BTC’s Floor Just Gave Way: Sell the Retest of 112k, Aim for 108k in 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways with rallies sold. Expect a reflex bounce toward 111.7–112.5k to be capped, followed by continuation into 108.0–108.6k. A deeper extension to ~107.0k is possible if 109.6k gives way with momentum.
• Trade idea: Short a retest of broken support turned resistance in the 111.7–112.5k zone. Target the 108.0–108.3k cluster (61.8% daily Fib confluence with intraday S1) within 24h.

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe) Daily

• Structure: A sequence of lower highs since the 8/13 swing high (123.68k) to 8/22 (116.87k) to 8/24 (113.46k), culminating in today’s breakdown. This maps a clean descending triangle with a flat base around 112.0–113.0k; today’s decisive breach confirms the pattern.
• Candle: Today prints a large bearish wide-range candle (near-Marubozu) with close near the low, signaling trend continuation rather than exhaustion.
• Key SR: 120–123k heavy supply (July–August distribution), 116.8–118.0k lower supply shelf, 112–113.5k former floor/now resistance, 110.98k 50% Fib, 108.0k 61.8% Fib, 107.0k intraday S2 pivot vicinity, 105–106k daily support band.

4h

• Price has broken beneath the 4h range (112.2–116.9k) and is now printing lower highs/lower lows with acceleration. Attempts to reclaim 112.2–112.6k were rejected.
• Large volume expansion on the breakdown candle supports a genuine regime shift rather than a mere stop-run.

1h

• Clear intraday trend change midday UTC: a series of lower highs, then a vertical sell program 19:00–20:00 UTC pushing to 109.59k low, closing 109.87k.
• The 111.2–112.2k zone is now the first supply shelf from which sellers defended multiple times. Expect this to be the “sell-the-bounce” window.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 116.5k (est.). Price is ~5.7% below, indicating short-term oversold but firmly below mean.
• 50D SMA ≈ 114–115k (est.), now overhead resistance; slope flattening-to-down after mid-Aug roll.
• 100D SMA ≈ ~110–111k (est.). Price is challenging this longer-term trend proxy; a sustained close below increases odds of a move to 108k and possibly 106k.
• EMA ribbon (4h/1h): Ribbons flipped bearish and fanned out; price riding below the 8/21/34 EMAs—a textbook “band walk” after expansion. Implication: Trend is down across intraday and turning down on daily. Rallies into the MA clusters should be sold.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-30s and falling after an 11% drawdown from the 8/13 peak. Not yet at capitulation teens; room lower. Oversold conditions can persist in trend.
• 4h RSI: Deeply oversold during breakdown; minor mean reversion bounce probable toward 111.7–112.5k before sellers reassert.
• MACD (D/4h): Bearish cross already in place; histogram expanding negative, signaling momentum continuation.
• Stochastics (4h/1h): Attempting to curl up from oversold—a setup consistent with a reflex pop into resistance, not necessarily a trend reversal. Implication: Momentum favors continuation after a small bounce.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Midline ~116.5k; lower band likely ~112–113k recently, now breached with a “band walk” expansion. A brief mean-reversion tag is plausible, but the expansion phase typically sustains until a clear reversal print forms.
• ATR(14D): Estimated 3.5–4.5k. Expect a 24h trading envelope approximately 107.0–112.5k around the current mark. Implication: Scope for a 2–3k oscillation—enough to fade bounces and target the 108k pocket.

5. Volume, OBV, and order flow read

• Today’s 20:00 UTC hour printed the session’s largest volume on a downside acceleration—distribution, not absorption.
• OBV (conceptually) would notch a lower low after several heavy down days (8/14, 8/19, 8/24–25), reinforcing a distribution regime.
• Market profile logic: A fat volume node formed 117–119k in August; price was rejected beneath it last week. The 112–114k area was a developing node; breaking below created a thin zone—hence the fast drop. The next volume acceptance is closer to 108–110k and then 105–106k. Implication: Supply dominating; bounces likely to meet overhead inventory.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily/4h)

• Price below conversion (Tenkan) and base (Kijun) and below the cloud; Span A below Span B, Chikou well below price. 4h cloud also overhead. Implication: Fully bearish Ichimoku stack. Probabilistic edge to sell rallies until a Kijun reclaim.

