BTC’s Bullish Outside Day: Wyckoff Spring Targets 118.9k in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Signal: Short-term bullish reversal with a bullish outside day and follow-through buying above session VWAPs. Expect continuation higher over the next 24 hours into 117.5–118.9k, with 118.9k as the primary magnet (61.8% retrace of the Aug 13 high → Aug 22 low).
• Bias (24h): Buy dips. Momentum improving from deeply oversold, breadth of the rebound is strong, and volume confirms demand.
• Key levels: Support 116.1k (38.2% retrace), 115.8k (intraday pivot), 114.8k (prior daily resistance/now support), 113.5k (gap area), 111.68k (session low). Resistance 117.17k/117.37k (intraday highs), 117.51k (50% retrace), 118.37k, 118.88–119.12k (61.8% retrace + prior supply), 120.17k (MT swing).

Context and multi-timeframe structure

• Weekly/daily trend: Medium-term uptrend from June’s 100–110k base into the Aug 13 swing high at 123.34k. The last 7–9 sessions formed a corrective downswing to 111.68k today. Today’s outside reversal suggests the correction is maturing and transitioning to a retracement leg higher.
• Market structure (daily): Lower highs (123.34 → 120.17 → 119.00 area) and lower lows into 111.68 define a short-term downtrend within a larger uptrend. Today’s session broke yesterday’s high and low (bullish outside day), often preceding 1–3 sessions of upside follow-through.
• Intraday (hourly): Strong impulsive leg from 113.46k at 14:00 UTC to 117.37k by 18:00 UTC, then orderly consolidation between 116.6–117.1k. The pullbacks have been shallow, a hallmark of demand dominance.

Volume and order flow

• Today’s aggregate volume is heavy relative to the prior two sessions, and the largest on the rally legs (14:00–18:00 UTC). High volume on up-bars after a down leg is characteristic of a Wyckoff spring and sign of absorption of supply.
• The 14:00 UTC breakout candle from 113.46k to 116.06k carried the session’s largest volume burst, indicating initiative buying and a regime shift in control from sellers to buyers.

Key technical tools and signals

1. Fibonacci retracements (Aug 13 high 123,344 → Aug 22 low 111,679)

• 38.2%: 116,135 (tagged/held as support; ideal dip-buy zone)
• 50%: 117,511 (first objective)
• 61.8%: 118,883 (main magnet/target)
• 78.6%: 120,491 (stretch; unlikely in 24h without fresh catalyst) Interpretation: With 38.2% reclaimed, probabilities favor extension to 50%/61.8% in the next 24 hours absent a risk-off shock.

2. Moving averages (approximations on daily)

• 20-D SMA ≈ 117.6k: just above current price; often acts as first resistance during bear rallies; reclaim would open path to 118.9k.
• 50-D SMA ≈ 114.8k: price rebounded well above; bullish for continuation of bounce.
• 100-D SMA ≈ 110.5–112k: far below; higher-timeframe trend still constructive. Interpretation: Price is wedged between the 50-D support and 20-D resistance; momentum suggests a test and potential reclaim of the 20-D within 24h.

3. RSI (14-day)

• RSI likely recovered from mid-40s to ~50 with today’s thrust; bullish momentum inflection from oversold. Intraday RSI pushed into 60s and cooled in consolidation, consistent with a trend day up.
• Bullish momentum divergence probable: today’s lower low in price vs earlier week with less downside momentum into the low.

4. MACD (daily)

• MACD line below signal (post-Aug 13 correction), but histogram has been contracting and likely flipped toward zero today on strong close. Early turn-up suggests a 2–4 day bullish window.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Price bounced off/near lower band on Aug 21/22 and is advancing toward the mid-band (20-SMA ~117.6k). Typical mean-reversion path implies a test of mid-band, with odds to overshoot to upper half of the bands near 118.8–119.5k.

6. ADX/DMI

• ADX modest (~20–22). -DI dominance is fading; +DI crossing up on intraday bases. Trend strength is restarting from low levels—conducive to a 1–2 day push.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan-sen ≈ 117.2k; Kijun-sen ≈ 118.7k. Price has reclaimed/approached Tenkan on the session and is below Kijun. First target is Tenkan hold; second is Kijun tap (~118.7k), aligning with Fib 61.8%.
• Cloud likely below/flat to slightly supportive given the broader uptrend; no bearish cloud twist imminent.

8. VWAPs

• Session VWAP (today) estimated ~116.0–116.2k; price is holding above—bullish intraday control.
• Month-to-date VWAP around ~116.5k; price reclaimed it and is consolidating above. Sustained trade above MTD VWAP often draws price toward prior high-volume nodes at 118–119k.

9. Market profile/high-volume nodes (qualitative)

• Acceptance building 116.6–117.0k in the closing hours; low-volume pocket above into 117.5k suggests a quick test higher is probable. Next heavy supply zone sits 118.6–119.2k.

10. Candlestick/price action

• Bullish outside day: today’s range eclipsed yesterday’s high and low, closing near highs—statistically favors upside follow-through the next session.
• Intraday bull flag forming between 116.6–117.1k after the impulse leg; measured move projects to ~118.7–118.9k.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott perspective

• Wyckoff: Spring below local support (111.99–112.3k) and immediate reclaim sets Phase D markup into resistance tests (117.5 → 118.9k).
• Elliott (simplified): Completed 5-wave decline from 123.34k into 111.68k; current advance is wave A of an A-B-C corrective rally with typical A reaching the 0.5–0.618 retrace.

12. Volatility/ATR

• 14-day ATR approximates 2.6–3.2k. From 116.9k, a one-ATR push targets 119.5k topside; downside one-ATR retest implies 114k. Given momentum shift, skew favors the topside.

Confluence and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Dip to 116.1–116.5k finds buyers; extension to 117.5k (50% retrace) and a probe into 118.6–118.9k (61.8% + Kijun/supply). Close or stall near 118.5–119.0k.
• Neutral (30%): Range 116.0–117.5k (acceptance under 20-D SMA), then push higher in the following session.
• Bear risk (10%): Failure to hold 116.1k leads to 115.3–114.8k retest; only a decisive close below 114.8k would negate the bullish reversal and re-open 113.5k/111.7k.

Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation of the long thesis for the next 24 hours is a decisive break and hourly acceptance below 116.1k (Fib 38.2%) and especially below 114.8k (50-D/structural pivot). Those are key reference stops for tactical positioning.

Trade plan (24h)

• Strategy: Buy the dip into 116.1–116.5k, targeting 118.9k. If no dip, a momentum continuation through 117.2–117.5k can also reach 118.6–118.9k, but with worse R:R.
• Rationale: Confluence of bullish outside day, reclaimed VWAPs, Fib progression, and improving momentum suggests a high-probability push into the 50–61.8% retracement band.

Prediction (24h)

• Expected path: Consolidate 116.6–117.1k → quick test 117.5k → extension 118.6–118.9k. Probability of a wick toward 119.1–119.3k if momentum persists.