950 target, R:R ≈ 1.7–2.0 depending on stop placement. If using a tighter execution stop (e.g., 116,450) once price confirms above 117.3k, R:R improves materially.

11. Triggers and invalidation

• Bullish confirmation: Reclaim and hold above 118,100 (50% retrace/intraday pivot) on 1h closes — increases odds of a run to 118.9–119.2k.
• Early warning of failure: 1h close < 116,900 with rising volume — defer entry and wait for 116.2k reaction.
• Full invalidation of the long idea (near-term): Sustained 1h action below 116,200 with no bid — opens the path to 115.6k S1 and potentially 114.8–115.0k.

12. Bottom line

• The higher-timeframe uptrend is undergoing a standard corrective pullback. Multiple tools (Fibonacci, pivots, Bollinger mid-band magnet, hourly RSI divergence, and intraday absorption) point to a relief bounce toward 118.9–120.0k over the next 24 hours. Tactical long on a dip near 117.0k offers a favorable, clearly defined setup. Manage risk beneath 116.2k.

Note: This is a short-term tactical view for the next 24 hours; it can differ from a multi-day swing outlook, which may see a later retest of 116.2k or even 115.6k after a bounce.