BTC inside the cloud: Fade the relief rally into 115.5k — targeting a retest of 112.9k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Sell-the-rally. Short-term trend turned down on the daily; intraday bounce is pressing into a dense confluence of resistance between 115.3k–116.5k.
• Base path (next 24h): Early pullback to ~113.7k (intraday VWAP/MA), squeeze into 115.2k–115.6k, then rejection back toward 113.0k–112.9k. Probability weighting: 55% sell-off from resistance, 30% continuation squeeze to ~116.9k, 15% downside overshoot to 111.5k (S1 cluster) on risk-off headline.
• Trade plan: Short into 115.45k (Fib 23.6% + Pivot R1 + Ichimoku Span A confluence), target 112.90k. Invalidation above ~116.9k (Fib 38.2%).

Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily trend: After the Jul 10 breakout to 116–123k, price carved a lower-high/lower-low sequence from the Aug 13 peak (123.68k) into the Aug 19 low (112.73k). Current price 114.37k remains below the 20-day SMA (~116.54k), confirming near-term downside bias while the broader uptrend (vs June) is intact.
• Intraday (hourly): Today printed a series of higher highs/lows from ~112.6k to ~114.33–114.37k, with heavier buy volume late session. This is a constructive intraday channel but, in context, resembles a bear-flag/relief rally approaching layered resistance.
• Market structure: Short-term bearish (lower-highs since Aug 13 and fresh swing-low on Aug 19). Bulls must reclaim 115.5k–116.5k to neutralize; otherwise rallies likely fade.

Key levels (supports/resistances)

• Immediate supports: 113.70k (intraday VWAP/mean), 113.00k–112.80k (Aug 19 close/round number), 112.50k (Aug 3/2 lows neighborhood), 111.94k–112.00k, 111.45k (Classic Pivot S1), 110.56k (Jun 9 high turned support).
• Overhead resistances: 114.90k–115.60k (cluster), 116.54k (20SMA), 116.92k (Fib 38.2% retrace), 117.50k, 118.21k (Fib 50%), 119.50k (Fib 61.8%), 120.17k–120.30k, 123.34k–123.68k (supply).

Candles and intraday tape

• Aug 19: Wide bearish candle (H 116.76k, L 112.73k, C 112.83k) near the low—no reversal signature.
• Today: Intraday grind up to the highs into the close, but still below key resistance and with oscillators approaching overbought on 1h—ripe for fade attempts near 115.3k–115.6k.

Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day SMA ≈ 116.54k: Price below—short-term downtrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 113–115k: Price near/just above; medium-term trend still constructive, but slope likely flattening after the recent pullback.
• 8/21 EMA cross (daily, qualitative): The 8EMA has turned down and is threatening/crossing below the 21EMA after the Aug 13–19 slide—bearish short-term signal favoring sell-the-rip.
• Rate-of-change: 5D ROC from Aug 13 peak to now remains negative; 20D ROC mildly positive—confirms near-term down vs medium-term neutrality.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (qualitative): Mid-40s to low-50s after the drop and modest bounce—below the bull range center, leaving room for a push lower if rallies fail.
• RSI(14) 1h: Likely high-50s/60s and nearing overbought after an intraday trend day—supports mean-reversion lower before any further squeeze.
• MACD daily: Bearish crossover post-Aug 14 selloff; histogram likely negative but contracting on today’s bounce—typical of counter-trend rallies within a down swing.
• Stochastic 1h: Overbought/rolling—consistent with fade setup into resistance.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 2.5–2.8k: Room for a 2–3k swing within 24h. A move from 115.5k to 112.9k sits within a 1x ATR day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~ 116.5k overhead; lower band likely ~112–113k. Being below the mid-band favors mean reversion up to the mid only if resistance breaks; otherwise price often oscillates between lower band and mid-band—consistent with selling 115.3k–116.5k.

Volume, VWAP, and OBV

• Daily volumes: Surge on Aug 14 (104B) and Aug 19 (71.7B) on down candles—distribution on weakness; today’s bounce doesn’t yet eclipse prior down-volume.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Around 113.8–114.0k. Current price slightly above—mildly stretched; pullbacks to VWAP are likely.
• OBV (qualitative): Down since Aug 13 on heavy red days; today’s recovery hasn’t reversed the OBV downslope—favors rallies being sold.

