BTC: Fade the 61.8% Bounce — Short into 112.4–112.6k, Aim for 110.1k in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Instrument: BTCUSD
• Current price: 111,927
• Bias next 24h: Bearish drift with a sell-the-bounce setup
• Plan: Short into a 61.8% intraday retracement toward 112.4–112.6k; target a retest of 110.1k

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily):
  • From the Aug 13 swing high at ~123.7k, BTC has made a sequence of lower highs/lower lows. The Aug 25 low printed ~109.3k (intraday) with a close at 110.1k, followed by weak bounces failing below the 20D SMA.
  • Current close 111.93k is ~3.3% below the 20D SMA (~115.77k), and likely below the 50D SMA (approx 113.5–114.5k). That places price in the lower half of the recent 20-session distribution, consistent with a mild downtrend.
  • Daily candle today: small-bodied, close slightly above open but below mid-range (H 113.35k, L 110.93k, C 111.93k). This is indecisive but within a bearish context; not a strong reversal print.
• Medium timeframe (4H/1H):
  • Intraday on 8/28: early push to ~113.35k failed; subsequent lower highs and a steady fade into the US afternoon with notable sell-volume spikes at 19:00–20:00 UTC. Structure is a descending intraday channel.
  • The last 24h range (H 113.35k, L 110.93k ≈ 2.42k) sits near the recent 14D ATR, showing normal volatility. Price into the close held below VWAP/POC, a bearish tell.

2. Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages (Daily):
  • 20D SMA ≈ 115,766; price ~3.3% below. This suggests a downside skew without extreme deviation (not a capitulation level).
  • 50D SMA (est.) ~113.5–114.5k; price < 50D suggests medium-term sellers still in control.
  • Slope: 20D rolling over; 50D flattening to down. No bullish MA crossover in play.
• RSI (14D):
  • Estimated at ~37.7 (bearish but not oversold). This leaves room for a further leg down before a strong mean-reversion impulse is likely.
• MACD (Daily):
  • Below signal and sub-zero by inference from price path since Aug 13; histogram likely negative but contracting slightly over the last two sessions. Momentum is still down but losing speed, fitting a grind-lower scenario.
• Stochastics (Daily/1H):
  • Daily near the lower quartile; 1H oscillates but failed to get traction above midline on bounces. This pattern favors shorting rallies rather than chasing lows.
• ADX/DMI (Daily):
  • ADX moderate (est. low-20s): a developed but not explosive trend. -DI > +DI aligns with bears retaining the edge, but without trend exhaustion yet.

3. Volatility, bands, and reversion

• Bollinger Bands (20D, 2σ):
  • Mid-band ~115.8k; rough 2σ envelope ~±7k (est.). Current price ~3.8k below mid-band and ~3.2k above the inferred lower band. That is not an extreme reading; the band context favors another test lower before a mean-reverting snapback.
• ATR (14D):
  • Estimated daily ATR ~2.6–3.2k. A 24h move from current levels to ~110.1k fits within a 1×ATR excursion.

4. Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Intraday VWAP (8/28 session):
  • VWAP/POC clustered ~112.6–112.9k during the AM/early PM. Price closed below VWAP and below the value area, signaling distribution and a likely reversion-to-VWAP bounce that sellers can fade.
• Volume tells:
  • The two largest hourly prints near the close were on down candles (19:00–20:00 UTC), indicative of aggressive supply into bids.

5. Key levels, pivots, and confluence

• Classical floor pivots (based on 8/28 H/L/C ≈ 113,352 / 110,930 / 111,927):
  • Pivot P ≈ 112,070
  • R1 ≈ 113,209; R2 ≈ 114,492
  • S1 ≈ 110,787; S2 ≈ 109,648
  • Current price is below P → bearish intraday bias. R1 lines up with prior intraday supply zone.
• Fibonacci (8/28 intraday swing: H 113,352 → L 110,930):
  • 38.2% ≈ 111,855; 50% ≈ 112,141; 61.8% ≈ 112,427
  • Ideal short zone: 112.4–112.6k (61.8% + VWAP confluence, just under the day’s value area).
• Supports:
  • 111.2–111.4k: minor. 110.9k: intraday low/reflex point.
  • 110.1k: Aug 25 close and psychological handle; high-likelihood magnet if 110.9k breaks.
  • 108.8–109.7k: S2 and prior gap-like pocket; reachable only on a high-vol expansion.
• Resistances:
  • 112.4–112.9k: 61.8% retracement + VWAP/POC cluster.
  • 113.2–113.4k: R1 and session high zone; strong intraday supply.

6. Pattern diagnostics

• Price action: Bear flag/descending channel from the Aug 25 low. Consolidation bounces are shallow and sold.
• Candlesticks: Repeated upper wicks on 1H near 113.2–113.3k. Today’s daily is a small-bodied candle under the MAs—neutral-to-bearish continuation more likely than reversal.
• Elliott sketch: From the Aug 13 top, a 5-wave sequence is plausible. Wave-3 likely culminated into Aug 25; wave-4 corrective chopped beneath 20D MA; a modest wave-5 extension toward 110k or a slight undercut (109.6–109.9k) is a reasonable 24–48h projection.
• Ichimoku (1H/4H inference): Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead near 112.7–113.3k. A mean-reversion pop into the underbelly of the cloud is a textbook short location.

7. Probabilistic path next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early bounce toward 112.4–112.6k (61.8% + VWAP) fails; sellers reassert, pushing through 111.2–111.0k toward 110.3–110.1k. Close near 110.3–110.8k.
• Range case (25%): Chop between 111.0–112.8k; closes near 111.8–112.3k.
• Upside squeeze (15%): Breaks and holds above 113.2–113.4k (R1/overhead supply), runs stops into 114.0–114.5k (R2 vicinity) before fading.

8. Trade plan (tactical short)

• Rationale: Confluence of intraday 61.8% retrace at ~112.43k, session VWAP/POC resistance 112.6–112.9k, price below daily pivot, and momentum still negative with RSI not yet oversold.
• Entry: Sell the bounce at 112,430–112,600. Optimal single print for order: 112,430 (aligns with 61.8% retracement).
• Stop (invalidation; for risk planning): 113,550 (above R1 and today’s supply shelf; clear break signals squeeze into 114.0–114.5k).
• Target (24h take profit): 110,150 (just above the Aug 25 close/psychological 110k; within 1×ATR from entry, high fill probability).
• Risk/Reward: From 112,430 entry, risk ≈ 1,120–1,300 pts to stop, reward ≈ 2,280 pts to TP; R:R ≈ 1:1.8–2.0.

9. What would change my mind

• A firm hourly close above 113,350 with acceptance (multiple bars) flips short-term bias to neutral/up, opening 114.0–114.5k. A daily reclaim of 115.8k (20D SMA) would neutralize the broader bearish skew.

10. Bottom line

• Sellers maintain control below 112.9–113.3k. The highest-odds 24h path is a fade of a retracement into 112.4–112.6k with a push toward 110.1k. Use the 113.55k area as line-in-the-sand for invalidation.