BTC hits a 116.8k ceiling: setting up a weekend fade toward 114k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-rangebound. Expect a fade from 116.0–116.8k resistance back into 114.2–115.0k support, with a possible downside probe toward 113.3k if momentum picks up.
• Optimal trade idea: Sell a bounce into ~116.0k (limit), aiming for 114.2k. Strong confluence of resistance overhead (Fib 38.2%/prior supply/daily pivot/VWAP cluster) versus layered supports below.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: From early June consolidation around 105–110k, BTC impulsed into mid-July highs (peak daily high 123.1–123.7k on Jul 14/Aug 13), then transitioned into a corrective phase (late July to Aug 19 low ~112.83k). The Aug 22 session printed a strong rebound close (116.87k) on elevated volume; today’s session (Aug 23 intraday) shows digestion/slight giveback, closing near 115.29k.
• 1H structure (Aug 22–23): Post-bounce drift lower. Intraday low 114.61k (14:00 UTC) followed by a tepid recovery to ~115.26k into the hour close. Price has carved a descending channel/flag: initial drop from ~116.99k to ~114.61k, then a choppy upward grind that failed to reclaim 116k.
• Key takeaway: Lower timeframes lean corrective/sideways with a slight bearish skew beneath 116.6–116.9k. Daily remains in a broader consolidation beneath mid-July highs.

2. Support/resistance map (confluence zones)

• Resistance/supply overhead:
  • 116.6–116.9k: Prior intraday highs (Aug 22–23), multiple touches and rejections. Also aligns with Fib clusters (see below) and likely 1H MA/VWAP overhead.
  • 116.0–116.4k: Round number, intraday supply shelf, and near hourly moving average cluster; good spot to fade bounces.
  • 117.5–118.0k: Daily inflection area; near prior congestion and approx daily mean levels.
• Support/demand below:
  • 115.0–115.2k: Round number and minor 1H shelf from repeated prints today.
  • 114.3–114.6k: Intraday low and 61.8% retrace of the most recent up leg (Aug 19→Aug 22) sits ~114.38k; strong tactical support.
  • 113.2–113.3k: Classic daily S1 from Aug 22 pivot math (see pivots), and gap-like area that can get filled on momentum.
  • 112.4–112.8k: Aug 19–21 basing/low zone; bigger picture support.

3. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing down (Aug 13 high ~123.68k → Aug 19 low ~112.83k):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 116.65–116.8k; price tagged and stalled just above there on Aug 22 (116.87k), then failed. This marks the first serious bounce resistance and is often where countertrend moves fade.
  • 50% ≈ 118.2k; 61.8% ≈ 119.75k. These remain un-reclaimed and act as higher caps if 116.8k breaks.
• Swing up (Aug 19 low 112.83k → Aug 22 high 116.87k; range ≈ 4.04k):
  • 38.2% pullback ≈ 115.33k (virtually today’s last price). Market is hovering right on this level.
  • 50% ≈ 114.85k; 61.8% ≈ 114.38k. These line up with today’s intraday low band and a strong support cluster (114.3–114.6k). A tag of 114.4k is statistically attractive if the 38.2% gives way.

4. Pivot points (Classic) using Aug 22 H/L/C

• High ≈ 117,377; Low ≈ 111,679; Close ≈ 116,874.
• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 115,310 (today’s price oscillated around it). This strengthens the idea of mean-reverting chop around 115.3k.
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 118,941; S1 = 2P − H ≈ 113,243.
• Implication: Price near the daily pivot tends to chop; failure under P increases odds of a drift toward S1 (113.2–113.3k). Upside headroom to R1 looks ambitious into a low-liquidity weekend.

5. Moving averages and mean reversion

• Daily: Price is likely below the 20-day mean/EMA (given recent selloff) but near or slightly above the 50-day area. This reflects a market in consolidation with a short-term bearish tilt but medium-term neutrality.
• 1H: Price repeatedly failed to hold above probable 1H 200-EMA/VWAP area near 115.8–116.1k (approximate), reinforcing sell-the-rip dynamics intraday.
• Interpretation: Into weekends, crypto often oscillates around daily pivots/VWAPs; being below the faster daily mean but near slower averages favors fading strength toward the lower supports rather than chasing breakouts.

6. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ mid of last 9-day range; with the 9-day high near 123.68k and low near ~112–113k, Tenkan likely ~118k.
• Kijun (26) mid of last 26-day range likely ~117–118k.
• Price < Tenkan and < Kijun: short-term bearish alignment.
• Cloud ahead likely flat-ish around 117–118k, acting like a magnet/resistance above. Until price reclaims Tenkan/Kijun, bounces tend to be sold.

7. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): After the Aug 19 washout, RSI likely rebounded from low-40s/upper-30s to mid-40s/mid-50s; today’s stall near 115.3k keeps RSI neutral-to-slightly bearish. No clear bullish divergence versus Aug 19 yet.
• RSI (1H): Mild bear regime—rallies toward 60 fade; supports break when RSI can’t hold 40–45. Today’s action fits that script.
• Stochastic: On intraday, oscillations are frequent. The failure to get stochastics sustainably embedded above 80 on bounces supports downside mean reversion.
• MACD: Daily histogram improved on the Aug 22 bounce but remains below zero; 1H has rolled over from near-flat, consistent with a fading bounce.

8. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) appears elevated relative to June/early July, roughly in the 2.5–3.5k zone (estimate). Today’s intraday range (~2.4k from 116.99 to 114.61) is within that envelope.
• Implication: A 1.5–3.0k swing over the next 24 hours is plausible. From 116k, a move to 114.2k fits a one-ATR-type objective without demanding a trend day.

9. Volume and participation

• Aug 22 rally printed strong volume, but today’s giveback occurred on lighter intraday turnover—a classic pause day below resistance. However, the inability to push through 116.8k despite prior strong volume signals supply remains active above.
• Weekends carry thinner liquidity—levels can be probed quickly once stops cluster (notably below 114.8/114.4 and above 116.6/116.9).

10. Pattern diagnostics

• 1H bear flag: Initial impulse down (116.99 → 114.61), followed by a rising/sideways consolidation capped beneath ~116.0–116.2k. A breakdown below 114.8k would target 114.3–114.4k; extended move could see 113.2k (measured move plus pivot S1).
• Liquidity map: Clear stop pools likely sit below 114.8k and 114.4k; overhead stops above 116.6–116.9k. Expect stop-driven wicks around these.

11. VWAP/Regression channel (tactical)

• Monthly VWAP (Aug) likely sits modestly above spot given early-month prints 115–116.5k and the mid-month spike to 123.7k; price currently below/near it, consistent with a sell-rallies posture intraday.
• Short-term regression (last 24–36 hours) slopes down; fades at the upper band outperformed chases.

12. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• The drop from Aug 13 high to Aug 19 low looks impulsive; the rebound to Aug 22 resembles an A/B/C or 3-wave corrective pop that stalled at the 38.2%–43% zone. If that read holds, a C-leg down toward 114.3 first—and potentially 113.2 later—fits the script.

13. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• Price trades below/near the middle band (20-day). Mean reversion would argue for a retest of the mid-band (~117k area), but failure to reclaim it quickly today keeps the tactical tilt lower. On the 1H, squeezes are forming; break direction bias is marginally down given trend and rejection levels.

14. Confluence and 24h path expectation

• Confluences:
  • 116.6–116.9k resistance = 38.2% retrace of the larger selloff + recent rejection highs + likely cloud/MA/VWAP overhead.
  • 115.3k = Daily pivot and 38.2% retrace of the latest up-leg; price currently sitting here.
  • 114.85k (50%) and 114.38k (61.8%) of the Aug 19→Aug 22 swing cluster with today’s intraday low region and form the next logical magnets.
  • 113.24k = Classic S1; extension target if momentum accelerates.
• Base case next 24h: A bounce into 115.8–116.2k finds sellers; subsequent drift toward 114.8k, with a high-probability tag of 114.4k. Tail risk: a quick stop run to 116.7–116.9k before fading; or, on the downside, a momentum push to 113.2k if 114.3k snaps.

15. Trade plan rationale (Sell on strength)

• Entry logic: Sell limit near 116.0k to fade into layered resistance with defined risk above 116.9–117.2k.
• Profit-taking logic: First target 114.2–114.4k aligns with 61.8% retrace of the latest upswing and intraday demand. That’s a realistic 1–1.8k move in a 24h weekend window.
• Risk framing (not an order, for context): A protective stop could sit ~117.2k (above the 116.9k cap and round-number slippage), yielding a favorable R:R of roughly 1:1.7 to 1:2 from 116.0k to 114.2–114.4k.

Prediction (24h)

• Expected range: 114.0k–116.9k with a bearish skew; most likely path: bounce toward 115.8–116.2k, then rotation down to 114.4k; possible extension to 113.2k if liquidity thins.

Note: This is a technical view based solely on the provided data; no fundamental catalysts were considered. Manage risk accordingly, especially over the weekend when liquidity can be patchy.