Ichimoku (daily; approximations using the provided data)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint) ≈ 118.6k (mid of recent 9-session high/low). Price below Tenkan—bearish short-term.
• Kijun-sen (26) ≈ 112.3k. Price above Kijun—support sits just below 113k.
• Cloud: Span A ≈ (Tenkan + Kijun)/2 ≈ 115.45k; Span B (52 midpoint) ≈ 111.0k. Price is inside/near the lower half of the cloud. The 115.3k–115.6k zone lines up with Span A (dynamic resistance). Strong confluence with Fib and pivots = attractive short entry zone.

Fibonacci mapping (Aug 13 high 123.68k to Aug 19 low 112.73k)

• 23.6%: 115.32k
• 38.2%: 116.92k
• 50%: 118.21k
• 61.8%: 119.50k Current price is below 23.6% retrace. Relief rallies often at least test 23.6% and sometimes 38.2%; thus 115.3k–116.9k is the two-tier sell zone, with the stronger response expected at the first touch of ~115.45k given added confluence.

Pivot points (Classic, from Aug 19 H/L/C)

• Pivot (P): ~114.11k
• R1: ~115.49k
• R2: ~118.14k
• S1: ~111.45k Price reclaimed P and is approaching R1 (115.49k) which coincides with Fib 23.6% (115.32k) and Ichimoku Span A (~115.45k). This triangulates a high-quality resistance band.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag setup (intraday): Rising channel from ~112.4k to ~114.3–114.4k against the prevailing daily downswing. As price nears 115.3k–115.6k, probabilities favor rejection unless momentum/volume meaningfully expand.
• Mean reversion vs momentum: Below the 20SMA/mid-BB with a negative MACD daily suggests the dominant factor is mean reversion down from resistance rather than momentum continuation up.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Early test/squeeze into 115.3k–115.6k stalls; fade sends price back to 113.0k–112.9k by end of window. That aligns with ATR and with the Kijun zone just below.
• Bull case (≈30%): Sustained bid through 115.6k forces stops; extension toward 116.9k (Fib 38.2%/20SMA vicinity). Even then, 116.9k is likely a harder ceiling on first test; risk-reward for fresh longs remains poor below 117k–117.5k.
• Bear extension (≈15%): A swift rejection without tagging 115.3k drops price through 112.8k toward 111.5k (S1) on a volatility burst. This would likely require an adverse macro headline or broad risk-off.

Confluence map (why 115.45k is the sell zone)

• Fib 23.6%: 115.32k
• Pivot R1: 115.49k
• Ichimoku Span A: ~115.45k
• Proximity to the 20SMA/mid-BB above (~116.5k) provides a secondary ceiling if the first layer breaks. This stack of independent tools increases the probability of a downside reaction.

Risk management and execution pointers

• Entry: Staggered limit shorts 115.30k–115.55k; core level 115.48k. If aggressive, partial probe at 114.90k with add near 115.4k.
• Invalidation: Hourly close >116.9k or daily push/hold above 117.0k invalidates the immediate fade and opens a path toward 118.2k–119.5k.
• Take-profit: First scale 113.70k (VWAP/mean); core TP 112.90k (above Kijun/previous close). Optional runner to 111.5k (S1) if momentum accelerates.
• Time-of-day: Initial Asia session often mean-reverts toward VWAP; London/NY can perform the squeeze-and-fade into R1—be patient for entry confirmation if momentum spikes.

Indicators roll-up and their directional take

• Trend (MA/structure): Bearish short-term; neutral to mildly bullish medium-term. Implication: Sell rallies while below 116.5k–117k.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): 1h overbought, daily weak—favors downside from resistance. Implication: Fading strength preferred.
• Volatility (ATR/Bands): Plenty of room for a 2–3k move; bands suggest rallies below the mid-band are corrective. Implication: Target 112.9k achievable.
• Volume/Flow (OBV/VWAP): Distribution on down days, bounce on lighter relative volume; current price slightly above VWAP. Implication: Reversion lower likely unless volume expands through resistance.
• Ichimoku: Below Tenkan, above Kijun, inside cloud; Span A above at 115.45k. Implication: Rallies into the lower cloud boundary often reject.
• Fibonacci/Pivots: Strong alignment at 115.3k–115.5k. Implication: High-probability reaction zone.

24-hour price projection

• Path: 114.0k–113.7k pullback → 115.3k–115.6k test → failure → 113.0k–112.9k by end of window. Alternate squeeze caps near 116.9k.

Bottom line

• The highest-confluence play is to Sell (short) the relief rally into 115.45k with a target back to 112.90k within the next 24 hours. The invalidation sits above 116.9k, where the short-term picture flips toward a deeper retracement to 118.2k–119.5k.

Note: This is a technical view of the provided chart data and not financial advice. Always size positions prudently and respect invalidation levels.