7. Fibonacci and confluences

• Swing range: 6/22 low 98,286 to 8/13 high 123,682 → range 25,396.
  • 38.2%: 113,978 (recent floor breakdown area)
  • 50%: 110,984 (just lost intraday)
  • 61.8%: 107,986 (primary magnet if 110k fails)
• Intraday pivot math (8/25 session approximations):
  • Pivot P ≈ 111,012; R1 ≈ 112,437; S1 ≈ 108,439; S2 ≈ 107,014.
• Confluence map:
  • 111.7–112.5k: prior floor, hourly supply, near R1/pivot band.
  • 108.0–108.6k: 61.8% daily Fib (107,986) + S1 (108,439) + psychological 108k. Implication: Short into 111.7–112.5k offers attractive R:R toward 108.0–108.6k.

8. Candles and patterns

• Descending triangle resolved down: multiple tests of 112–113k base followed by a decisive break on volume—the classic continuation structure.
• Today’s candle is a wide-range red body with closing near lows; not a hammer or doji—no reversal signal.
• 1h prints long-bodied red bars with shallow lower wicks around 109.6–110k—no obvious bullish rejection yet. Implication: Pattern confirms bearish continuation after any squeeze bounces.

9. ADX/DMI and trend quality

• DMI(-) above DMI(+) on 4h; ADX rising through low-20s area suggests trend strength is building, not fading. Implication: Favors trend-following entries on bounces.

10. VWAP and intraday context

• Session VWAP sits above price (roughly 111–111.5k). Multiple failed reclaim attempts. Price under VWAP = sellers in control.
• Expect reversion attempts to stall at/just above VWAP if momentum remains heavy.

11. Risk catalysts and correlations (qualitative)

• Macro risk-off impulses (USD strength, yields up) and broad crypto de-leveraging would support continued pressure. No visible idiosyncratic BTC bid today.
• Typical Monday weakness can bleed into early Tuesday before stabilization; aligns with the technicals.

12. Scenario tree (24h)

• Base case (60%): Bounce to 111.7–112.5k supply, fail, rotate down to 108.0–108.6k; potential intraday spike to ~107.9k on stop sweep before modest end-of-day stabilization.
• Bearish extension (25%): Weak bounce capped <111.2k; break 109.6k early → accelerate to 107.0k (S2) before a late rebound.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong squeeze above 112.5k and reclaim 113.4–113.6k; would threaten a push toward 114.7–115.0k and force shorts to cover. Probability lower absent a catalyst. Invalidation/awareness: A sustained hourly close above 113.5–113.6k would damage the short thesis for the next 24h.

13. Trade plan (professional framing)

• Strategy: Sell-the-bounce into broken support (role reversal), aligned with trend/momentum and supported by volume and Fib/pivot confluence.
• Entry zone: 111.7–112.5k (optimal around 111.95–112.20k). This is the underside of the prior base, near R1/VWAP confluence.
• Target: 108.0–108.3k (61.8% Fib + S1 cluster). Conservative take-profit before deeper bids at 107.0k.
• Risk management (analysis-only guidance): Logical protective stop above 113.6k (prior intraday supply and invalidation pocket). R:R roughly 1:2.5–1:3 if entry 112.0k, stop 113.6k, TP 108.1k.
• Alternate trigger if bounce fails: Momentum continuation sell-stop under 109.5k aiming for 108.1k, but the preferred plan remains to fade the pop due to better R:R.

14. Why not long?

• While daily oversold versus 20SMA suggests a reflex bounce, the breakdown’s volume/momentum plus pattern resolution argues against countertrend longs for the next 24h. Better to let the bounce unfold and sell into it.

Conclusion

• Confluence across structure, momentum, volatility expansion, and volume confirms a bearish tactical edge. The highest-probability, best R:R trade within 24h is a short on a retest of 111.7–112.5k with a take-profit around 108.1k.