BTC poised for a countertrend pop: buying the 111k retest for a run into the 112.7–113.3k confluence

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (countertrend bounce) toward 112.7–113.5k, with key resistance at the 23.6% retrace and daily R1 pivot. Dips into 110.8–111.1k are buyable; loss of 110.0k risks a quick slide toward 109.3–108.8k.
• Decision: Tactical Buy (long) with a limit entry on a pullback; target the first overhead confluence at ~113.25k.

Context and market structure

• Timeframe coverage: Daily trend has been in a corrective downswing since the 8/13 peak (~123.34k). Intraday (hourly) has turned up over the last 12–18 hours with higher highs/lows and a late-session breakout above 111.1k.
• Recent path: 8/13 close 123.34k → 8/19 troughing near 112.83k → reaction to 116.87k (8/22) → renewed selloff to 110.12k close (8/25) with high volume → 8/26 prints a bullish green day so far, low 109.15k, now 111.35k.
• Regime: Mean-reversion from lower daily Bollinger band with intraday momentum up; medium-term trend still down beneath the 20-day SMA.

Price action and key levels Daily levels (from recent data):

• Major resistance ladder: 112.7–113.5k (8/19–8/24 closes, pivot R1 and 23.6% Fib), 114.27k (8/20 close), 115.17–115.34k (Fib 38.2% and daily R2), 116.87k (8/22 high/close zone), 118.30k (Fib 61.8%).
• Supports: 111.0–111.2k (today’s breakout zone and daily pivot P), 110.1k (8/25 close), 109.15–109.32k (today’s and yesterday’s lows), 108.42k (daily S1), 106.7k (daily S2), 105–106k (June congestion shelf). Intraday (hourly) structure 8/26:
• Sequence of higher lows from 109.27 → 109.84 → 110.00 → 109.84 → 110.14 → 109.70 → 110.06 → 109.91 → 110.71 → 111.15 → 111.38. Clear micro uptrend with a breakout into the 111.1–111.4k pocket.
• The 18:00–20:00 UTC hours showed range expansion and acceptance above 111k; that zone should act as first support on dips.

Moving averages

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~116.6k (average of last 19 closes through 8/25 ≈ 116,555; today still below). Price is ~5k under the 20-SMA → medium-term bearish, but extended to the downside.
• Daily 50-SMA (qualitative): likely in 113–115k area given July’s 117–120k consolidation and June’s 104–107k prints. Current price is near/below the 50-SMA, adding to resistance overhead in 112.5–114.5k.
• Hourly MAs (qualitative): Price is trading above short-term MAs (e.g., 20/50-hour), consistent with the intraday bullish shift. Impact: Below daily 20/50-SMAs suggests rallies are sellable medium-term, but the current distance below the 20-SMA favors a mean-reversion bounce toward 112.7–113.5k before heavier supply.

Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative): Likely in the low 40s after a 10%+ pullback from 8/13. Not oversold anymore if today’s bounce persists, but still below 50 → downside momentum has cooled yet not reversed.
• 4H/1H RSI: 1H RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s after the breakout; 4H recovering from sub-40 into ~50. This supports continuation higher intraday with occasional pullbacks to reset momentum.
• MACD daily: Histogram negative since 8/14’s breakdown; slope flattening and could begin turning up if price holds above 111k and pushes into 112s. On 1H, MACD is already crossed up, confirming the short-term turn. Impact: Momentum is turning up on lower timeframes while still negative on the daily; this combination typically produces a tradable bounce into resistance rather than a full trend reversal in the next 24h.

Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): 3.0–3.8k based on recent ranges. Expect a one-day move width of ~±3k from the session baseline.
• 24h expected range from current 111.35k: 108.5k to 114.3k, skewed slightly upward given intraday momentum and mean reversion. Impact: A push to 112.7–113.5k fits within one ATR. A break under 110.0k opens room to 109.3k quickly.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2): Mid-band near ~116.6k, lower band estimated ~108.5–109.0k given recent volatility. Yesterday’s close (110.12k) was near the lower band; today’s bounce is classic mean-reversion behavior away from the band.
• 1H BB: Price hugging upper band post-breakout; expect pullbacks to the middle band (around 111.0k area) before continuation upswing. Impact: Confluence supports a tactical long on dips with targets below the middle daily band and near first resistance cluster.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 8/13 high 123,344 → 8/25 low 110,124)

• Range: 13,220.
• 23.6%: 113,243 — first retracement and likely magnet within 24h.
• 38.2%: 115,173 — aligns near daily R2; less likely within 24h unless a squeeze.
• 50%: 116,734 — deeper retrace, more likely later if trend changes.
• 61.8%: 118,297 — larger countertrend, unlikely in 24h. Impact: 113.24k is an ideal take-profit area for a near-term bounce.

