Bitcoin Coils at the 50–61.8% Fib Cradle: Set to Spring Toward 119k

Summary view

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC)
• Current price: $117,719.41 (2025-08-16 20:59 UTC)
• Horizon: next 24 hours
• Bias: moderately bullish (buy-the-dip toward 117.3k–116.7k support; target a reflex move toward 119.2k–120k)

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily, last ~60 sessions): Uptrend intact since late June/early July. Price accelerated from ~112.5k (Aug 1) to ~123.3k (Aug 13), then pulled back sharply Aug 14–15. Current price sits above the broader uptrend base (~112–115k) and near mid-range supports from July.
• Intermediate structure: Swing high 123,344 (Aug 13). Pullback low so far 117,398 (Aug 15 close), with today basing ~117.3–117.9k. Overall, this resembles a standard A-B-C corrective phase within a larger uptrend.
• Intraday (hourly, Aug 16): Very tight balance day between ~117.33k and ~117.99k. Multiple doji-like closes and shallow rotations indicate a volatility contraction (squeeze) after the Aug 14 shock.
• Market profile/Balance: Value is building around 117.7–117.8k (POC region over the past 24–48h). Such compressions tend to resolve with a directional push; location near fib support tilts the odds slightly upward.

2. Key levels (Support/Resistance) and confluence

• Supports:
  • 116,659: 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 (112,527) → Aug 13 (123,344) advance. Major fib support and former pivot shelf.
  • 117,317–117,400: Today’s intraday lows and the 50% retracement (117,935) just overhead; the pocket between 117.3–117.9k is a retracement cradle.
  • 115,800–116,200: Dense reaction zone from late July/early August closes.
• Resistances:
  • 117,935–119,211: 50% (117,935) and 38.2% (119,211) fib retracements of the Aug 1–13 leg; expect supply near 118.7–119.3k.
  • 120,000–120,300: Psychological and recent supply from Aug 12–13.
  • 123,000–124,500: Major supply cap (Aug 13–14 range top) — unlikely within 24h unless an outsized breakout.
• Confluence: Price is compressing directly in the 50–61.8% retracement band with value building; this is often a basing/launch area in uptrends.

3. Momentum/oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~62, derived from recent closes (gains ~13.64k vs losses ~8.45k over 14 periods). Despite the two-day drop, RSI remains above 50, suggesting positive medium-term momentum with near-term reset.
• Hourly RSI: Neutral to slightly bullish divergence (price flat near 117.7k while momentum stabilizes after Aug 14 dip); supports a bounce scenario from balance.
• MACD (daily): Still positive (12EMA > 26EMA) after the August run, but converging since Aug 13; histogram contracting. This indicates pullback within an uptrend rather than trend reversal (unless follow-through selling resumes). A stabilization/turn in price over the next 24h would likely re-widen the spread to the upside.
• Stochastics (hourly): Cycling near midline due to tight range; poised to expand on breakout — direction likely determined by first impulsive hourly candle outside 117.3–118.0k.
• CCI (daily): Pulled back from overbought toward +/−100 region; typically where mean-reversion bounces emerge if trend is intact.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily, est): ~2.3k–3.0k after the Aug 14 expansion (that day’s TR ~7.2k). With current squeeze on the hourly, a 24h move of ~1.5–2.5k is feasible.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price has reverted toward the mid-band (20D SMA ~117.8–118.2k by estimate). After a band expansion Aug 14, tags around the midline favor stabilization and a potential push toward the upper half of the bands (119.5–121k) if buyers show up.
• Keltner Channels (hourly): Price clustering within a narrow channel; squeeze conditions suggest an imminent directional release. With trend context up, bias slightly favors an upside resolution toward 118.8–119.5k.

5. Moving averages and trend filters

• 10D/20D SMAs: Clustered near current price (~117.8–118.2k). Price camping at/just below the 20D is typical of healthy pullbacks in an uptrend.
• 50D SMA (est): Rising, likely in the 112–115k zone, well below price — indicates broader uptrend intact.
• EMA stack (daily): 12EMA still above 26EMA; slope flattening but not decisively rolling over. A modest bounce within 24h would reassert the positive slope.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Volume spikes: Aug 14 sell-off printed very high volume, suggesting a shakeout and transfer of risk, not necessarily a trend failure. Subsequent sessions showed decreasing volume and narrower ranges — classic post-shock balance building.
• OBV (qualitative): Up since early August; paused on Aug 14–15. No persistent distribution signature yet.
• VWAP (recent multi-day): Likely near 118–119k. Price marginally below suggests slight dip discount; reclaiming VWAP often accelerates toward 119k+.

