Sell the Bounce: BTC’s Relief Rally Likely Fades into 111k-110k Supports Within 24 Hours

Technical outlook for BTC over the next 24 hours (as of 2025-08-21 21:00 UTC)

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: BTC topped mid-August near 124.5k and has since made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The Aug-14 drawdown broke the mid-117s support shelf and price has cascaded into the 112–114k zone. This is classic post-distribution markdown behavior with bounces sold.
• 4H/1H structure: Today’s intraday flow shows a persistent series of lower highs from ~114.7k to ~112.7k, with marginally lower lows (today’s low ~112.0k). The final two hourly candles show a small relief bounce (20:00 UTC close 112.73k), but still below intraday resistance bands, suggesting a likely “rally into supply” before another push down.
• Range context: After July’s acceptance in 117–120k, price has rotated back to the prior acceptance area 112–115k (early August). Acceptance below ~113.8–114.3k turns that former value area into overhead resistance.

2. Key levels (supports/resistances/liquidity)

• Immediate resistance: 112.9–113.3k (hourly supply and VWAP-adjacent intraday pivot), then 113.9–114.3k (yesterday’s range high cluster), and 114.6–115.0k (daily pivot + prior breakdown shelf).
• Immediate supports: 112.0–112.2k (today’s low/round-number shelf), 111.4–111.6k (thin-volume pocket and stop-liquidity), 110.2–110.6k (June/early July value ledge), then 109.2k and the 108.3k Fibonacci “golden pocket” from the larger June–Aug swing.
• Liquidity map: Clear resting liquidity likely sits just below 112.0k (equal-low zone tapped at 19:00 UTC), and above 113.9–114.3k (failed break zone). Expect mean-reversion probe to ~112.9–113.2k to harvest late shorts, then potential continuation lower.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 116.5k: Price is ~3.9k below, indicating short-term downside momentum and positioning beneath the mid-term mean.
• 50-day SMA zone ~112–114k: Price is wobbling around this longer midline; losing the 50SMA area typically invites tests into deeper supports in a trending market.
• EMA stack: Fast EMAs (8/21) have been below the 20SMA since Aug-15 and are fanned bearishly. Any intraday bounce into the 8/21EMA cluster near 113.2–113.9k is likely sold on first touch.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ~40: Bearish regime (below 50), not deeply oversold. This favors sell-the-rip over knife-catching.
• Hourly RSI: Lifted from sub-40 to low-40s on the recent uptick; no overbought yet, leaving room for a brief push to resistance before rolling.
• Stochastic (conceptual): On 1H likely rebounding from oversold; on daily, trending lower—typical of bear-control phases where oscillators stay subdued.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below signal with negative histogram since mid-August—bearish momentum intact. No clear daily bullish cross setup yet.
• 1H MACD: Histogram ticking up; early-stage intraday bounce consistent with a countertrend rally into resistance.

6. Volatility gauges

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 3.0–3.5k: Implies a realistic 24h move of ~±2–3k from current price, keeping 110–115k well within reach.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline near 116.5k; price residing in the lower quartile of the band. Not an extreme band pierce, but weak and susceptible to trend continuation after small bounces.
• Keltner Channels: Price has been hugging/breaching the lower envelope intraday—typical of controlled downtrends.

7. Ichimoku Cloud (daily read)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud above. Bearish configuration. Kijun equilibrium likely ~117k; distance to Kijun allows rallies but signals trend control remains with sellers until sustained closes back above ~117k.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• June 22 swing low (~98.3k) to Aug 14 high (~124.46k):
  • 38.2% ≈ 114.46k (now lost),
  • 50% ≈ 111.37k,
  • 61.8% ≈ 108.29k.
• Trading below the 38.2% retrace and orbiting the 50% suggests sellers in control with risk of probing 111.4k (50%) in the next leg; golden pocket 108.3k is a larger-timeframe magnet if weakness persists beyond 24h.

9. Candlesticks and microstructure

• Daily prints since Aug-14 show decisive selling with only modest reaction days; yesterday’s bounce closed ~114.28k but failed to reclaim the 114.5–115k breakdown shelf. Today’s intraday action produced a lower low with a small recovery—textbook setup for a lower-high rally then continuation lower.
• Intraday 1H bars: Lower wicks around 112.0k signal responsive buyers, but the lack of follow-through beyond 112.9–113.2k so far keeps control with sellers.

10. Volume and participation

• Recent days show elevated volume on down moves (Aug 11–14, 18–19) and moderate on bounces—distributional. Today’s hours with heavier prints occurred on pushes down to 112s, suggesting real sell pressure as liquidity thins.
• Volume-by-price (conceptual): Prominent node around 117–118k above; lighter participation 114–115k; a smaller node ~112–113k (current). Losing 112.5–112.0k shifts price into a lower-volume corridor toward 110–111k quickly.

11. Statistical and mean-reversion read

• Z-score vs 20D mean: about -1.3 to -1.5 sigma depending on band calc—mildly stretched but not extreme. In a trending market, -1 to -2 sigma prints often produce shallow bounces rather than full mean reversion.

12. Pattern and strategy synthesis

• Base case (55–60% probability): Intraday relief rally into 112.9–113.3k (potential extension 113.9–114.1k if momentum pockets fill), then rollover targeting 111.4–111.6k within 24h. This aligns with: bearish daily MACD/RSI regime, structure of lower highs, positioning below 20SMA and Ichimoku lines, and ATR capacity.
• Alternative (30–35%): Stronger squeeze to 114.5–115.0k if 113.3k gives way on impulse and shorts are crowded; still a sell zone given the overhead supply and broken 38.2% fib.
• Low-probability (10–15%): Sudden reclaim >115.0k with high momentum/volume that flips short-term bias to neutral-bullish; would invalidate the immediate short idea.

13. Trading plan (execution and risk thinking)

• Bias: Sell the bounce (trend-following with tactical timing).
• Optimal entry: Use a limit or patient trigger into 112.9k +/- 0.2k (inside hourly supply), with allowance to scale up to 113.9k if a deeper squeeze occurs. The 112.9–113.3k band aligns with intraday resistance and EMA clusters.
• Target: 110.8k (take-profit) aligns with ATR reach and sits above the 110.2–110.6k ledge, capturing the meat of a likely 24h drive while front-running major bids.
• Risk framing (informational): A logical protective line for shorts would sit above 114.6–115.0k (breakdown shelf). Not part of the requested output, but critical for execution discipline.

14. 24-hour price path expectation

• Likely path: Early bounce to 112.9–113.3k, possible wick to 113.9k, followed by renewed selling toward 111.5k with spikes into 110.8–111.2k. Expected 24h range: 110.8k–113.9k, skewed to the downside.

Conclusion: Trend, momentum, and structure all lean bearish. Oscillators permit a bounce but are not sufficiently oversold to compel a strong reversal. Strategy is to sell into strength. Targeting 110.8k within 24 hours is consistent with ATR and the Fibonacci 50% neighborhood just below, while respecting the chance of a brief squeeze into layered resistance before continuation.