BTC’s Bearish Bounce: Fading 112.6–113.2 Resistance for a Drop Toward 110.2

Executive summary

• Context: BTC is trading at $112,364 after a multi-week pullback from the Aug 13 swing high (~$123,682). Price structure since mid-Aug shows lower highs and lower lows, with repeated failures at nearby resistances. Intraday action today shows two rejections near ~$112.60–$112.62 and price holding marginally above ~$112k. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours remains mildly lower unless bulls can reclaim ~$113.2–$114.0.
• Bias (24h): Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect mean-reversion pops into resistance to be sold, with downside tests toward $111.0–$110.2 likely if $112.6 fails again.
• Trade idea: Short strength into $112.6–$113.2, targeting a retest of $110.2. Invalidation above $114.0–$114.4.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

1. Daily trend

• Structure: Clear lower high from Aug 13 ($123.7k) to Aug 22 ($116.9k), followed by a lower low Aug 25 (~$109.3k). Current bounce is beneath prior swing resistances (bearish market structure).
• Channeling: Price respects a descending channel since mid-Aug. The upper channel boundary for the next 24h aligns with ~$113.2–$114.0; lower boundary ~$109.6–$110.2.
• Key S/R map (daily): • Resistance: $112.60–$112.90 (intraday supply), $113.45 (Aug 24 close), $114.80 (38.2% retrace), $116.5 (50% retrace), $118.2 (61.8% retrace), $119.8–$120.3 (late-July congestion), $123.1–$123.7 (double-top zone). • Support: $111.0–$110.7 (intraday shelf), $110.12 (Aug 25 close), $109.58 (S1 pivot calc), $108.76 (Aug 26 low), $107.35 (S2 pivot), $106.1–$105.7 (late-June pivot area).

2. Intraday (hourly) trend

• Today printed a higher low from early-session dip (110.67) and two failed pushes at ~112.60–112.62 (14:00 and 18:00 UTC), forming a short-term double-top with waning momentum. That creates a tactical sell-the-rip setup into the 112.6–113.2 band.
• VWAP/mean reversion: Price has oscillated around ~112.0 (session VWAP proxy). Trading slightly above VWAP with immediate resistance overhead is prone to mean-revert if momentum stalls.

Moving averages and crossovers

• Daily MAs (estimates): • 10D SMA ≈ 114.5–115.5; 20D SMA ≈ 116–117; 50D SMA ≈ 114.5–115.5. Price is below 10D/20D/50D, indicating bearish alignment or at best neutral-to-bearish. • EMA(8/21) daily: 8EMA < 21EMA since mid-Aug selloff, momentum still negative. No confirmed bull cross yet.
• Hourly MAs: Short MAs are flat-to-slightly up, but capped under 112.6–113.2 resistance. Until a clean close above that zone, rallies likely fade.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est): Mid-40s after bouncing from near-oversold on Aug 25; below 50 implies weak bull impulse. Room exists to push lower before oversold again.
• RSI (1h, est): Mid-50s but with a mild bearish divergence versus the 14:00 and 18:00 double-top near 112.6.
• MACD (daily): Bearish since Aug 14–15. Histogram contraction suggests selling pressure is less intense, but bulls haven’t triggered a daily bullish cross.
• MACD (1h): Slightly positive but flattening under resistance—consistent with a fade setup unless price expands above 113.2.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily, est): ~$2.8k–$3.3k. Implies a plausible 24h realized range of ~$2.5k–$3.5k.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, est): Price rebounded off the lower band (Aug 25–26). Mid-band ~20D SMA near ~$116–$117 now acts as resistance. Being below mid-band favors selling bounces.
• Keltner Channels: Price is mid-to-lower band, consistent with a controlled downtrend and compression that can extend lower before a larger mean reversion.

Ichimoku Cloud (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Cloud; Kijun (≈116) above Tenkan (≈112–113). Below-Kumo state usually favors rallies being sold. A reclaim of Kijun would be the first sign of trend repair, which is not present yet.

Fibonacci mapping (Aug 13 high to Aug 25/26 lows)

• Swing high: ~123.68k; swing low: ~109.32k.
• Retracement levels: 38.2% ≈ 114.8k; 50% ≈ 116.5k; 61.8% ≈ 118.2k. Current price is below 38.2%, confirming weak retracement quality and bear control. Any bounce toward 114.8–116.5 is a sell zone unless structure changes.

Pivot points (calculated from Aug 26 H/L/C ~112.397/108.762/111.803)

• Pivot (P) ≈ 110.987
• R1 ≈ 113.212; R2 ≈ 114.622
• S1 ≈ 109.577; S2 ≈ 107.352
• Current price is beneath R1, reinforcing 113.2 as a tactical upside cap for the session.

Volume and flow

• Rising volume on down days into Aug 25, followed by lighter volume on bounces—a bearish volume profile. Intraday today shows activity increases into the 112.6 tests and sellers step in, consistent with supply overhead.
• If a third attempt at 112.6–113.2 attracts heavier buy volume, a quick squeeze to 114.3–114.8 is possible. Absent that, expect supply to dominate.

Patterns and signals

• Double-top (intraday) around 112.6 with lower momentum is a near-term bearish pattern.
• Larger double-top on the daily around 123.1–123.7 from mid-July to Aug 13 preceded the current down-leg; neckline breaks have already played out, but the pattern still biases rallies to fail until repaired.
• Candlesticks: Aug 25 printed a long lower wick near 109–110 (demand), yet follow-through has been tepid and capped under nearby resistance—typical of a bear market bounce.

Quant-style blend and probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range-to-down. Price chops 111.2–113.2, failing under R1 and rolling back toward 110.7–110.2 late session.
• Bear extension (25%): Momentum break under 110.7 opens 110.2 then 109.6; strong vol could tag 108.8 (yesterday’s low region) aligning with S1/S2 ladders across sessions.
• Bull squeeze (20%): Acceptance above 113.2 triggers a push to 114.3–114.8 (38.2% fib/ R2 vicinity). Sustained trade above 114.8 would challenge 116.5, but that requires a regime shift absent in current data.

Confluence summary

• Multiple systems converge on 112.6–113.2 as near-term resistance: intraday double-top, daily descending channel top, daily Tenkan proximity, and R1 pivot. Below this zone, the risk/reward favors shorts on strength with targets back to 110.2–109.6 (S1 cluster and prior close).

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Direction: Sell rips (Short).
• Entry: Prefer a limit sell in the 112,600–113,200 zone. This aligns with intraday supply and R1.
• Take-profit: First target 110,200 (prior close cluster and support shelf). Secondary target, if momentum persists, 109,600. For this brief 24h plan, we fix TP at 110,200.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management): Above 114,000–114,400 (clear break of R1/R2 band and back into daily mid-BB/tenkan-kijun bridge). That would imply a squeeze toward 114.8–116.5.
• Sizing: Given ATR ~3k, size positions assuming a 1.5–2.0k adverse swing is plausible intraday.

What would flip the bias?

• A strong hourly close >113.2 with rising volume and follow-through above 114.0 would weaken the short setup and shift bias to a squeeze toward 114.8–116.5. Until then, sellers have the better asymmetry.

Prediction (24h)

• Expect BTC to trade between $111.2 and $113.2 for much of the session, with a higher probability of a late drift lower to $110.2 if 112.6 continues to cap rallies. Bear extension risk to $109.6 exists if $110.7 breaks.

Note: This is a tactical view for the next 24 hours, not financial advice. Always manage risk.