BTC poised for a relief pop: buying the 108.7k dip to target 111.3k in the next 24 hours

Step-by-step market read (multi-timeframe)

1. Context and structure

• Asset: BTC/USD. Current price ~109,115. Data through 2025-08-31 20:58 UTC.
• Bigger picture: From mid-July peak (~124.5k high on 8/14) BTC corrected to a late-Aug swing low around 107.44–107.56 (8/29–8/30). Since then, price is basing in a tight 108.3–109.5 range. Short-term trend is down, but price is probing a mature support shelf developed across June/July (105–110k).
• Market structure: Lower highs and lower lows since 8/13 (bearish), but last 48–72 hours show loss of downside momentum and tight consolidation near the lows (possible accumulation/absorption).

2. Key horizontal levels (confluence of S/R, prior highs/lows, closes)

• Major resistance cluster above: 111.3k (Fib 23.6%), 112.5k (8/28 close), 113.7k (Fib 38.2%), 114.3–115.1k (daily supply band and Kijun/Tenkan vicinity), 116.9–117.5k (Fib 61.8% / prior balance).
• Near-term resistance: 109.35–109.45k (R1 pivot from 8/30, intraday swing highs), 109.88–110.0k (R2/pysch), 110.8–111.0k (R3 and prior intraday failure zone), 111.3k (23.6% retracement from 124.46 → 107.56).
• Support: 108.30–108.50k (multiple hourly touch/holds), 107.44–107.56k (late-Aug double-bottom zone), 106.91k (S2 pivot), 105.7–106.0k (June congestion top). Strong demand region: 107–108.5k.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-to-high 30s to low 40s after the selloff; sitting just above oversold with bullish divergence potential (price made a marginal LL around 8/30 vs 8/29 while momentum likely improved). This typically favors short-term mean reversion up.
• 1H RSI: oscillating 40–55; recent higher lows in RSI as price holds above 108.7–108.8 suggests improving intraday momentum.
• MACD (daily, est.): Below zero with flattening histogram — selling impulse fading; potential for a weak bullish cross if price pushes into 110–111k.
• MACD (1H, est.): Close to crossing above signal or already modestly positive; fits with a grind up scenario.

4. Trend metrics (MAs/EMAs)

• Daily 20SMA: est. ~114–115k; price below (bearish bias). 50SMA ~115–117k; also overhead resistance. 200SMA likely much lower (long-term trend still up overall).
• 1H 20/50 EMA: Price slightly above both and EMAs curling upward — intraday bullish tilt within a broader corrective trend.

5. Volatility and range (ATR/Bands)

• Daily ATR (est.): ~2.0–2.8k. Next 24h expected swing in the ±1.5–2.2k range.
• Daily Bollinger Bands: Price recently tagged/pressed lower band near 108k; band expansion on 8/29, now starting to compress. Mean reversion path points toward the mid-band (20DMA) but that’s far (~114–115k); near-term a move toward 110.8–111.3k is more realistic.
• 1H Bollingers: Mild squeeze after contraction; bias to resolve upward given price holds above mid-band and rising lower band.

6. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Late August down leg had elevated volume (8/25, 8/29), indicating capitulatory pressure; subsequent sessions show lower but steady volume during basing.
• OBV (1H, est.): Gradual improvement since 08:00–18:00 UTC window; minor distribution at 19:00 but no breakdown — suggests dip buying below 109k.
• Weekend into Asia/Europe open dynamic: Often produces a small volatility pop. With US Labor Day holiday, crypto can see cleaner order flow from Asia/EU; thin liquidity can exaggerate moves through nearby stops.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing high 124.46k on 8/14 to swing low 107.56k on 8/29; range ≈ 16.9k using high, ≈16.9k; or ~16.9k/16.9k; using closes yields similar confluence)

• 23.6%: ~111.3k — first strong retracement magnet.
• 38.2%: ~113.7k — aligns with daily supply and prior congestion.
• 50%: ~116.0–116.2k — broad resistance near 7/31–8/7 balance.
• 61.8%: ~118.3–118.7k — heavy overhead supply. Near-term target zone for a relief bounce is the 110.8–111.3k area.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan/Kijun above price (est. mid-114s). Chikou likely below price — overall bearish regime. But when far below Kijun, price often reverts toward it — supportive of a bounce before reassessing deeper resistance.

9. Elliott wave / pattern read (heuristic)

• The leg from ~124.5k to ~107.5k resembles an ABC corrective swing with a completed C into 8/29–8/30. The tight range and failure to extend lower suggests the first impulse of a counter-trend move may be brewing. Expect an initial i–ii–iii structure potentially reaching 110.8–111.3k (wave iii objective) before consolidation.

10. Market profile / VWAP / pivots (short-term)

• 8/30 Classic pivots: PP ≈ 108.39k; R1 ≈ 109.34k; R2 ≈ 109.88k; R3 ≈ 110.83k; S1 ≈ 107.86k; S2 ≈ 106.91k.
• Current price is above PP and near the R1/R2 ladder — a constructive posture. A push through 109.35 opens 109.9 then 110.8–111.0.
• Session VWAP (intraday est.): ~108.9–109.0k; price hugging slightly above — buyers defending value.

11. Liquidity and stop zones

• Below: 108.50/108.30 (local lows) and 107.56/107.44 (late-Aug sweep). Dips into 108.3–108.7k are likely defended first pass; deeper sweep to ~107.8–108.0k would be the maximal pain probe before reversal.
• Above: 109.35–109.45k (breakout stops), then 110.0 and 110.8–111.3k (cluster of resting offers/stop into Fib 23.6%).

12. Synthesis and 24h path probability

• Base case (≈60%): Minor dip early Asia to 108.6–108.8k, then grind higher, breaking 109.35/109.9 to test 110.8–111.3k. Expect sellers into first touch; end-of-window close likely 110.2–111.0k.
• Bear alternative (≈25%): Sweep of 108.3k; if it fails to reclaim 108.8 quickly, a run to 107.8 and even 107.5 is possible before bouncing. Would still likely close the 24h window back within 108.5–109.5 range unless broader risk-off triggers.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Strong squeeze through 111.3k into 112.0–112.5k on thin liquidity; less likely without a catalyst.

13. Risk/reward and trade selection

• The best asymmetric setup is a tactical long into 110.8–111.3k targeting the first major retracement and R3 confluence.
• Optimal entry: Buy on a modest pullback toward 108.6–108.8k (above the 1H EMA cluster and near prior value). This provides a clear invalidation below 108.3/107.9 while capturing upside to 111.3.
• Take-profit: 111.25–111.35k (front-run Fib 23.6% and R3 to get filled before supply). This aligns with the expected 24h range expansion.

14. Sizing and contingency (informational)

• If not filled on pullback, an alternative momentum entry is a breakout buy through 109.40k, targeting 110.80k first, then 111.25k. For the single output, we’ll specify the pullback entry for best R:R.

Conclusion: Short-term bias is for a relief bounce within a broader corrective regime. Expect a 24h range of roughly 107.8k–111.5k with a directional skew higher toward 110.8–111.3k. Favor a tactical Buy on dip with TP into 111.25k.