7. Pattern analysis

• Fibonacci structure: Current price sits in the 50–61.8% retracement cradle of the Aug 1–13 impulse. Typical expectation is a reflexive bounce toward the 38.2% line (~119.21k) before the market decides on deeper correction vs trend resumption.
• Micro-structure: Tight hourly equilibrium (117.6–117.9k) with repeat tests of 117.7–117.8k; higher probability of stop-run (down to ~117.3k or even ~116.7k) before a reversal higher (“liquidity sweep then revert”).
• Candles: A series of small-bodied hourly candles (doji/inside bars) reflects indecision. Given the higher timeframe up-bias, a bullish transition (close above ~117.95–118.05k with expansion) would likely invite momentum buys.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price likely above cloud; conversion (Tenkan) near ~118.5k and base (Kijun) ~116.5k. The current price is between Tenkan and Kijun — classic mean reversion zone. A reclaim of Tenkan (~118.5k) would target 119.5–120k next.

9. Quantified scenarios (24h)

• Bullish resolution (base case ~60%): Liquidity sweep into 117.3k–116.9k, then reversal to 118.7–119.3k; stretch goal 120.0k if momentum funds chase a breakout above 119.3k.
• Bearish continuation (alt case ~40%): Failure to reclaim 118.0k leading to a drift toward 116.7k (61.8% fib) and possibly 116.2k; deeper extension to 115.8k would require heavy sell impulse, less likely given the present compression and earlier volume climax.

10. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Buy the dip into the 117.3k–116.9k liquidity pocket with targets into the 119.2k VWAP/fib cluster. The risk-reward is favorable inside the 50–61.8% fib cradle, given the broader uptrend and hourly squeeze.
• Entry: Use a limit near 117,300 (slightly below today’s intraday lows, aiming to get filled on a final stop-run). If price runs without dipping, a momentum add could be considered on strong hourly close above 118,000 with improving breadth — but the core plan is the dip-buy.
• Take-profit (24h): First objective 119,200 (38.2% fib and recent supply), which is within 1.5–2x the current daily compressed range and well inside ATR feasibility.
• Risk context (not part of the schema but essential): A prudent protective stop would sit below 116,600 (61.8% fib) to avoid getting trapped in a C-leg extension; that produces a roughly 700–900 point risk to a ~1,900 point target (R ~2.1–2.7 depending on fill). Manage dynamically if price reclaims 118.5k quickly.

11. Why not short here?

• Shorting into the 50–61.8% fib zone in an uptrend with a volatility squeeze is statistically disadvantageous unless a decisive breakdown occurs (hourly close <116.6k with volume). Immediate overhead resistance is real, but the tape suggests a reflexive bid is more likely before any larger decision.

12. Timing and triggers

• Watch for: (a) Quick probe into 117.3k–117.1k with immediate absorption (telltale long lower wicks, uptick in buy volume); (b) Reclaim of 118.0k on expanding hourly volume; (c) Momentum continuation into 118.7–119.2k. Failure triggers: repeated rejections at 117.95–118.05k without dip-fill, or heavy sell bars pressing sub-117.2k with no bounce — in the latter case, delay entry toward 116.7k.

Conclusion

• With price balanced at retracement support, medium-term uptrend intact, oscillators reset but not broken, and intraday volatility compressed, odds modestly favor a bounce toward 119.2k over the next 24 hours. The optimal plan is a patient dip-buy around 117.3k with a take-profit into the 119.2k supply band. This aligns with fib retracements, VWAP magnetism, and the typical resolution of squeezes in the direction of the larger trend.

Probability-weighted expectation (24h)

• Up-move toward 118.9k–119.5k: ~60%
• Down-move toward 116.6k–116.2k: ~40%
• Black swan outsized move (>3.5k): <10% (requires new catalyst)

Note: Intraday execution can materially improve outcomes; the plan assumes a single-entry, single-exit framework as requested.