BTC at the Edge: Sell the Bounce into 114k, Target 111.4k in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways. BTC is pressing on a well-watched 112–113k demand with a pattern of lower highs, sitting beneath key moving averages and Ichimoku lines. Expect a reflex bounce into 113.8–114.6k that likely fades back toward 112.0–111.4k; a clean break of ~111.8k can accelerate toward ~110.8k.
• Strategy: Sell rallies into resistance rather than chase weakness. Optimal entry aligns with classic pivots and recent intraday supply.

Multi-timeframe structure and levels

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • Trend since mid-July: Uptrend peaked on Aug 13 (high ~123.68k). Since then: distribution with successive lower highs (120.17k → 118.76/118.37k → 117.38/116.99k → today’s intraday ~115.60k) and marginally lower lows (112.73k → 111.99k → today ~111.87k). This maps a descending triangle: falling trendline of highs vs. a relatively flat base ~112–113k.
  • Key daily S/R:
    • Resistance: 115.3–115.6k (today’s supply, classic PP region), 116.9–117.4k (Aug 22 close + local swing), 118.1–118.4k (R2/old shelf), 120.2k, 123.3–123.7k.
    • Support: 112.8k (Aug 19 close), 112.4k (Aug 21 close), 111.8k (classic S3 calc), 111.4k (today’s spike low), 110.8–110.0k (round-figure magnet if 111.8k gives way).
• Intraday (hourly, 48h):
  • Persistent grind lower through Sunday with a decisive sell impulse at 19:00 UTC (low ~111.41k) and heavy volume, followed by a weak bounce to ~112.7k–113.0k. Structure remains below hourly 20/50 MAs with rallies sold.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA/EMA: Approx mid-116s. Price decisively below → near-term bearish and mean-reversion room above.
• 50-day SMA: Approx low-113s to mid-114s (blended from June/July). Current price is oscillating around/just below → battleground. Losing the 50-DMA after rejecting the 20-DMA is a classic bearish continuation tell.
• Alignment: 20 < price? No. Price < 20DMA and roughly at/below 50DMA = short-term downtrend within a still-higher timeframe uptrend.

Momentum

• RSI(14) daily: Likely mid-40s (bearish/neutral). Room to bounce from near-lower-band conditions but no confirmation of trend reversal.
• RSI hourly: Dipped oversold (<30) on the 19:00–20:00 dump; rebound still below 50 = bear-market-rally characteristics intraday.
• MACD daily: Histogram negative with signal above MACD → bearish momentum persists; any bounces likely corrective unless MACD curls and crosses.
• Stochastic (daily/intraday): Intraday turning up from oversold, supportive of a near-term bounce into resistance rather than trend change.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 3.5–4.0k. Expect 24h envelope ≈ ±3–4k from spot, i.e., 109–116k range feasible.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ~116.5k; lower band estimated ~111–112k. Price just tested/near lower band → propensity for a reflex bounce, but being below mid-band keeps the trend bearish.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen ≈ 115.1k (9-period midpoint) — price below.
• Kijun-sen (26-period) likely ~117–118k — price well below.
• Cloud (Senkou span A/B) projected near mid/high-116s — price below cloud.
• Implication: Bearish regime; rallies into Tenkan/Kijun are sell zones until reclaimed.

Volume, participation, and flow proxies

• Volume spikes on down candles (Aug 22–24 and today’s 19:00–20:00 UTC hourly) indicate distribution/exit-on-strength behavior.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Likely rolled over post-Aug 13 top; no evidence of aggressive accumulation at current support.
• Weekend effect: Thinner liquidity amplifies moves; Asia Monday open can extend the dominant move (currently down) after any bounce.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: Aug 13 high ~123.68k → Aug 19 low ~112.73k.
  • 38.2%: ~116.0k (cap recently)
  • 50%: ~118.2k (prior rejection zone)
  • 61.8%: ~120.4k (untouched since drop)
• Current action sitting back near the prior swing low. A break under ~112.7k opens extension:
  • 1.272 ext from that swing eyes ~110.3–110.8k.

Classical pivots (based on Aug 23 H/L/C: 116.996/114.536/115.374)

• PP: 115.635
• R1/R2/R3: 116.734 / 118.095 / 119.194
• S1/S2/S3: 114.274 / 113.175 / 111.814
• Price has already probed S3 (~111.81k) and is hovering between S2 and S3. Typical mean reversion would target S1/PP before trend decides; with the broader bearish context, that reversion is a sell opportunity.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle: Lower highs compressing against the 112–113k base. Measured move of the formation (~120k to 112k = 8k) targets ~104k on a clean daily breakdown. While that larger target is not a 24h expectation, it frames risk if 112k fails decisively this week.
• Intraday micro-structures: Post-dump bear flag potential if price stalls beneath ~113.8–114.3k and rolls.

VWAP/anchored context (qualitative)

• Anchored from July breakout/July 10 surge likely sits ~116–118k; price below implies sellers control above, enhancing the sell-the-bounce thesis. Intraday session VWAPs on Sunday sit above current price after the dump → rallies to VWAP likely meet supply.

Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Reflex bounce to 113.8–114.6k (S1/overhead supply/near Tenkan on lower TF), then fade to 112.2–111.4k by/into Asia–EU overlap. Daily close near/under 112.7k.
• Bear acceleration (20%): Quick failure below 111.8k S3 → slide to 110.8–110.0k (1.272 ext/round figure). Would require continued heavy sell volume or macro headline.
• Squeeze risk (25%): Strong reclaim of 114.6k, then 115.6k PP. A sustained push above ~116.3–116.9k flips momentum, opening 118.1k. This would invalidate the short idea.

Trade plan and risk management

• Thesis: Sell the bounce into confluence resistance while broader context remains bearish.
• Entry: 114,250 (limit) — aligns with classic S1 (114.274k), recent intraday supply, and within the 113.8–114.6k bounce window.
• Take-profit (primary): 111,400 — just above the 111.3–111.8k S3/low cluster to capture the high-probability portion before deep extension.
• Suggested stop (discipline, not requested but prudent): 115,800 — above PP (115.635), beyond today’s intraday supply and near hourly structure break. Risk ~1.55k vs reward ~2.85k → R:R ≈ 1:1.8.
• If bounce under-shoots entry: Consider scale-in logic: partial at 113,750; add near 114,250; average ~114.0k; same stop/TP bands. Alternatively, momentum add on breakdown below 111,800 with a tighter stop above 112,600 and target 110,800.
• Position sizing: Size so that a 1.6k adverse move equals 0.5–1.0% of equity. Volatility is elevated; avoid over-leverage into thin Sunday/Monday liquidity.

Confirmation checklist before entry

• Hourly RSI stalls near 50 on the bounce and rolls.
• Price rejection wick(s) at 114.2–114.6k with increasing sell volume.
• Failure to reclaim hourly 50EMA/VWAP on the rally.

What invalidates

• Firm hourly close above 115.6k and daily push above ~116.3–116.9k. That would point to a rotation back toward the 118.1–120.4k retracement zone and negate the immediate short.

24h path forecast (price map)

• Early bounce to 113.8–114.6k → rejection → drift to 112.2k → liquidity sweep 111.8–111.4k → modest end-of-day stabilization near 112.0–112.7k. Bear-acceleration tail risk to ~110.8k if 111.8k breaks with force.

Bottom line

• Multiple tools align bearishly (sub-20DMA/Ichimoku cloud, negative MACD, descending triangle, volume on downswings). The proximity to daily lower Bollinger and classic S3 suggests a bounce first, but the higher-probability trade is to sell into that strength with defined risk and aim for a retest of 111s.