Bitcoin poised for a golden-pocket rebound: targeting a 24h mean-reversion to 118.6k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (counter-trend bounce) from a strong support cluster around 115.0–116.5k toward 117.8–118.8k.
• Rationale: Confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 2–Aug 13 leg, daily Kijun/test area, classic pivot S2 overshoot with VWAP recapture intraday, and developing bullish momentum on the hourly while daily trend remains broadly up above the 50D trend.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 116.25k; target mean-reversion toward 118.6k within 24h.

Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher-timeframe context (multi-week): From the June 22 swing low (~98.3k) to Aug 13 peak (~123.68k), BTC advanced ~26%. The pullback since Aug 13 has retraced ~5.9%, typical of a healthy correction within an uptrend.
• Daily structure (past month): After topping at 123.68k on Aug 13, price sold off sharply on Aug 14 (very high volume), then formed a 3–4 day sideways-to-down consolidation between ~117–120k. Current price 116,417 sits at the lower edge of this range and just under a dense support band (115.0–116.8k) seen repeatedly (Aug 1–6, Aug 8–11 touches).
• Intraday (hourly, Aug 18): Session put in a low near 114,731 at 09:00, then carved higher lows and reclaimed 116k with repeated tests of 116.1–116.6k and a local high at 116.86k (17:00). The last hours show compression around 116.3–116.6k on elevated volume at 20:00, suggesting absorption rather than continuation lower.

Support and resistance (levels with confluence)

• Immediate support: 116.8k (61.8% fib of 112,526→123,682 leg projects ~116,789), 116.1–116.4k (intraday acceptance and VWAP zone), 115.7–115.1k (dense daily demand and stop cluster; Aug 4/6/9/11 interactions), 114.9k (78.6% fib and liquidity sweep area).
• Overhead resistance: 116.85–117.05k (intraday supply + classic S1/P retests), 117.45–117.80k (range mid/pivot from Aug 17 and recent closes), 118.36k (Aug 14 close), 118.75–119.30k (value area high cluster), 120.17–120.45k (psychological and prior inflection).

Indicators and techniques

1. Moving averages

• 10D SMA ≈ 118.5k (estimate from last 10 closes). Price at 116.4k is below 10D but above the 50D trend proxy (~110–112k), indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend.
• Mean-reversion probability favors a snapback toward the 10D SMA (118.5k) if support holds.

2. RSI (14)

• Daily RSI likely mid-to-high 40s after the Aug 14 drop—neutral to slightly bearish but far from oversold. Plenty of room to bounce without overextension.
• Hourly RSI showed a bullish divergence: price made a lower low at 09:00 while momentum stabilized; subsequent higher lows into the US session align with an RSI turn up—constructive for a 24h bounce.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD still positive but cooling since Aug 13; histogram contracting—risk of a bear cross in coming days if no bounce, but not yet decisive.
• Hourly MACD histogram has turned up from morning lows, consistent with a developing intraday bullish phase.

4. Stochastic/CCI/MFI

• Hourly stoch crossing up from oversold territory; CCI recovering from negative extremes; MFI stable with rising prints on up-swings—signs of buyer re-engagement at support.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Center band ~118k, lower band estimated ~113–114k. Price near but above the lower band after a strong expansion on Aug 14; tendency leans to mean reversion into the middle band (118k) over 24h absent a fresh shock.
• Hourly: Price oscillating around the middle band with narrowing bands—volatility compression often precedes a directional push; with momentum tilting up and higher-timeframe support below, directional bias is up.

6. ATR / Volatility

• Daily ATR(14) roughly 3.0–3.5k. A move from 116.3k to 118.6k (≈2.3k) fits easily within a 24h ATR, while a downside sweep to ~114.9k (≈1.5k) is also plausible intra-range.

7. Ichimoku Cloud (daily)

• Price remains above the cloud. The Kijun-sen is likely near 116–117k; today’s action resembles a textbook Kijun retest. Holding above/around Kijun often precedes continuation toward the Tenkan/price equilibrium (~118k).

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing Aug 2 low (112,526) → Aug 13 high (123,682): 61.8% retracement ≈ 116,789; 78.6% ≈ 114,918. Current 116,417 sits in the golden pocket-to-78.6% zone—a high-probability reaction area. First magnet on a bounce is the 38.2–50% zone from the recent micro downswing, aligning with 117.8–118.6k.
• AB=CD symmetry: A (Aug 13→14) ≈ -4.98k. The subsequent drop plus chop projects a completion near 115.2–116.2k depending on pivot choice—today’s lows and basing are consistent with pattern completion.

9. Market profile / VWAP (intraday)

• Today’s session VWAP estimated ~115.9–116.2k; current price slightly above, indicating intraday buyers retook control. Value shifted higher through the day, a constructive sign.

10. Pivot points (classic, derived from Aug 17 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 117.78k; S1 ≈ 116.96k; S2 ≈ 116.46k; R1 ≈ 118.27k. Price dipped under S2 intraday and re-accepted above it, often leading to mean reversion toward S1/P in the next session.

11. Candlestick/price patterns

• Aug 14: wide-range bearish candle on high volume—kickoff of the pullback. Since then, smaller real bodies and long lower wicks around 115–116k show demand surfacing on dips.
• Intraday today: compression (inside-type hours) after a base, often preludes a directional expansion; with support below, the higher-probability expansion is up toward 117.8–118.6k.

12. ADX/trend quality

• ADX on daily likely easing from the strong July trend, indicating consolidation/corrective phase rather than a fresh impulse down. That favors range trades: buy support, sell resistance.

13. Heikin-Ashi (conceptual)

• Recent HA candles would show shrinking body and lower wick presence on daily—consistent with loss of bearish momentum and potential transition to a pause/bounce.

14. Order flow/liquidity cues

• Repeated defenses of 115.0–115.3k suggest resting bids; a known liquidity pocket around 114.9k (78.6% fib) is attractive for stop runs—risk of a brief sweep before a bounce remains. Above 117.4–117.8k, thin air up to 118.3–118.6k could allow a swift pop if momentum catches.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 116.0–116.5k, rotate up to 117.8–118.6k, potentially tagging 118.3k (R1/Aug 14 close) and stalling beneath 118.8–119.0k.
• Pullback/sweep (≈25%): Quick liquidity run to 115.0–114.9k, fast reclaim of 116k, then same mean-reversion path to 117.8k.
• Bear continuation (≈15%): Sustained acceptance below 114.9k opens 113.3–113.8k (lower BB/early-Aug VA low). This would likely require a fresh catalyst.

Trade plan and risk framework

• Thesis: Mean-reversion long within a broader uptrend after a 61.8% retrace into multi-touch support, with intraday momentum turning up and VWAP reclaimed.
• Entry: Prefer a limit buy on minor dips around 116.25k to improve R:R vs the 114.9k invalidation zone.
• Target: 118.6k (just under stacked resistance 118.75–119.30k and the 10D SMA ≈118.5k) within 24 hours.
• Risk (for reference, not an order): Invalidation below 114.9k (78.6% fib and liquidity shelf). A prudent stop would sit 114.8–114.9k. This yields approx R:R ~1.7 if targeting 118.6k.

Prediction summary

• Expect BTC to bounce toward 117.8–118.6k over the next 24 hours, provided 115.9–116.1k holds on a closing basis. Upside extension to ~119.0–119.3k is possible if momentum accelerates, but base plan realizes profits below that cluster.

Note: This analysis is for informational/educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always size positions appropriately and consider using stop-loss orders in volatile markets like crypto.