Pivots and VWAP

• Classic daily pivots (derived from 8/25 H/L/C: 113,637.8 / 109,324.3 / 110,124.4):
  • Pivot P ≈ 111,028.8 — we are holding above this, bullish intraday.
  • R1 ≈ 112,733.4 — first overhead objective.
  • R2 ≈ 115,342.4 — stretch target beyond 24h base case.
  • S1 ≈ 108,419.8 — below current supports.
• Session VWAP (intraday qualitative): Likely ~110.5k; price is above VWAP, a tailwind for continuation as long as above ~111k pullback support. Impact: P at ~111.0k is the pullback buy zone; R1 at ~112.73k aligns with Fib 23.6% cluster, creating a strong 112.7–113.3k target band.

Candlestick and pattern read

• 8/25: Large red body with heavy volume — potential near-term capitulation.
• 8/26 (in progress): Green candle with long lower shadow (low 109.15k) and close near highs — a bullish reversal-type day if it finishes above 111k.
• 1H: Ascending structure with a small breakout above 111.15–111.40k; likely to backtest 111.0–111.1k before attempting 112s. Impact: Bullish intraday pattern favors a buy-the-dip approach.

Volume analysis

• 8/25 volume ~85.7B, 8/26 already ~73.4B — elevated turnover near local lows often marks short-term bottoms.
• Intraday spike on the 18:00–20:00 UTC rally suggests initiative buying and short covering above 111k. Impact: Supports continuation into the first resistance band.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely below Tenkan/Kijun and below the cloud — medium-term bearish.
• 1H: Price above Tenkan/Kijun and above the cloud post-breakout — short-term bullish regime. Impact: Multitimeframe divergence supports a countertrend pop, not a full reversal (yet).

Confluence map

• Entry support: 110.95–111.10k = daily pivot P, intraday breakout retest, 1H mid-BB/VWAP area.
• First target: 112.7–113.3k = pivot R1 plus 23.6% Fib retrace and prior close cluster (8/19–8/24).
• Secondary stretch (lower probability within 24h): 114.2–115.2k = prior daily close at 114.27k and Fib 38.2%/R2 vicinity.
• Invalidation: Sustained trade back below 110.0k (yesterday’s close and psychological level) would negate the intraday bull structure and refocus the 109.3k lows.

Scenarios and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base (≈60%): Pullback to 111.0k ±100, then continuation to 112.7–113.3k. Consolidate under resistance into tomorrow.
• Bear (≈30%): Failure to hold 111.0–110.8k, quick drop to 110.1k and sweep 109.6–109.3k liquidity; rebound toward 110.8–111.2k by end of window.
• Bull (≈10%): Straight grind through 112.7k; momentum squeeze into 113.8–114.3k, with tails up to 115.1k if liquidity is thin.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Entry: Limit buy 111,050 on dip (prior breakout retest and near daily pivot P). If momentum accelerates and no dip, an alternative momentum add is a minor pullback after a break >111,500, but the primary plan is the dip buy.
• Target: 113,250 (Fib 23.6% cluster and just above R1 to improve fill probability).
• Risk management (informational): Logical stop would sit below 109,600 (under 8/26/01:00–03:00 lows and today’s sweep zone), giving an R:R ~1.5 using the primary target. A tighter intraday stop could be ~110,300 if actively managed, but that risks shakeout.

Why not short now?

• Hourly structure is bullish with fresh breakout acceptance; shorting into that strength before tagging the first overhead confluence has lower odds. The better asymmetric short may set up from 112.9–113.5k if momentum stalls there.

Prediction summary (24h)

• Path of least resistance: 111.0k pullback → 111.8–112.1k → 112.7–113.3k test. Expect sellers to show near 113k; consolidation likely below 113.5k unless a surprise catalyst hits.